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Intellinews - Bulgaria Country Report -May 2013

  • June 2013
  • -
  • Emerging Markets Direct Media Holdings
  • -
  • 21 pages

The new government line-up of PM designate Plamen Oresharski won a weak but expected parliamentary vote on May 29.

Bulgaria's economy expanded by x.x% y/y in real terms in the first quarter of 2013.

In April, annual CPI inflation decelerated, while PPI dropped y/y, marking a first annual decline since December 2009. Retail sales rose y/y in April, while industrial production registered negative annual growth in this month. In addition, the country’s overall business climate indicator fell both y/y and m/m in May.

Bulgaria's unemployment rate, measured in terms of registrations with the state labour agency, fell to xx.x% in May 2013 from xx.x% the month before.

Bulgaria's general government budget posted a BGN xxx mn (EUR xxx mn) surplus in April 2013, as a result of which the ytd budget gap contracted to BGN 286mn.

Bulgaria's current account deficit narrowed xx% y/y to EUR xxx mn in Q1 2013 on the back of strong exports.

Table Of Contents

Intellinews - Bulgaria Country Report -May 2013
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

MACROECONOMIC OVERVIEW
EC publishes 2013 country-specific recommendations for Bulgaria
New Bulgarian government announces its priorities
Bulgaria's Q1 household income climbs xx.x% y/y, spending up xx.x% y/y
Bulgaria's benchmark interest rate falls to x.xx% in May 2013

REAL SECTOR
1. GDP
Bulgaria's GDP growth confirmed at x.x% y/y in Q1
2. Inflation
Bulgaria's CPI inflation eases to x% y/y in April 2013
Bulgaria's PPI down x.x% y/y in April 2013
3. Industry and Trade
Business climate in Bulgaria worsens in May 2013
Bulgaria's industrial production decline slows to x.x% y/y in April 2013
Retail sales in Bulgaria up x.x% y/y in April 2013
4. Labour Market
Bulgaria's unemployment rate falls to xx.x% in May 2013
Bulgaria's labour minister expects unemployment surge in September
Bulgaria's unemployment rate falls to xx.x% in April - Eurostat
Bulgaria's unemployment rate rises to xx.x% in Q1 2013 - labour force survey
Bulgaria's labour productivity up x.x% y/y in Q1 2013
5. Tourism
Bulgaria's foreign tourist arrivals up x.x% y/y in April 2013

FISCAL SECTOR
Bulgaria's general budget gap shrinks to EUR 146mn in Jan-Apr 2013
Bulgaria's new finance minister warns of budget risks on both revenue and expenditure side
Bulgaria sells EUR xx.x mn in 10.5-year bonds, yields down
Bulgaria sells EUR 20mn in seven-year bonds, yields down
Bulgaria's fiscal reserve up xx% m/m to EUR 2.7bn in April 2013
Bulgaria's public debt up xx.x% y/y to EUR 6.89bn at end-April

FINANCIAL INTERMEDIATION
Bulgaria's bank assets growth slows to x% y/y at end-April 2013
Net profit of Bulgarian banks up x% in Jan-Apr 2013
Raiffeisen sees Bulgaria's 2013-2017 average lending growth at x.x%, below SEE average

EXTERNAL SECTOR
Bulgaria's current account gap narrows xx% y/y in Q1 2013
Bulgaria's gross external debt rises to xx.x% of GDP at end-March
Bulgaria's FX reserves down x.x% m/m in May 2013

POLITICS
Bulgaria's parliament approves Socialist-led new government



TABLES
Table 1 Bulgaria GDP growth, y/y
Table 2 Bulgaria consolidated government budget, BGN mn
Table 3 Bulgaria government fiscal reserve, BGN mn
Table 4 Bulgaria banks income statement data
Table 5 Bulgaria Balance of Payments, EUR mn



FIGURES
Figure 1 Bulgaria long-term convergence rate
Figure 2 Bulgaria GDP
Figure 3 Bulgaria CPI, PPI
Figure 4 Bulgaria business climate
Figure 5 Bulgaria industrial output
Figure 6 Bulgaria retail sales
Figure 7 Bulgaria registered unemployment
Figure 8 Bulgaria government budget
Figure 9 Bulgaria bank loans
Figure 10 Bulgaria CA, FDI
Figure 11 Bulgaria external liquidity
Figure 12 Bulgaria foreign reserves


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