Zimbabwe Autos Report Q3 2015

  • May 2015
  • -
  • Business Monitor International
  • -
  • 46 pages

Includes 3 FREE quarterly updates

According to Renault Group, which tracks industry sales in Zimbabwe, domestic auto sales contracted by26.6% year-on-year (y-o-y) in February to 431 units.
This brought sales for the first two months of 2015 to862 units, a decline of 26.6% y-o-y.Total domestic auto sales fell by 10.3% to 7,048 units in 2014 and we have downgraded our 2015 salesestimate, seeing the market contracting by 15.0% (versus our previous forecast for an increase of 5.0%).One major headwind we see for sales over the next few years is the recent increase in duties on car imports.While we believe this move is also influenced by the government's intention to develop the local autosector, we have previously voiced our view that the local production industry has too many flawedfundamentals to support the demand created by such protectionist policies.This has prompted us to downgrade our sales forecasts over the 2015-2019 period and we now expect onlymodest annual average sales decline of -0.8% over this period.

Table Of Contents

Zimbabwe Autos Report Q3 2015
BMI Industry View ....... 7
SWOT .... 8
Political ... 8
Economic . 9
Operational Risk ..... 11
Industry Forecast ...... 13
Sales .... 13
Table: Autos Total Market - Historical Data And Forecasts (Zimbabwe 2013-2019) . 13
Macroeconomic Forecast 16
Economic Analysis ... 16
Table: Economic Activity (Zimbabwe 2010-2019) . . . . . 19
Industry Risk Reward Ratings .. 20
Africa - Risk/Reward Index 20
Table: Sub-Saharan Africa Autos Risk/Reward Index . . 23
Competitive Landscape .... 24
Company Profile 26
Company Monitor .... 26
MEA A Good Starting Point ..... 27
Key Markets Also Bring Challenges ... 28
Regional Overview .... 31
Table: Sub-Saharan Africa Autos Production Investment . . . . . . 31
Global Industry Overview .. 33
Table: Passenger Car Sales March (CBUs) . . . . 33
US Slowdown A Temporary Glitch? ... 33
Europe Recovery Will Be Steady ....... 35
Asia Carries The BRIC States ... 36
Demographic Forecast ..... 38
Table: Population Headline Indicators (Zimbabwe 1990-2025) . . . . . . . 39
Table: Key Population Ratios (Zimbabwe 1990-2025) . 39
Table: Urban/Rural Population and Life Expectancy (Zimbabwe 1990-2025) . . 40
Table: Population By Age Group (Zimbabwe 1990-2025) . . . . . 40
Table: Population By Age Group % (Zimbabwe 1990-2025) . . 41
Methodology ...... 43
Industry Forecasts .. 43
Sector-Specific Methodology .... 44
Sources 44
Risk/Reward Index Methodology ....... 45
Table: Automotive Risk/Reward Index Indicators And Weighting Of Indicators . . . . . . 46

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