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Uganda Agribusiness Report Q3 2015

  • May 2015
  • -
  • Business Monitor International
  • -
  • 79 pages

Includes 3 FREE quarterly updates

BMI View:
We see potential for output growth in corn and coffee, two of the main crops in Uganda. Forcoffee, we see Uganda as an East African leader in terms of exports, largely owing to government supportfor the sector, particularly new disease-resistant trees. Moreover, coffee prices are higher year-on-year,meaning farmers will be able to invest in their crops. We expect Uganda to remain a net corn exporter inthe coming years, although most of its corn will be shipped regionally. The country is unlikely to competewith South Africa and Zambia to become one of Sub-Saharan Africa's largest corn exporters.
Key Views
- Coffee production growth to 2018/19: 18.6% to 4.1mn 60kg bags. The Uganda Coffee DevelopmentAuthority's production campaign has developed new disease-resistant coffee trees; this is expected toboost yields over our forecast period. However, lower average coffee prices over the medium term willact as a constraint on production growth.- Corn consumption growth to 2019: 9.2% to 3.03mn tonnes. Growth in demand will come from thecountry's livestock sector, which is growing in response to higher demand. Overall, however, cornconsumption will largely be guided by changes in population.

Table Of Contents

Uganda Agribusiness Report Q3 2015
BMI Industry View ...... 7
SWOT ............ 8
Agribusiness ...... 8
Operational Risk ............. 10
Industry Forecast ..... 12
Grains Outlook 12
Table: Corn Production and Consumption (Uganda 2014-2019) . . . . 13
Table: Corn Production and Consumption (Uganda 2009-2014) . . . . 18
Coffee Outlook . 18
Table: Coffee Production and Consumption (Uganda 2014-2019) . . 19
Table: Coffee Production and Consumption (Uganda 2009-2014) . . 19
Commodity Price Analysis ...... 21
Monthly Softs Update ....... 21
Table: Select Commodities - Performance and Bmi Forecasts . 30
Monthly Grains Update .... 30
Table: Select Commodities - Performance and Bmi Forecasts . 38
Upstream Analysis ... 39
Americas GM Outlook ...... 39
Americas Machinery Outlook ............ 45
Table: Select Companies - Sales Forecasts By Region (Company-based estimates) . 47
Americas Fertiliser Outlook .............. 52
Downstream Analysis ............. 57
Mass Grocery Retail ........ 57
Table: Mass Grocery Retail Sales By Format - Historical Data and Forecasts (Uganda 2014-2019) . . 58
Drink ............. 58
Alcoholic Drinks ............ 58
Table: Alcoholic Drinks Value/Volume Sales, Production and Trade - Historical Data and Forecasts (Uganda 2014-2019) . . . 59
Soft Drinks ..... 59
Table: Carbonated Drinks Value/Volume Sales, Production and Trade - Historical Data and Forecasts (Uganda 2014-2019) . 60
Hot Drinks ..... 61
Table: Hot Drink Value/Volume Sales, Production and Trade - Historical Data and Forecasts (Uganda 2014-2019) . . . . 61
Food .............. 62
Food Consumption ......... 62
Table: Food Consumption Indicators - Historical Data and Forecasts (Uganda 2012-2019) . . . . 64
Confectionery . 65
Table: Confectionery Value/Volume Sales, Production and Trade - Historical Data and Forecasts (Uganda 2012-2019) 65
Dairy ............ 65
Table: Dairy Volume Sales, Production and Trade - Historical Data and Forecasts (Uganda 2014-2019) . . . . 65
Regional Overview ... 66
Middle East and Africa Regional Overview ........... 66
Table: Foreign Investment In Africa's Palm Oil Sector 69
Demographic Forecast ........... 73
Table: Population Headline Indicators (Uganda 1990-2025) 74
Table: Key Population Ratios (Uganda 1990-2025) . . . 74
Table: Urban/Rural Population and Life Expectancy (Uganda 1990-2025) . . . . . 75
Table: Population By Age Group (Uganda 1990-2025) 75
Table: Population By Age Group % (Uganda 1990-2025) . . . 76
Methodology ............. 78
Industry Forecast Methodology ....... 78
Sector-Specific Methodology ........... 79

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