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Botswana Power Report Q3 2016

  • May 2016
  • -
  • Business Monitor International
  • -
  • 52 pages

Includes 3 FREE quarterly updates

BMI View: Coal-fired power is set to dominate Botswana's power sector as total power generation willgrow at an annual average of 38% over our 10-year forecast period. The majority of growth will occurfrom 2019-2020 as new coal-fired capacity comes online while existing capacity is upgraded, enablingBotswana to be less reliant on electricity imports.

Latest Updates And Structural Trends

- Botswana's government has stated that it will approach two South Korean firms. KEPCO and Daewoo,to construct a further 300 megawatt (MW) expansion at the Morupule B power station in the form ofseventh and eighth unit. If approved, this would total 600MW being added to the power station byindependent power producers, with Marubeni and Posco Energy having formed a joint venture for theconstruction of units 5 and 6.

- Shumba Energy has stated that it is currently looking to establish a 300MW export deal with SouthAfrican state-owned enterprise, Eskom. Last quarter we reported that Shumba is awaiting the finalisationof a power purchase agreement before construction can start on its Sechaba Coal Power Plant. Althoughthe plant has been touted to come online between 2018 and 2019, we are not including it in our forecastsas of yet due to a lack of progress updates.

- We have amended our forecasts for total transmission and distribution losses. We now forecast thattransmission and distribution losses will decrease from 125.0% of total output in 2016, to 51.2% in 2025.

Table Of Contents

Botswana Power Report Q3 2016
BMI Industry View 7
Table: Headline Power Forecasts (Botswana 2015-2021) 7
SWOT 8
Industry Forecast 10
Botswana Snapshot 10
Table: Country Snapshot: Economic And Demographic Data (Botswana 2015-2020) 10
Table: Country Snapshot: Economic And Demographic Data (Botswana 2020-2025) 10
Table: Country Snapshot: Economic and Demographic Data (Botswana 2020-2025) 10
Table: Country Snapshot: Power Sector 11
Botswana Power Forecast Scenario 12
Thermal Generation and Capacity Forecast 12
Table: Total Electricity Generation Data And Forecasts (Botswana 2014-2019) 14
Table: Total Electricity Generation Data And Forecasts (Botswana 2020-2025) 15
Table: Electricity Generating Capacity Data And Forecasts (Botswana 2014-2019) 15
Table: Electricity Generating Capacity Data And Forecasts (Botswana 2020-2025) 16
Electricity Consumption 16
Table: Total Electricity Consumption Data And Forecasts (Botswana 2014-2019) 17
Table: Total Electricity Consumption Data And Forecasts (Botswana 2020-2025) 17
Transmission and Distribution 17
Table: Electric Power TandD Losses Data And Forecasts (Botswana 2014-2019) 18
Table: Electric Power TandD Losses Data And Forecasts (Botswana 2020-2025) 19
Table: Trade Data And Forecasts (Botswana 2014-2019) 19
Table: Trade Data And Forecasts (Botswana 2020-2025) 19
Industry Risk/Reward Ratings 20
SSA Power RRI: Shifting Scores Amid A Deteriorating Outlook 20
Table: SSA Power Risk/Reward Ratings (Scores Out Of 100) 26
Botswana Power Risk/Reward Index 27
Rewards 27
Risks 27
Market Overview 29
Key Policies And Market Structure 29
Regulation And Competition 29
Pricing 29
SSA Key Policies/Market Structure 29
Competitive Landscape 33
Competitive Landscape 33
Regional Overview 38
Middle East And Africa - Regional Overview 38
Glossary 46
Table: Glossary Of Terms 46
Methodology 47
Methodology And Sources 47
Industry Forecast Methodology 47
Sources 50
Risk/Reward Index Methodology 50
Table: Power Risk/Reward Index Indicators 51
Table: Weighting Of Indicators 52

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