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  4. > Kenya Autos Report Q3 2015

Kenya Autos Report Q3 2015

  • May 2015
  • -
  • Business Monitor International
  • -
  • 60 pages

Includes 3 FREE quarterly updates

We hold an upbeat outlook for the Kenyan automotive sector as a result of its accelerating privateconsumption rates, rising fixed investment and its status as the commercial hub of the fast-growing EastAfrican Community (EAC).
In light of this, BMI forecasts that total first vehicle registrations growth over2015-2019 will average 10.6%, with significant upside risks to our forecast.BMI's Country Risk team continues to forecast strong growth in Kenya over our five-year forecast period to2019.
We currently forecast real GDP to grow 6.4% in 2015 and 6.3% in 2016, making Kenya the 10thfastest growing country in the Africa region, a significant milestone considering the much lower base fromwhich other most other Sub-Saharan Africa countries are growing.
We believe rising private consumptionwill account for the bulk of real growth, with consumption forecast to increase by 5.0% in 2015 and 6.0% in2016, and this will provide strong upward support to private car sales.

Table Of Contents

Kenya Autos Report Q3 2015
BMI Industry View ....... 7
SWOT .... 9
Political ... 9
Economic ....... 10
Operational Risk ..... 11
Industry Forecast ...... 13
Table: Autos Total Market - Historical Data And Forecasts (Kenya 2013-2019) . . . . . 13
Table: Passenger Car Market - Historical Data And Forecasts (Kenya 2013-2019) . . 13
Table: Commercial Vehicle Market - Historical Data And Forecasts (Kenya 2013-2019) . . . . 14
Table: Motorcycle Market - Historical Data And Forecasts (Kenya 2013-2019) . . . . . . 14
Table: Growing Opportunities . . 16
Macroeconomic Forecasts ....... 21
Economic Analysis ... 21
Table: Economic Activity (Kenya 2010-2019) . . 25
Industry Risk Reward Ratings .. 26
Africa - Risk/Reward Index 26
Table: Sub-Saharan Africa Autos Risk/Reward Index . . 28
Competitive Landscape .... 30
Company Profile 40
Company Monitor .... 40
MEA A Good Starting Point ..... 41
Key Markets Also Bring Challenges ... 42
Regional Overview .... 45
Table: Sub-Saharan Africa Autos Production Investment . . . . . . 45
Global Industry Overview .. 47
Table: Passenger Car Sales March (CBUs) . . . . 47
US Slowdown A Temporary Glitch? ... 47
Europe Recovery Will Be Steady ....... 49
Asia Carries The BRIC States ... 50
Demographic Forecast ..... 52
Table: Population Headline Indicators (Kenya 1990-2025) . . . 53
Table: Key Population Ratios (Kenya 1990-2025) . . . . . 53
Table: Urban/Rural Population and Life Expectancy (Kenya 1990-2025) . . . . . . 54
Table: Population By Age Group (Kenya 1990-2025) . 54
Table: Population By Age Group % (Kenya 1990-2025) . . . . . . . 55
Methodology ...... 57
Industry Forecasts .. 57
Sector-Specific Methodology .... 58
Sources 58
Risk/Reward Index Methodology ....... 59
Table: Automotive Risk/Reward Index Indicators And Weighting Of Indicators . . . . . . 60

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