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  5. > Ethiopia Agribusiness Report Q3 2016

Ethiopia Agribusiness Report Q3 2016

  • April 2016
  • -
  • Business Monitor International
  • -
  • 62 pages

Includes 3 FREE quarterly updates

BMI View: Production prospects look broadly favourable for Ethiopian agriculture over the long term.This will largely be due to more investment in the sector, along with higher incomes contributing toconsumption growth. We believe the sugar sector has the most potential, as investments in new sugarrefineries will make sugar one of the few reliable agricultural exports over the forecast period. In terms ofgrains, the country's food security will remain in a precarious situation due to recent droughts linked to ElNiño. Moreover, even with recent multinational interest in the country's farmland, Ethiopia is most likely toremain a net grains importer over the medium term.

Key Forecasts

- Sugar production growth to 2019/20: 148.8% to 746,500 tonnes. Investment by the state-run sugarcorporation is likely to lead to a significant increase in the area dedicated to sugar production. The aim ofthe plan is to make Ethiopia one of the world's top 10 largest sugar exporters.

- Coffee consumption growth to 2020: 4.2% to 3.1mn bags. Economic gains will boost consumption,although Ethiopians already have high per capita consumption rates compared with neighbouring Kenyaand Uganda.

- 2016 real GDP growth: 7.8% (down from 8.1% in 2015; predicted to average 7.5% from 2016 until2020).

- 2016 consumer price inflation: 10.5% average in 2016 (up from 10.4% in 2015).

Table Of Contents

Ethiopia Agribusiness Report Q3 2016
BMI Industry View 7
SWOT 9
Agribusiness 9
Industry Forecast 11
Sugar Outlook 11
Latest Updates 11
Table: Ethiopia - Sugar Production And Consumption Outlook 11
Table: Risks To Outlook 12
Structural Trends 12
Table: Sugar Production and Consumption (Ethiopia 2012-2020) 13
Grains Outlook 14
Latest Updates 14
Table: Ethiopia - Grains Production And Consumption Outlook 14
Table: Risks To Outlook 15
Structural Trends 15
Table: Corn Production and Consumption (Ethiopia 2012-2020) 17
Table: Wheat Production and Consumption (Ethiopia 2012-2020) 17
Coffee Outlook 18
Latest Updates 18
Table: Ethiopia - Coffee Production and Consumption Outlook 18
Table: Risks To Outlook 19
Structural Trends 19
Table: Coffee Production and Consumption (Ethiopia 2012-2020) 20
Commodities Price Analysis 21
Global Commodities Strategy 21
Table: Select Commodities - Performance And Bmi Forecasts 21
Featured Analysis 23
Consecutive Droughts To Threaten Food Security 23
Table: Ethiopia - Rainfall Seasons and Crops 24
Table: Grains Production and Consumption (Ethiopia, 2011-2019) 29
Upstream Analysis 30
Africa Machinery Outlook 30
Table: How Africa Compares With Other Regions 30
Table: Farm Size By Region (2012) 35
Africa GM Outlook 36
Africa Fertiliser Outlook 43
Regional Overview 50
Middle East and Africa Regional Overview 50
Demographic Forecast 56
Table: Population Headline Indicators (Ethiopia 1990-2025) 57
Table: Key Population Ratios (Ethiopia 1990-2025) 57
Table: Urban/Rural Population and Life Expectancy (Ethiopia 1990-2025) 58
Table: Population By Age Group (Ethiopia 1990-2025) 58
Table: Population By Age Group % (Ethiopia 1990-2025) 59
Methodology 61
Industry Forecast Methodology 61
Sector-Specific Methodology 62

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