LED Driver ICs, First Edition: Worldwide Forecasts

LED Driver ICs, First Edition: Worldwide Forecasts

The market for high-brightness LED driver ICs is increasingly diverse and presents significant growth opportunities. The dollar market is projected to grow significantly faster than unit sales. The higher dollar growth rate is a reflection of high growth rates for higher-cost LED driver ICs such as those used in LCD backlighting, signs, and automotive applications, compared with lower growth rates for lower-cost driver ICs used in mobile phone handsets and other portable applications. Among other important and surprising results, the report finds that 2008 will be the first year that the use of LED lighting exceeds the use of neon in general-purpose channel letter signs in North America.

These forecasts are based on a detailed analysis of 53 application sub-segments in the following areas: small LED backlight units (BLUs), (<7”); medium LCD BLUs, (7” to 15”); large LCD BLUs, (>15”); automobiles; light trucks; commercial trucks and buses; signs, signals and billboards; illumination; projection displays; and photographic lighting. In addition to developing the detailed unit sales forecasts, this analysis provides a detailed projection of average selling prices for LED driver ICs in each of the 53 application sub-segments. Those pricing forecasts, combined with the unit sales analysis, produce a detailed forecast of dollar sales trends in each of these application sub-segments.

This detailed analysis provides important insights into this growing market. The single largest opportunity for growth in the next five years will be in the various applications within the Signals, Signs and Billboards segment. That segment is already the second-largest unit segment. It is projected to have an above-average growth rate (31.9% versus the worldwide average of 24.5%). As a result, by 2013, the Signals, Signs and Billboards segment will be by far the largest opportunity for LED driver ICs. Because of the higher power levels of the drivers in that segment, it is already the largest dollar market in 2008. The Small LCD BLUs segment is the second-largest segment.

In 2008, the Signals, Signs and Billboards segment is less than twice as large as the Small LCD BLUs segment in terms of dollar sales. By the end of the period, dollar sales in the Signals, Signs and Billboards segment will be well over twice as large as the Small LCD BLUs segment. Much of the growth in this segment is driven by two developments: LEDs surpassed neon as the dominant lighting technology for so-called channel letter signs in 2007, and the rapid growth of LED video signs and billboards starting in 2008.

Automotive applications are also projected to grow rapidly during the forecast period. While applications such as headlights will present fairly modest potential, brake lights and other applications will drive high volumes of LED driver IC sales. This analysis reviews trends in 21 automotive application sub-segments across the major application categories of Automobiles, Light Trucks and Commercial Trucks and Buses.

Following the analysis of trends in specific application sub-segments, the report details trends in battery-powered applications versus ac-line powered applications. Today, battery-powered applications such as cell phone handsets, digital still cameras, and so on dominate unit sales. Their lower average selling prices puts battery-powered applications in second-place behind higher-priced ac-powered applications in terms of dollar sales. While ac-line powered applications are currently the largest segment in terms of dollar sales, they are also the fastest-growing. By the end of the forecast period, unit sales of ac-powered applications will rival unit sales of battery-powered applications for LED driver ICs. As a result, ac-powered applications such as signals, signs and billboards, illumination, and so on will increase their already dominant dollar market share between 2008 and 2013.

Introduction 6
Worldwide Forecast Overview 8
Pricing Assumptions 10
LCD BLU Forecasts 13
Small LCD BLUs 14
Medium LCD BLUs 16
Large LCD BLUs 20
Automobile, Truck and Bus Forecasts 22
Automobiles and Light Trucks 24
Commercial Trucks and Buses 27
Automotive Application Sub-segments 28
Signal, Sign and Billboard Forecasts 31
Illumination Forecasts 34
Projection Display Forecasts 37
Photographic Lighting Forecasts 40
Forecasts by Power Source 42
Battery-Powered Application Forecasts 45
AC Line-Powered Forecasts 48

Appendix A – Forecast Methodology 52
Appendix B – Characterizing General Illumination Lighting 53

