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Kenya Agribusiness Report Q3 2016

  • May 2016
  • -
  • Business Monitor International
  • -
  • 59 pages

Includes 3 FREE quarterly updates

BMI View: Kenya will continue to underperform its regional peers with regard to the development of itsagricultural sector. Despite COMESA granting a one-year extension to the sugar import safeguard, whichwill provide a short-term boost, we expect the country's sugar sector to remain regionally inefficient andtherefore to post very limited growth over the coming years. However, we continue to forecast steady coffeeproduction growth due to relatively high domestic prices and improvement in husbandry techniques. Kenyawill largely bypass the El Niño-related droughts currently affecting southern Africa, but the country willface more expensive corn imports due to higher regional corn prices.

Key Forecasts

- Corn production growth 2014/15 to 2019/20: 16.5% to 3.1mn tonnes. Corn production growth will befairly limited as subdued prices relative to previous years will limit plantings, while yield growth will bepoor. Most of the gains will be due to base effects.

- Wheat consumption growth 2016 to 2020: 15.5% to 2.1mn tonnes. Kenyans already have a high rateof wheat consumption by regional standards. Improvements in availability and growth in population andincomes will drive consumption.

- Coffee production growth 2015/16 to 2019/20: 25.6% to 980,000 60kg bags. Growth will be driven byincreased financial support from the government in the form of funds and debt relief. In addition, newcoffee varieties are likely to help boost yields.

- 2016 real GDP growth: 6.0% (up from 5.6% in 2014).

- 2016 consumer price inflation average: 7.0%, up from 6.6% in 2015.

Table Of Contents

Kenya Agribusiness Report Q3 2016
BMI Industry View 7
SWOT 10
Agribusiness 10
Industry Forecast 12
Coffee Outlook 12
Latest Updates 12
Table: Kenya - Coffee Production And Consumption Outlook 12
Table: Risks To Outlook 13
Structural Trends 13
Table: Coffee Production and Consumption (Kenya 2012-2020) 14
Grains Outlook 14
Latest Updates 14
Table: Kenya - Grains Production And Consumption Outlook 14
Table: Risks To Outlook 15
Structural Trends 15
Table: Grains Production and Consumption (Kenya, 2012-2020) 17
Sugar Outlook 17
Latest Updates 17
Table: Kenya - Sugar Production And Consumption Outlook 18
Table: Risks To Outlook 18
Structural Trends 18
Table: Sugar Production and Consumption (Kenya 2012-2020) 19
Commodities Price Analysis 20
Global Commodities Strategy 20
Table: Select Commodities - Performance And Bmi Forecasts 20
Upstream Analysis 22
Africa Fertiliser Outlook 22
Africa GM Outlook 29
Africa Machinery Outlook 36
Table: How Africa Compares With Other Regions 36
Table: Farm Size By Region (2012) 41
Downstream Analysis 42
Food 42
Latest Updates 42
Structural Trends 43
Table: Food Sales (Kenya 2013-2020) 44
Regional Overview 46
Middle East and Africa Regional Overview 46
Competitive Landscape 52
Table: Competitive Landscape 52
Demographic Forecast 53
Table: Population Headline Indicators (Kenya 1990-2025) 54
Table: Key Population Ratios (Kenya 1990-2025) 54
Table: Urban/Rural Population and Life Expectancy (Kenya 1990-2025) 55
Table: Population By Age Group (Kenya 1990-2025) 55
Table: Population By Age Group % (Kenya 1990-2025) 56
Methodology 58
Industry Forecast Methodology 58
Sector-Specific Methodology 59

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