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Zimbabwe Power Report Q3 2016

  • May 2016
  • -
  • Business Monitor International
  • -
  • 50 pages

Includes 3 FREE quarterly updates

BMI View: Power capacity growth in Zimbabwe will remain muted over our 10-year forecast period. Someincrease is expected as the Hwange power plant receives more coal supply and the 300MW Kariba Southexpansion is completed in 2019. Ongoing generation deficits will be met by power imports from SouthAfrica.Latest Updates and Structural Trends

- Work on the 300 megawatt (MW) Kariba South expansion project is 40% complete according to newsreports.

We have factored the project into our forecasts, and expect it to come online by 2019.

- The Zimbabwean Minister of Energy has stated that they expect the 2,400MW Batoka Gorge hydropowerproject to be operational by 2023. However, we do not factor this into our forecasts until we see moreevidence of progress on the dam itself.

- We have marginally increased our thermal generation forecasts since last quarter due to increased outputat the Hwange coal-fired power plant. Hwange is now estimated to operate at a capacity of over 500megawatts (MW). We now expect thermal power to generate 1.9 terawatt hours (TWh) in 2016,increasing to 2.9TWh in 2025.

- The Zimbabwe Power Company (ZPC) has stated that it expects to reach financial closure for theexpansion of the Hwange power plant by the second half of 2016. We do not currently factor this into ourforecasts, but will monitor developments and implement them if we do see progress.

- The Zimbabwe Electricity Transmission and Distribution Company (ZETDC) has stated that it hassignificantly reduced load shedding. This has reportedly been achieved by increasing power imports,rolling out prepaid meters and increasing output at the Hwange coal-fired power plant.

Table Of Contents

Zimbabwe Power Report Q3 2016
BMI Industry View 7
Table: Headline Power Forecasts (Zimbabwe 2015-2021) 7
SWOT 8
Industry Forecast 9
Zimbabwe Snapshot 9
Table: Country Snapshot: Economic and Demographic Data (Zimbabwe 2014-2019) 9
Table: Country Snapshot: Economic and Demographic Data (Zimbabwe 2020-2025) 9
Table: Country Snapshot: Power Sector 9
Zimbabwe Power Forecast Scenario 10
Hydropower Generation And Capacity Forecast 10
Thermal Generation And Capacity Forecast 12
Electricity Generation And Power Generating Capacity 13
Table: Total Electricity Generation Data And Forecasts (Zimbabwe 2014-2019) 13
Table: Total Electricity Generation Data And Forecasts (Zimbabwe 2020-2025) 13
Table: Electricity Generating Capacity Data And Forecasts (Zimbabwe 2014-2019) 14
Table: Electricity Generating Capacity Data And Forecasts (Zimbabwe 2020-2025) 15
Electricity Consumption 15
Table: Total Electricity Consumption Data And Forecasts (Zimbabwe 2014-2019) 16
Table: Total Electricity Consumption Data And Forecasts (Zimbabwe 2020-2025) 16
Transmission and Distribution 16
Table: Electric Power TandD Losses Data And Forecasts (Zimbabwe 2014-2019) 17
Table: Electric Power TandD Losses Data And Forecasts (Zimbabwe 2020-2025) 17
Table: Trade Data And Forecasts (Zimbabwe 2014-2019) 18
Table: Trade Data And Forecasts (Zimbabwe 2020-2025) 18
Industry Risk Reward Index 19
Zimbabwe Power Risk/Reward Index 19
Rewards 19
Risks 19
SSA Power RRI: Shifting Scores Amid A Deteriorating Outlook 20
Table: SSA Power Risk/Reward Ratings (Scores Out Of 100) 26
Market Overview 27
Key Policies/Market Structure 27
Regulation And Competition 27
Pricing 27
SSA Key Policies/Market Structure 28
Competitive Landscape 31
Competitive Landscape 31
Competitive Landscape 31
Regional Overview 36
Middle East And Africa - Regional Overview 36
Glossary 44
Table: Glossary Of Terms 44
Methodology 45
Methodology And Sources 45
Industry Forecast Methodology 45
Sources 48
Risk/Reward Index Methodology 48
Table: Power Risk/Reward Index Indicators 49
Table: Weighting Of Indicators 50

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