Market Competitive Intensity (MCI): Bulgaria
Introduction
Datamonitor's Market Competitive Intensity Index (MCI) is a robust framework for measuring and benchmarking the development of competitiveness and market conditions in a range of gas and electricty markets. The MCI assessment draws on nine underlying metrics grouped into three broad clusters: Market framework; Supplier Push and Customer Pull.
Scope
Insight into the current levels of competitiveness in the gas and power markets of the EU 27 and 6 related markets. Analysis of the commercial opportunities and threats in the selected markets both currently and in 2010. A benchmarking of the factors driving competition and market entry in the gas and power sectors of the selected markets.
Highlights
Datamonitor's MCI Index offers a robust framework for measuring the development of utility Market Competitive Intensity. MCI scores are calculated using two different methods. The first, the simple weighted average (additive) measure shows overall competitive intensity. The second, the multipliative method, is more complex. It prevents markets with an overly wide spread of underlying raw scores from exerting undue influence over, or skewing, the final result.
Reasons to Purchase
Assess the competitive environments of gas and power markets both now and in the future. Gain insight into value chain factors driving market competitiveness and how each individual part of the chain will evolve as competition develops. Screen future market entry plans against the MCI scores to highlight key areas of potential risk and opportunity. .
DATAMONITOR VIEW 1
CATALYST 1
SUMMARY 1
ANALYSIS 2
Introduction: Datamonitor's MCI Index offers a robust framework for measuring the development of energy Market Competitive Intensity 2
The MCI Index shows how attractive a particular market is to new entrants in terms of the competitive environment 2
The MCI assessment draws on nine underlying metrics grouped into three broad clusters: Market framework; Supplier Push; Customer Pull. 3
The MCI Index measures competitive intensity in EU 27 and 6 related markets 4
The MCI Index assesses markets as they stood in early 2008 and forecasts conditions likely to be prevailing three years after full market opening 4
Each of the nine pillars has an assessment scale to allow for the comparison of diverse markets (see appendix for more details) 5
Two differing overall MCI scores are calculated to ensure full clarity of results 5
A simple weighted average (additive) measure shows overall competitive intensity 5
A weighted multiple (multiplicative) measure shows overall competitive intensity 5
The MCI framework has a number of applications for your organization 6
Context: Both the Bulgarian gas and power markets show only minimal development over the forecast period 7
Bulgaria's Customer Pull metrics show particular weakness both now and at the end of the forecast period 7
Bulgaria's weak gas metrics create an MCI score very much at the lower end of the European scale 7
Power MCI: Most of Bulgaria's power metrics remain in the lower half of the scale 9
Aside from a relatively strong regulatory score, Bulgaria's Market Framework metrics remain modest at the end of the forecast period 9
Effectiveness of Regulator [2008: 5/10 2010: 6/10] 9
Ease of Third Party Access [2008: 3/10 2010: 3.5/10] 10
Effectiveness of Balancing and Data Transfer [2008: 2.5/10 2010: 3/10] 10
All of Bulgaria's Market Framework metrics show little improvement both at the current time and in the near term future 10
Wholesale Market Fragmentation [2008: 4/10 2010: 6/10] 10
Retail Market Fragmentation [2008: 4/10 2010: 4/10] 10
Traded Market Maturity [2008: 0/10 2010: 0/10] 10
The relatively undeveloped nature of the market serves to constrain the Customer Pull metrics 11
Access to Market Information and Assistance [2008: 2/10 2010: 3.5/10] 11
Consumer Representation [2008: 1/10 2010: 2/10] 11
Propensity to Switch [2008: 1/10 2010: 3.5/10] 11
Gas MCI: All of Bulgaria's gas metrics score at the lower end of the scale 12
Despite a reasonable regulatory score, Bulgaria's Market Framework metrics are constrained by the TPA and balancing regimes 12
Effectiveness of Regulator [2008: 5/10 2010: 6.5/10] 12
Ease of Third Party Access [2008: 1.5/10 2010: 2.5/10] 12
Effectiveness of Balancing and Data Transfer [2008: 1/10 2010: 2.5/10] 13
All of the Market Framework factors remain firmly at the bottom end of the scoring scale during the forecast period 13
Wholesale Market Fragmentation [2008: 0/10 2010: 1/10] 13
Retail Market Fragmentation [2008: 2/10 2010: 3.5/10] 13
Traded Market Maturity [2008: 0/10 2010: 1/10] 13
Customer Pull metrics remain modest both at the current time and at the end of the forecast period 13
Access to Market Information and Assistance [2008: 0/10 2010: 1.5/10] 13
Consumer Representation [2008: 2/10 2010: 2.5/10] 13
Propensity to Switch [2008: 1/10 2010: 2.5/10] 13
Outlook: Bulgaria's lack of competitive intensity restricts the commercial opportunities for new entrants 14
Competitive intensity in both the gas and power markets will remain modest and is unlikely to develop for some considerable time 14
Power scores 14
Gas scores 14
Commercial opportunities remain limited in the Bulgarian power market, though potentially exist in the generation sector 15
New Market Entrant Opportunities, Power 15
New Market Entrant Threats, Power 15
Commercial opportunities in the Bulgarian gas sector are limited, but potentially exist if wholesale gas supplies can be secured 15
New Market Entrant Opportunities, Gas 15
New Market Entrant Threats, Gas 15
MCI Scores 16
APPENDIX 19
Definitions 19
Ask the analyst 24
List of Tables
Table 1: Market Competitive Intensity, Bulgaria 2008-10 16
Table 2: MCI Additive, Europe 2008-2010 17
Table 3: MCI Multiplicative, Europe 2008-2010 18
List of Figures
Figure 1: MCI Assessment Scale 2
Figure 2: MCI Assessment Framework 3
Figure 3: MCI Market Coverage 4
Figure 4: MCI Scales 5
Figure 5: MCI Applications 6
Figure 6: European Power Market Competitive Intensity, 2008-10 7
Figure 7: European Gas Market Competitive Intensity, 2008-10 8
Figure 8: Power Market Competitive Intensity, Bulgaria 9
Figure 9: Gas Market Competitive Intensity, Bulgaria 12
Figure 10: Market Competitive Intensity, Bulgaria 14
Figure 11: Scale for MCI Assessment, Effectiveness of Regulator 19
Figure 12: Scale for MCI Assessment, Ease of Third Party Access 20
Figure 13: Scale for MCI Assessment, Effectiveness of Balancing and Data Transfer 20
Figure 14: Scale for MCI Assessment, Wholesale Market Fragmentation 21
Figure 15: Scale for MCI Assessment, Retail Market Fragmentation 21
Figure 16: Scale for MCI Assessment, Traded Market Maturity 22
Figure 17: Scale for MCI Assessment, Access to Market Information and Assistance 22
Figure 18: Scale for MCI Assessment, Consumer Representation 23
Figure 19: Scale for MCI Assessment, Propensity to Switch 23
