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Zambia Pharmaceuticals and Healthcare Report Q3 2016

  • July 2016
  • -
  • Business Monitor International
  • -
  • 52 pages

BMI View:

The Zambian government will continue to boost social expenditure as President Lungu attempts to gain public favour in light of the August general elections. Fiscal revenues will increase gradually, in line with the copper sector's slow recovery, but real GDP growth in Zambia will still remain subdued in 2016. Government expenditure maintains a focus on unproductive areas of the economy, such as public sector wages, while capital spending remains well below the amount necessary to improve the country's underdeveloped healthcare sector.

Headline Expenditure Forecast
- Pharmaceuticals: ZMW1.67bn (USD190mn) in 2015 to ZMW1.81bn (USD160mn) in 2016; +7.9% in local currency terms and -17.2% in US dollar terms. Forecast in US dollar terms increased compared to the previous quarter.
- Healthcare: ZMW9.48bn (USD1.10bn) in 2015 to ZMW10.75bn (USD960mn) in 2016; +13.4% in local currency terms and -12.9% in US dollar terms. Forecast in US dollar terms increased compared to the previous quarter.

Table Of Contents

Zambia Pharmaceuticals and Healthcare Report Q3 2016
BMI Industry View ... 5
Table: Headline Pharmaceuticals and Healthcare Forecasts (Zambia 2014-2020) 5
SWOT 7
Industry Forecast 9
Pharmaceutical Market Forecast .. 9
Table: Pharmaceutical Sales, Historical Data And Forecasts (Zambia 2012-2020) 12
Healthcare Market Forecast .. 13
Table: Healthcare Expenditure Trends, Historical Data And Forecasts (Zambia 2012-2020) 16
Table: Government Healthcare Expenditure Trends, Historical Data And Forecasts (Zambia 2012-2020) 16
Table: Private Healthcare Expenditure Trends, Historical Data And Forecasts (Zambia 2012-2020) . 16
Industry Risk Reward Index . 17
Middle East and Africa Risk/Reward Index - Q3 2016 . 17
Zambia Risk/Reward Index 25
Rewards ... 25
Risks 25
Regulatory Review 27
Market Overview ... 32
Healthcare Sector .. 35
Epidemiology 38
Demographic Forecast . 41
Table: Population Headline Indicators (Zambia 1990-2025) 42
Table: Key Population Ratios (Zambia 1990-2025) 42
Table: Urban/Rural Population and Life Expectancy (Zambia 1990-2025) . 43
Table: Population By Age Group (Zambia 1990-2025) 43
Table: Population By Age Group % (Zambia 1990-2025) . 44
Glossary . 46
Methodology .. 48
Pharmaceutical Expenditure Forecast Model .. 48
Healthcare Expenditure Forecast Model . 48
Notes On Methodology 49
Risk/Reward Index Methodology ... 50
Index Overview .. 51
Table: Pharmaceutical Risk/Reward Index Indicators . 51
Indicator Weightings .. 52

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