Uganda Agribusiness Report Q3 2014

  • May 2014
  • -
  • Business Monitor International
  • -
  • 77 pages

Includes 3 FREE quarterly updates

BMI View:

We see potential for output growth in corn and coffee, two of the main crops in Uganda. For
coffee, we see Uganda as an East African leader in terms of exports, largely owing to government support for the sector, particularly new disease-resistant trees. Moreover, coffee prices have risen considerably in recent months, meaning farmers will be able to invest in their crops. We expect Uganda to remain a net corn exporter in the coming years, although most of its corn will be shipped regionally. The country is unlikely to compete with South Africa and Zambia as Sub-Saharan Africa's largest corn exporters.

Key Views

- Coffee production growth to 2017/18: 6.0% to 3.8mn 60kg bags. The Uganda Coffee Development Authority's production campaign has developed new disease-resistant coffee trees; this is expected to boost yields over our forecast period. However, lower average coffee prices over the medium term will act as a constraint on production growth.

Table Of Contents

BMI Industry View 7
SWOT 8
Agribusiness 8
Business Environment 10
Industry Forecast 11
Grains Outlook 11
Table: Uganda Corn Production and Consumption, 2013-2018 11
Table: Uganda Corn Production and Consumption, 2008-2013 16
Coffee Outlook 17
Table: Uganda Coffee Production and Consumption, 2013-2018 18
Table: Uganda Coffee Production and Consumption, 2008-2013 18
Commodity Price Analysis 19
Monthly Softs Update 19
Table: Select Commodities - Performance and BMI Forecasts 29
Monthly Grains Update 29
Table: Select Commodities - Performance and Forecasts 38
Upstream Analysis 39
Africa Machinery Outlook 39
Africa GM Outlook 46
Africa Fertiliser Outlook 51
Downstream Analysis 56
Drink 56
Alcoholic Drinks 56
Table: Beer Value/Volume Sales - Historical Data and Forecasts, 2011-2018 56
Soft Drinks 58
Table: Carbonated Soft Drinks Volume Sales, Production and Trade - Historical Data and Forecasts, 2011-2018 58
Hot Drinks 58
Table: Tea Volume Sales, Production and Trade - Historical Data and Forecasts, 2011-2018 58
Mass Grocery Retail 59
Table: Mass Grocery Retail Sales - Historical Data and Forecasts, 2011-2018 60
Food 61
Food Consumption 61
Table: Food Consumption Indicators - Historical Data and Forecasts, 2011-2018 62
Confectionery 63
Table: Sugar Confectionery Volume Sales, Production and Trade - Historical Data and Forecasts, 2010-2017 63
Dairy 63
Table: Dairy Volume Sales, Production and Trade - Historical Data and Forecasts, 2011-2018 63
Regional Overview 65
Demographic Forecast 72
Table: Uganda's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000) 73
Table: Uganda's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total) 74
Table: Uganda's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020 75
Table: Uganda's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020 75
Methodology 76
Industry Forecast Methodology 76
Sector-Specific Methodology 77

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