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Tanzania Infrastructure Report Q3 2016

  • May 2016
  • -
  • Business Monitor International
  • -
  • 36 pages

Includes 3 FREE quarterly updates

BMI View: We adjusted our outlook for 2016 and 2017 from 10.2% real growth to 7.2%, in light of thecontinued uncertainty around the viability of the ambitious Bagamoyo Port project, which provided a majorupside to our short-term outlook. Nonetheless, our outlook for Tanzania's construction industry remainsupbeat and we forecasting expansion of 8.4% in real terms over our ten-year forecast period to 2025.Investment in transport logistics capacity will support growth, with movement in the nascent gas sectorexpected only after 2020, owing to depressed commodity prices. Inadequate power supply and allegationsof government corruption will continue to weigh on investor sentiment.

Latest Updates And Structural Trends

- We revised our forecasts downwards for the Tanzanian construction industry over 2016 and 2017 from10.2% real growth to 7.2%. Central to this decision is the ongoing uncertainty over the financial viabilityof the Bagamoyo Port project, which had provided a major upside to our short-term growth outlook.

- Our long-term outlook for the industry remains upbeat, expected to expand 8.4% over our forecast periodto 2025, above the Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) average of 6.3%. Nominal industry value will rise from anestimated USD5.1bn in 2015 to USD15.3bn in 2025, sustaining Tanzania's position as the second-largestconstruction market in East Africa, behind Ethiopia.

- Investment in the transport sector, particularly port and rail, will drive industry growth. The sector hasbeen the recipient of significant foreign investment inflows.

- Low commodity prices will hinder the government's plans to use its natural gas reserves to boost itsailing power supply.

- The hotel sector has the potential to spur industry expansion as the growing number of investmentactivities and growing tourism industry drive the need for international hotels and lodges in strategicareas.

Table Of Contents

Tanzania Infrastructure Report Q3 2016
BMI Industry View 5
Table: 5-Forecast Scenario (Tanzania 2016-2020) 5
Table: Infrastructure Risk/Reward Index (Tanzania 2016) 6
SWOT 7
Infrastructure SWOT 7
Industry Forecast 9
Construction And Infrastructure Forecast Scenario 9
Table: 10-Year Forecast Scenario (Tanzania 2015-2025) 9
Table: Transport - Major projects By Value (USDmn) 12
Industry Risk Reward Ratings 17
Tanzania - Infrastructure Risk/Reward Index 17
Rewards 17
Risks 18
Industry Risk Reward Ratings 19
Table: SSA RRI 27
Methodology 29
Industry Forecast Methodology 29
Sector-Specific Methodology 30
Risk/Reward Index Methodology 34
Sector-Specific Methodology 35
Table: Infrastructure Risk/Reward Index Indicators 35
Table: Weighting Of Indicators 36

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