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Uganda Agribusiness Report Q3 2016

  • April 2016
  • -
  • Business Monitor International
  • -
  • 57 pages

Includes 3 FREE quarterly updates

BMI View: We see potential for output growth in corn and coffee, two of the main crops in Uganda. Forcoffee, we see Uganda as an East African leader in terms of exports, largely owing to government supportfor the sector and new disease-resistant trees. Moreover, coffee prices are higher y-o-y, meaning farmerswill be able to invest in their crops. We expect Uganda to remain a net corn exporter in the coming years,although most of its corn will be shipped regionally. The country is unlikely to compete with South Africaand Zambia to become one of Sub-Saharan Africa's largest corn exporters. Food security will be a concernin the short term owing to droughts affecting regional neighbours, leading to more corn exports andreduced domestic supply.

Key Forecasts

- Coffee production growth to 2019/20: 16.7% to 4.2mn 60kg bags. The Uganda Coffee DevelopmentAuthority's production campaign has developed new disease-resistant coffee trees, which are expected toboost yields over our forecast period. However, lower average coffee prices over the medium term willact as a constraint on production growth.

- Corn consumption growth to 2020: 15.9% to 3.1mn tonnes. Growth in demand will come from thecountry's livestock sector, which is growing in response to higher demand. Overall, however, cornconsumption will largely be guided by changes in population.

- 2016 real GDP growth: 5.0% (down from 5.4% in 2015; predicted to average 5.8% from 2016 to 2020).

- 2016 consumer price inflation average: 7.2% (up from 4.7% in 2015).

Table Of Contents

Uganda Agribusiness Report Q3 2016
BMI Industry View 7
Agribusiness 10
Industry Forecast 12
Grains Outlook 12
Latest Updates 12
Table: Uganda - Corn Production And Consumption Outlook 12
Table: Risks To Outlook 13
Structural Trends 13
Table: Corn Production and Consumption (Uganda 2012-2020) 15
Coffee Outlook 16
Latest Updates 16
Table: Uganda - Coffee Production And Consumption Outlook 16
Table: Risks To Outlook 16
Structural Trends 17
Table: Coffee Production and Consumption (Uganda 2012-2020) 18
Commodity Price Analysis 19
Global Commodities Strategy 19
Table: Select Commodities - Performance And Bmi Forecasts 19
Upstream Analysis 21
Africa GM Outlook 21
Africa Fertiliser Outlook 28
Africa Machinery Outlook 35
Table: How Africa Compares With Other Regions 35
Table: Farm Size By Region (2012) 40
Downstream Analysis 41
Food 41
Latest Updates 41
Structural Trends 42
Table: Food Sales (Uganda 2013-2020) 42
Regional Overview 45
Middle East and Africa Regional Overview 45
Demographic Forecast 51
Table: Population Headline Indicators (Uganda 1990-2025) 52
Table: Key Population Ratios (Uganda 1990-2025) 52
Table: Urban/Rural Population and Life Expectancy (Uganda 1990-2025) 53
Table: Population By Age Group (Uganda 1990-2025) 53
Table: Population By Age Group % (Uganda 1990-2025) 54
Methodology 56
Industry Forecast Methodology 56
Sector-Specific Methodology 57

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