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Intellinews Bosnia and Herzegovina Country Report - May 2013

  • June 2013
  • -
  • Emerging Markets Direct Media Holdings
  • -
  • 18 pages

EU Enlargement Commissioner Stefan Fuele expressed his disappointment with the lack of any progress on Bosnia’s EU agenda. He warned the time has come for the alarm to ring for Bosnia because the political elite’s continuous lack of shared vision on the country’s direction is threatening to leave it in regional and international isolation.

On a more positive note, the President of Bosnia’s Muslim-Croat Federation, Zivko Budimir, who was released from custody late on May 24, is due to return to his duties and sign a decree on the recently adopted privilege pensions law without which Bosnia cannot access its IMF funding.
On the economic front, consumer prices in the country eased to 0.4% y/y in April from 0.6% a month earlier due to falling transport, clothing and footwear and health prices.

The industrial output expanded 10.3% y/y in April, quickening from a 7.6% y/y rise the month before, supported by still strong manufacturing and utilities output.

Bosnia’s jobless rate stood at 46.1% at end-Q1, above its end-2012 level (44.5%), according to the country’s labour and employment agency.
The foreign trade gap narrowed 14% y/y to EUR 1bn in January-April 2013, due to a strong exports increase and a mild imports decline.
Bosnia lured EUR 37mn worth of FDI in the first quarter of the year compared with a negative inflow of BAM 5mn a year earlier, the country’s Directorate for Economic Planning (DEP) reported.

Bosnia’s non-performing loans increased to 13.8% of total loans in the first quarter of 2013 from 12.1% a year earlier, central bank data showed.
Bosnia’s commercial bank assets rose 3.2% y/y to a total of EUR 11.4bn at end-April, easing from a 3.9% annual growth the month before. Domestic loans, which represent the majority of bank assets, increased 3.6% y/y to EUR 8.2bn at end-April, the same as the previous month. So far in 2013, Bosnia’s loan growth has been largely driven by corporate lending (mainly long-term loans in local currency). Commercial bank deposits increased 4.7% y/y to EUR 6.9bn at end-April, slowing from the 5.6% y/y rise the month before.

The gross foreign reserves managed by Bosnia’s central bank rose 7.5% y/y to EUR 3.3bn at end-April, quickening from a 3.5% increase the month before.

Table Of Contents

Intellinews Bosnia and Herzegovina Country Report - May 2013
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

MACROECONOMIC OVERVIEW
Bosnia's GDP growth to be x.x% in 2013, x.x% in 2014 - Economic Planning Directorate.
Bosnia to get next EUR xx mn IMF loan tranche by end-June 2013.

REAL SECTOR
1. GDP, Inflation
Bosnia's CPI inflation slows to x.x% y/y in April 2013.
2. Industry and Trade
Bosnia's industrial output growth strengthens to xx.x% y/y in April 2013.
3. Labour Market
Bosnia's jobless rate flattens at xx.x% at end-March 2013 - employment agency.
4. Tourism
Foreign tourist arrivals to Bosnia climb xx% y/y to 71,675 in Q1 2013.

FISCAL SECTOR, MONETARY POLICY
Bosnia's indirect tax revenue to rise x.x% in 2013, x.x% in 2014 - tax authority.
Bosnia's FX reserves increase x.x% y/y to EUR x.x bn at end-April 2013.
Bosnia's M1 growth eases to x.x% y/y in April 2013

FINANCIAL INTERMEDIATION
Bosnia's credit growth to stagnate at x% in 2013 - Economic Directorate.
Share of non-performing loans in Bosnia rises to xx.x% in Q1 2013.
Bosnia's bank assets growth slows to x.x% y/y at end-April 2013.
Bosnia's bank deposits rise x.x% y/y to EUR 7bn at end-April 2013.

EXTERNAL SECTOR
Bosnia could attract up to EUR 1.83bn of FDI in 2013-2016 - Directorate for Economic Planning
Bosnia attracts EUR 37mn of FDI in Q1 - Economic Planning Directorate.
Bosnia's Jan-Apr foreign trade gap shrinks xx% to EUR 1bn.

STRUCTURAL REFORMS, CORPORATE PLANS
EBRD mulls EUR 35mn loan to Bosnia's Elektroprivreda for hydro power plants project.
China mulls EUR 350mn investment in various projects in Bosnia.
Bosnia cancels hydropower partnership deal with Germany's RWE Innogy.
Russia's Gazprom Neft cancels two-year deal with Bosnia's Naftni Terminali FbiH.
Bosnia's BH Telecom pays EUR 0.88/share dividend for 2012.
Bosnia's Q1 gross electricity production climbs xx% y/y to 5,163GWh.

POLITICS
EU's Fuele says it is time the alarm rings for Bosnia.
Bosnia's Federation President Zivko Budimir released from custody.



TABLES
Table 1 - Bosnia's industrial output
Table 2 - Number of uneployed in Bosnia
Table 3- Bosnia's foreign trade

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