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Zimbabwe Agribusiness Report Q3 2016

  • May 2016
  • -
  • Business Monitor International
  • -
  • 66 pages

Includes 3 FREE quarterly updates

BMI View: We expect Zimbabwe to remain a net corn importer over the longer term. Over the next fiveyears, we expect production of the grain to demonstrate moderate growth, although production will remainwell below the totals seen in the early 2000s and much of the growth will be in the form of a recovery. Weare more optimistic regarding the sugar sector, where access to key markets and potential for productivityimprovements will drive production over the long term. Although we forecast a domestic sugar marketsurplus, the sector remains below potential and our forecasts are relatively subdued despite ourexpectations for higher average prices than current levels in the coming years.

Key Forecasts

- Corn production to 2019/20: 37% on the 2015/16 level to 1mn tonnes. We project relatively stronggrowth over the long term, but the country will remain a net importer, as most of this growth is due tobase effects.

- Sugar production to 2019/20: 17% on the 2015/16 level to 584,800 tonnes. An overall improvement insugarcane yields, greater efficiency of mills and long-term access to export markets will be key drivers ofproduction growth.

- 2016 real GDP growth: 1.1%, up from -1.4% in 2015, forecast to average 3.6% between 2016 and2020.

- 2016 consumer price deflation: 1.4% annual average (compared to -2.4% in 2015).

Table Of Contents

Zimbabwe Agribusiness Report Q3 2016
BMI Industry View 7
SWOT 9
Agribusiness 9
Industry Forecast 11
Grains Outlook 11
Latest Updates 11
Table: Zimbabwe - Grains Production and Consumption Outlook 11
Table: Risks To Outlook 12
Structural Trends 12
Table: Corn Production and Consumption (Zimbabwe 2010-2020) 13
Sugar Outlook 14
Latest Updates 14
Table: Zimbabwe - Sugar Production And Consumption Outlook 14
Table: Risks To Outlook 15
Structural Trends 15
Table: Sugar Production and Consumption (Zimbabwe 2012-2020) 16
Commodity Price Analysis 17
Global Commodities Strategy 17
Table: SELECT COMMODITIES - PERFORMANCE AND BMI FORECASTS 17
Featured Analysis 19
Industry Trend Analysis 19
Table: Southern Africa - Drought Impact On Corn Production 21
Table: Corn - Production Balance and Self-Sufficiency (2012-2020) 32
Upstream Analysis 33
Africa GM Outlook 33
Africa Machinery Outlook 40
Table: How Africa Compares With Other Regions 40
Africa Fertiliser Outlook 46
Regional Overview 53
Middle East and Africa Regional Overview 53
Competitive Landscape 59
Table: Main Agribusiness Companies 59
Demographic Forecast 60
Table: Population Headline Indicators (Zimbabwe 1990-2025) 61
Table: Key Population Ratios (Zimbabwe 1990-2025) 61
Table: Urban/Rural Population and Life Expectancy (Zimbabwe 1990-2025) 62
Table: Population By Age Group (Zimbabwe 1990-2025) 62
Table: Population By Age Group % (Zimbabwe 1990-2025) 63
Methodology 65
Industry Forecast Methodology 65
Sector-Specific Methodology 66

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