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Namibia Infrastructure Report Q3 2016

  • June 2016
  • -
  • Business Monitor International
  • -
  • 39 pages

Includes 3 FREE quarterly updates

BMI View: We continue to forecast a slowdown in construction industry growth over our 10-year forecastperiod as the country struggles to attract private investment in major developments and battlesmacroeconomic headwinds, owing to the subdued commodities outlook. Growth will be supported bysubstantial government spending in improving existing transport infrastructure and the energy and utilitiessector, as well as increased private interest in the potential of Namibia's real estate sector outside of thecapital city.

Forecast & Industry Developments

- We maintain our forecasts for 10.7% real growth in 2016 and average annual growth of 5.9% in realterms over our 10-year forecast period. Nominal industry is projected to rise from an estimatedUSD500mn in 2015 to USD1.1bn in 2025.

- The government introduced the Harambee Prosperity Plan, which outlines key projects to be fast-trackedbetween 2016 and 2020 to allow for flexibility in the plans outlined in its longer-term NationalDevelopment Plan IV, supported by the Medium Term Expenditure Framework. Transport infrastructureand the energy & utilities sector have been given substantial focus in the plan.

- The Namibian government has expressed a willingness to develop more projects on a public-privatepartnership basis, which would speed up the delivery of infrastructure and attract much-needed privateinvestment in the construction sector.

- We do not expect the development of gas infrastructure to plug the power deficit to take off during ourforecast period, owing the subdued commodities outlook and the government's struggle to attract privateinvestment into developing the industry.

Table Of Contents

Namibia Infrastructure Report Q3 2016
BMI Industry View 5
Table: 5-Year Forecast Scenario (Namibia 2016-2020) 5
Table: Infrastructure Risk/Reward Index (Namibia 2016) 6
SWOT 7
Industry Forecast 9
Construction And Infrastructure Forecast Scenario 9
Table: 10-Year Forecast Scenario (Namibia 2016-2025) 9
Industry Risk Reward Ratings 21
Namibia - Infrastructure Risk/Reward Index 21
Sub-Saharan Africa Risk/Reward Index 22
Table: SSA RRI 30
Methodology 32
Industry Forecast Methodology 32
Sector-Specific Methodology 33
Risk/Reward Index Methodology 37
Sector-Specific Methodology 38
Table: Infrastructure Risk/Reward Index Indicators 38
Table: Weighting Of Indicators 39

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