Botswana Food and Drink Report Q3 2014

  • May 2014
  • -
  • Business Monitor International
  • -
  • 48 pages

Includes 3 FREE quarterly updates

BMI Industry View


Stabilising demand for Botswana's exports creates slightly brighter prospects for economic growth, which is reflected in our readjusted real GDP growth rate to 6.2% (up from 4.7%) in 2014. This modest optimism feeds through into the food and drink sector, as the consumer is expected to benefit from easing inflationary pressures and declining interest rates. High unemployment rates and a public sector wage freeze will prevent more significant growth in private spending over the forecast period.
We forecast a modest improvement in Botswana's growth prospects in 2014 mainly due to stabilising demand for diamonds, the country's key export, and low base effects. The latest data reveal that over the first six months of 2013 the value of Botswana's rough diamond exports posted growth of 9.7%, from USD1,677.2mn in H112 to USD1,840.2mn. This improved performance in the first half supports our view that growth will pick up from 2013. Exports of the precious stone account for around 70% of the total from the state, and so a nearly double-digit gain will help boost the overall figure, leading to our forecast of 8.0% growth in goods exports in 2013, followed by 10% growth in 2014. This and the rise of the country's coal industry will serve to narrow the country's current account deficit, and eventually turn this into a surplus.

Table Of Contents

BMI Industry View 5
BMI Industry View 5
Industry Forecast 6
Botswana - Food 6
Table: Food Consumption, Historical Data And Forecasts, 2011-2018 8
Bostwana - Drink 9
Table: Carbonated Soft Drinks Volume Sales, Production And Trade - Historical Data And Forecasts, 2011-2018 10
Table: Beer Volume Sales, Production And Trade - Historical Data And Forecasts, 2011-2018 11
Botswana - Mass Grocery Retail 12
Table: Mass Grocery Retail Sales, Historical Data And Forecasts, 2011-2018 12
Macroeconomic Forecast 13
Economic Analysis 13
Table: Botswana - Economic Activity 17
Industry Risk Reward Ratings 18
Sub-Saharan Africa Risk/Reward Ratings 18
Table: Sub-Saharan Africa Food and Drink Risk/Reward Ratings Q314 20
Table: Sub-Saharan Africa Food and Drink Risk/Reward Sub-Factor Ratings, Q314 (scores out of 10) 23
Market Overview 24
Global Industry Overview 28
Table: Food And Drink Core Views 37
Demographic Forecast 38
Table: Botswana's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000) 39
Table: Botswana's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total) 40
Table: Botswana's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020 41
Table: Botswana's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020 41
Glossary 42
Food and Drink 42
Mass Grocery Retail 42
Methodology 44
Industry Forecast Methodology 44
Sector-Specific Methodology 45
Sources 45
Risk/Reward Rating Methodology 46
Table: Food and Drink Risk/Reward Rating Indicators 47
Table: Weighting 48

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