Kenya Autos Report Q3 2014

  • May 2014
  • -
  • Business Monitor International
  • -
  • 61 pages

Includes 3 FREE quarterly updates

As a result of a data released from the Kenyan Bureau of Statistics BMI has slightly downgraded its GDP forecast for 2014 to 5.7%, down from 6%. Even this slower acceleration will still be a significant improvement compared to the low growth seen between 2008 and 2012, when annual real GDP expansion averaged just 3.8%. Further supporting vehicle sales is the rising private consumption and increased dealer presence in Kenya. As a result BMI is forecasting total new and used vehicle sales growth to come in at 134,830 units in 2018.

According to the Kenyan Motor Industry Association, in the eight months to August 2013 new vehicle dealers sold 9,135 units compared to 8,117 units a year earlier.
BMI expects that as the passenger car market continues to face pressures from used vehicle imports industry players will look to the commercial vehicle segment to expand their market share. In line with our view, Scania who currently accounts for approximately 50% of the heavy truck market, has announced an investment of KES2.4bn (USD27.7mn) for Kenya, part of which has been spent on a new office in Nairobi, which will serve its East African business. Toyota Motor has entered the tractor market after entering the bus and truck market after facing declining market share in H1 2013. Following the Dubai-based conglomerate Al Futtaim group offering of USD86mn to acquire Kenyan car retailer CMC Holdings we have seen further progress with the deal with the offer to existing shareholders of CMC now open. BMI expects that there is potential for more such deals and the recent growth in Kenya's CV segment suggests there should be room for several major players.

Table Of Contents

BMI Industry View 7
SWOT 9
Political 9
Economic 10
Business Environment 11
Industry Forecast 13
Table: Autos Total Market - Historical Data And Forecasts (Kenya 2012-2018) 13
Table: Passenger Car Market - Historical Data And Forecasts (Kenya 2012-2018) 13
Table: Commercial Vehicle Market - Historical Data And Forecasts (Kenya 2012-2018) 14
Table: Motorcycle Market - Historical Data And Forecasts (Kenya 2012-2018) 15
Macroeconomic Forecasts 19
Economic Outlook 19
Table: Kenya - GDP By Expenditure 26
Industry Risk Reward Ratings 27
Table: Autos Risk/Reward Ratings - Sub-Saharan Africa 30
Competitive Landscape 31
Company Profile 37
Company Monitor 37
Regional Overview 40
Global Industry Overview 48
Table: Passenger Car Sales March 2014 48
European Growth Gathers Momentum 48
Japan Prepares For Tax Fallout 50
China Wobble Adds To BRIC Weakness 51
Demographic Forecast 54
Table: Kenya's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000) 55
Table: Kenya's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total) 56
Table: Kenya's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020 57
Table: Kenya's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020 57
Methodology 58
Industry Forecasts 58
Sector-Specific Methodology 59
Sources 59
Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology 60
Table: Automotive Risk/Reward Ratings Indicators And Weighting Of Indicators 61

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