TABLES

Table 1 – Worldwide Forecasts, by Application Segment, HB-LED Drivers (millions of units) 9
Table 2 – Worldwide Forecasts, by Application Segment, HB-LED Drivers (millions of dollars) 9
Table 3 – Automotive LED Drivers, Pricing Assumptions ($/unit) 11
Table 4 – Non-Automotive LED Drivers, Pricing Assumptions ($/unit) 12
Table 5 – Worldwide LCD BLU Forecasts, HB-LED Drivers (millions of units) 13
Table 6 – Worldwide LCD BLU Forecasts, HB-LED Drivers (millions of dollars) 13
Table 7 – Worldwide Small LCD BLU (<7”) Forecasts, HB-LED Drivers (millions of units) 14
Table 8 – Worldwide Small LCD BLU (<7”) Forecasts, HB-LED Drivers (millions of dollars) 15
Table 9 – Worldwide Medium LCD BLU (7” to 15”) Forecasts, HB-LED Drivers (millions of units) 17
Table 10 – Worldwide Medium LCD BLU (7” to 15”) Forecasts, HB-LED Drivers (millions of dollars) 18
Table 11 – Worldwide Large LCD BLU (>15”) Forecasts, HB-LED Drivers (millions of units) 21
Table 12 – Worldwide Large LCD BLU (>15”) Forecasts, HB-LED Drivers (millions of dollars) 21
Table 13 – Worldwide Automobile, Truck and Bus Forecasts, HB-LED Drivers (millions of units) 23
Table 14 – Worldwide Automobile, Truck and Bus Forecasts, HB-LED Drivers (millions of dollars) 23
Table 15 – Worldwide Automobile Forecasts, HB-LED Drivers (millions of units) 25
Table 16 – Worldwide Automobile Forecasts, HB-LED Drivers (millions of dollars) 25
Table 17 – Worldwide Light Truck Forecasts, HB-LED Drivers (millions of units) 26
Table 18 – Worldwide Light Truck Forecasts, HB-LED Drivers (millions of dollars) 26
Table 19 – Worldwide Commercial Truck & Bus Forecasts, HB-LED Drivers (millions of units) 27
Table 20 – Worldwide Commercial Truck & Bus Forecasts, HB-LED Drivers (millions of dollars) 27
Table 21 – Worldwide Automobile, Truck and Bus Forecasts, HB-LED Drivers, by Application (millions of units) 28
Table 22 – Worldwide Automobile, Truck and Bus Forecasts, HB-LED Drivers, by Application (millions of dollars) 29
Table 23 – Worldwide Signal, Sign & Billboard Forecasts, HB-LED Drivers (millions of units) 32
Table 24 – Worldwide Signal, Sign & Billboard Forecasts, HB-LED Drivers (millions of dollars) 33
Table 25 – Worldwide Illumination Forecasts, HB-LED Drivers (millions of units) 35
Table 26 – Worldwide Illumination Forecasts, HB-LED Drivers (millions of dollars) 36
Table 27 – Worldwide Projection Display Forecasts, HB-LED Drivers (millions of units) 38
Table 28 – Worldwide Projection Display Forecasts, HB-LED Drivers (millions of dollars) 39
Table 29 – Worldwide Photographic Lighting Forecasts, HB-LED Drivers (millions of units) 41
Table 30 – Worldwide Photographic Lighting Forecasts, HB-LED Drivers (millions of dollars) 41
Table 31 – Worldwide Forecasts, by Power Source, HB-LED Drivers (millions of units) 43
Table 32 – Worldwide Forecasts, by Power Source, HB-LED Drivers (millions of dollars) 43
Table 33 – Worldwide Battery-Powered Forecasts, excluding Automotive, HB-LED Drivers (millions of units) 45
Table 34 – Worldwide Battery-Powered Forecasts, excluding Automotive, HB-LED Drivers (millions of dollars) 46
Table 35 – Worldwide AC Line-Powered Forecasts, HB-LED Drivers (millions of units) 49
Table 36 – Worldwide AC Line-Powered Forecasts, HB-LED Drivers (millions of dollars) 50

Table B-1 – Color Temperature Scale 53
Table B-2 – Color Rendering Index 53


GRAPHS

Graph 1 – Application Segment Unit Market Share 7
Graph 2 – Application Segment Dollar Market Share 8
Graph 3 – Small LCD BLU Unit Sales (millions) 15
Graph 4 – Small BLU Dollar Sales (millions) 16
Graph 5 – Medium BLU Unit Sales (millions) 18
Graph 6 – Medium BLU Dollar Sales (millions) 19
Graph 7 – Large BLU Unit Sales (millions) 21
Graph 8 – Large BLU Dollar Sales (millions) 22
Graph 9 – Automotive Unit Sales (millions) 23
Graph 10 – Automotive Dollar Sales (millions) 24
Graph 11 – Top 5 Automotive Application Sub-segments (percentage of unit sales) 29
Graph 12 – Top 5 Automotive Applications Sub-segments (percentage of dollar sales) 30
Graph 13 – Signal, Sign & Billboard Units (millions) 32
Graph 14 – Signal, Sign & Billboard Dollars (millions) 33
Graph 15 – Illumination Unit Sales (millions) 35
Graph 16 – Illumination Dollar Sales (millions) 36
Graph 17 – Projection Display Units (millions) 39
Graph 18 – Projection Display Dollars (millions) 40
Graph 19 – Photographic Lighting Units (millions) 41
Graph 20 – Photographic Lighting Dollars (millions) 42
Graph 21 – Power Source Unit Market Share 44
Graph 22 – Power Source Dollar Market Share 44
Graph 23 – Top 5 Battery-Powered Sub-segments (percentage of unit sales) 47
Graph 24 – Top 5 Battery-Powered Sub-segments (percentage of dollar sales) 47
Graph 25 – Top 4 AC-Powered Sub-segments (percentage of unit sales) 50
Graph 26 – Top 4 AC-Powered Sub-segments (percentage of dollar sales) 51