Kazakhstan Food and Drink Report Q3

• Publication date: May 2012
• Report size: 87 pages

Includes 3 FREE quarterly updates Despite the current slow-down in the performance of the country’s key export partners, we expect Kazakhstan’s private consumption growth forecast of 3.5% in the course of 2012 to be fulfilled. Our forecast is underpinned by factors such as the increase in average wages, low unemployment (at 5.5% in February 2012), and the strong retail trade growth, which came in at 11.5% year-on-year (y-o-y) in re...

Includes 3 FREE quarterly updates
Despite the current slow-down in the performance of the country’s key export partners, we expect Kazakhstan’s private consumption growth forecast of 3.5% in the course of 2012 to be fulfilled. Our forecast is underpinned by factors such as the increase in average wages, low unemployment (at 5.5% in February 2012), and the strong retail trade growth, which came in at 11.5% year-on-year (y-o-y) in real terms in the same month. The development of food and drinks values will be further boosted by the gradual expansion of the organised retail outside key urban areas.
Headline Industry Data (local currency, compound annual growth rate) - 2012 per capita food consumption: +9.3%; forecast to 2016: +10.7% - 2012 alcoholic drink value sales: +14.8%; forecast to 2016: +13.8% - 2012 soft drink value sales: +15.4%; forecast to 2016: +16.3% Key Industry Trends And Developments Kazakhstan Looking to Expand its Export Reach: In April 2012, the presidents of Indonesia and Kazakhstan met to discuss their countries’ cooperation in a variety of industrial fields, as reported by Kazinform. Both countries are experiencing rapid economic growth, and are looking to capitalise on the subsequent increase in commercial opportunities for exported products. Key areas slated for further discussions include agriculture (with Kazakhstan looking to export grain and grain-based products to Indonesia), food industry and energy, among a number of others.
Key Risks To Outlook Elevated Energy Prices Positing Upside Risks to GDP Growth: As an oil-exporting nation, Kazakhstan is set to benefit from elevated global energy prices in 2012, posing upside risks to our below-consensus 2012 headline growth forecast of 5.8%. However, the expected weak growth of Kazakhstan’s key export partners may counterbalance any benefits associated with higher average oil prices. Similarly, political and security risks remain elevated, weighing down the country’s investment potential.

Beverage Industry in Kazakhstan

BMI Industry View 5
SWOT Analysis ..... 6
Kazakhstan Food Industry SWOT .. 6
Kazakhstan Drinks Industry SWOT 7
Kazakhstan Mass Grocery Retail Industry SWOT...... 8
Business Environment ...... 9
BMI’s Core Global Industry Views ..... 9
Table: BMI’s Core Views ...... 19
Macroeconomic Outlook ..... 20
Table: Kazakhstan – Economic Activity ..... 22
Industry Forecast Scenario .... 23
Consumer Outlook 23
Food. 27
Food Consumption .. 27
Canned Food ... 29
Confectionery... 30
Processed Foods ..... 36
Table: Processed Meat – Production, Consumption & Trade – Historical Data & Forecast . 36
Table: Frozen Fish – Production, Consumption & Trade – Historical Data & Forecast 36
Table: Frozen fruit & vegetables . 39
Table: Bread Products And Jams & Jellies – Production, Consumption & Trade – Historical Data & Forecast ..... 40
Table: Pasta – Production, Consumption & Trade – Historical Data & Forecast ... 43
Dairy .. 44
Table: Dairy – Production, Consumption & Trade – Historical Data & Forecast ... 45
Drink 49
Alcoholic Drinks ..... 49
Table: Alcoholic Drinks Value/Volume Sales – Historical Data & Forecasts ... 50
Soft Drinks 52
Table: Soft Drinks Value/Volume Sales – Historical Data & Forecasts ..... 53
Hot Drinks 55
Table: Hot Drinks Value/Volume Sales – Historical Data & Forecasts ..... 56
Mass Grocery Retail .... 56
Trade ...... 57
Table: Trade Indicators – Historical Data & Forecasts . 58
Food 59
Key Industry Trends And Developments .. 59
Regional Expansion For Israeli Frutarom . 59
Wheat Exports To Increase ... 59
Kazakhstan Looking to Expand Agricultural Partnerships .... 60
Kazakhstan Eyeing Commercial Potential of Licorice .... 60
Hardee’s To Open 12 Restaurants In Kazakhstan ... 60
Market Overview .. 61
Food Processing ..... 61
Canned Food ... 62
Confectionery... 62
Agriculture 62
Drink ...... 64
Key Industry Trends And Developments .. 64
Beer Market Attracting Foreign Players .... 64
Growing Interest In Hot Drinks And Water ...... 64
Consolidation To Strengthen Carlsberg’s Presence In The Beer Segment .. 64
Market Overview .. 65
Alcoholic Drinks ..... 65
Soft Drinks 67
Hot Drinks 68
Mass Grocery Retail .. 69
Key Industry Trends And Developments .. 69
Expansion All Around .... 69
Market Overview .. 69
Competitive Landscape ... 72
Key Players .... 72
Table: Key Players: Kazakhstan's Food Sector 72
Table: Key Players: Kazakhstan's Drink Sector ...... 73
Table: Key Players In Kazakhstan's Mass Grocery Retail Sector . 74
Company Monitor ...... 75
Food. 75
Ardager Agricultural Financial Corporation.... 75
Konfety Karagandy (Karaganda Confectionery Company) ... 76
Drink 77
Efes Karaganda Brewery ...... 77
Carlsberg .. 78
Coca-Cola Içecek .... 79
Mass Grocery Retail .... 80
Vester . 80
Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology ..... 81
Table: Rewards 81
Table: Risks ..... 82
Weighting 82
Table: Weighting .... 82
BMI Food & Drink Industry Glossary .. 83
Food & Drink 83
Mass Grocery Retail .... 83
BMI Food & Drink Forecasting & Sourcing ...... 85
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts ..... 85
Sourcing .... 86