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Mozambique Infrastructure Report Q3 2016

  • May 2016
  • -
  • Business Monitor International
  • -
  • 35 pages

Includes 3 FREE quarterly updates

BMI View: While budgetary pressures and the country's debt crisis will weigh on the government's abilityto execute planned road and social infrastructure projects over the short term, private investment in coalexport infrastructure will help to support construction industry growth over this period. The country'snascent gas sector is expected to take off after 2020 - bringing major benefits to the construction industry -but we note the risk of delay to key gas infrastructure projects remains high.

Latest Updates And Structural Trends

- We downgraded our forecasts for 2016 from 4.8% to 4.0% as the government will struggle to execute theroad and social infrastructure projects earmarked in its budget without the support of donor funding.

- Private investment in coal export infrastructure will drive growth over the short term, as coal productiongrowth remains stable and export facilities are upgraded. We forecast an annual average of 5.8% growthin real terms between 2016 and 2020.

- We note the potential for delays in the build of several key gas infrastructure projects owing to thestrained financial position of oil majors and therefore have not factored these developments into ourforecasts.

- We forecast the industry to expand at an annual average of 6.3% in real terms over our 10-year forecastperiod.

Table Of Contents

Mozambique Infrastructure Report Q3 2016
BMI Industry View 5
Table: 5-Year Forecast Scenario (2016-2020) 5
Table: Infrastructure Risk/Reward Index (2016) 6
SWOT 7
Infrastructure SWOT 7
Industry Forecast 9
Construction And Infrastructure Forecast Scenario 9
Table: 10-Year Forecast Scenario (2015-2025) 9
Industry Risk/Reward Ratings 16
Mozambique - Infrastructure Risk/Reward Index 16
Rewards 16
Risks 17
Industry Risk Reward Ratings 18
Table: SSA RRI 26
Methodology 28
Industry Forecast Methodology 28
Sector-Specific Methodology 29
Risk/Reward Index Methodology 33
Sector-Specific Methodology 34
Table: Infrastructure Risk/Reward Index Indicators 34
Table: Weighting Of Indicators 35

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