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Zambia Infrastructure Report Q3 2016

  • May 2016
  • -
  • Business Monitor International
  • -
  • 33 pages

Includes 3 FREE quarterly updates

BMI View: The Zambian construction industry will slow in 2016 after four consecutive years of doubledigitgrowth as public spending and investment in the mining sector are cut on the back of lower commodityprices. We expect a more moderate, yet healthy, expansion over our 10-year forecast to 2025, driven bycontinued investment into transport and energy projects.

Latest Updates And Structural Trends

- Cutbacks in Zambia's crucial mining sector and in public spending will see real growth slow to 6.0% in2016, down from 10.1% in 2015.

- Overspending and falling copper prices have restricted the government's current ability to invest ininfrastructure and we expect capital spending to be cut more drastically in the run-up to the 2016elections in August.

- In September 2015 Glencore announced it would immediately suspend its Mopani copper miningoperation for 18 months. This will hurt copper output as the mine accounted for 15% of Zambia's totalcopper production in 2014.

- We expect Hakainde Hichilema to win the 2016 presidential election as high levels of inflation andunemployment rally voters behind the opposition candidate. His pro-business policies could attract moreinvestment in the country and provide upside potential to our post-2016 forecasts.

Table Of Contents

Zambia Infrastructure Report Q3 2016
BMI Industry View 5
Table: Infrastructure - Construction Industry Forecasts (Zambia 2015-2025) 5
Table: Infrastructure Risk Reward Index (Zambia) 6
SWOT 7
Infrastructure SWOT 7
Industry Forecast 9
Construction And Infrastructure Forecast 9
Table: Construction And Infrastructure Industry Data (Zambia 2015-2025) 9
Industry Risk Reward Ratings 15
Zambia Risk/Reward Index 15
Rewards 15
Risks 15
Sub-Saharan Africa Risk/Reward Index 16
Table: SSA RRI 25
Methodology 26
Industry Forecast Methodology 26
Sector-Specific Methodology 27
Risk/Reward Index Methodology 31
Sector-Specific Methodology 32
Table: Infrastructure Risk/Reward Index Indicators 32
Table: Weighting Of Indicators 33

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