China's Steel Industry Research Report 2007-2008

China's Steel Industry Research Report 2007-2008

In 2007, China's crude steel production was 487 million tons, up 15.63 percent year on year. The global crude steel production was 1.316 billion tons, up 8.2%. In terms of the rapid growth of Chinese steel production, at the end of 2007, the proportion of China's steel output of the global output from 34.66 per cent in 2006 to 37.04 per cent in 2007.

In the first two months of 2008, output of crude steel was 70.45 million tons, up 6.4% year on year. The growth rate declined sharply year on year for two reasons: one was the limitation of production capacity expansion, another was lack of raw material.

In 2007, the export of steel was 62.65 million tons, an increase 45.55 per cent year-on-year, 16.87 million tons of steel imports, down 8.98 per cent year-on-year. The proportion of exports has declined from 15.47% in April 2007 to 9.6 per cent. The expectation of proportion of exports will be around 10% in 2008.

At the first two months of 2008, export volume of steel has declined sharply, steel exported 7.25 million tons, 17.24% cumulative reduction. Steel imported 2.68 million tons, 0.74 percent less than the corresponding period.

In 2007, steel industry had a significant achievement, the total income of large and medium-sized iron and steel enterprises was 1.99107 trillion yuan(RMB), an increase of 32.81 per cent year-on-year, total profit was 144.74 billion yuan(RMB), up 49.54% year-on-year, sales profit ratio was 7.3%.

The rising prices of iron ore, coke, coal and other raw materials are the main factors to push up steel prices in 2008. Demands: the increment of global iron and steel is mainly from China, and domestic demand will remain strong. In addition, in terms of the planning of the State Development and Reform Commission, until 2010, there will be shutdown nearly 100 million tons of steel of the backward production capacity, which would have a tremendous impact on the future supply.

1 Supply: an obvious slowdown in the growth rate
2 Consumption
2.1 Analysis of Import and export
2.2 Domestic demands will be slow down
3 Prices
4 Profitability Analysis
5 Potential elements affect China's steel market
5.1 Increasing cost
5.2 Demand remains strong
5.2.1 Export
5.2.2 Domestic demand
5.3 Exchange rate – the appreciation of RMB
5.4 Policy factors

Charts
comparison the output of crude steel between China and global in 2002-2007
contrast the increment of crude steel between China and global in 2002-2007
the Chinese monthly output of crude steel and growth in 2007- February 2008
the investment of fixed assets between 1999 and 2007
the monthly output of crude steel and growth in China and global in 2001- January 2008
the proportion of the exports of total output steel between 2004 and 2007
the net export volumes and growth in 2007- February 2008
the average price of steel of import and export in 2001- January 2008
comparison the apparent consumption of crude steel and output growth
the real estate investment of fixed assets in 2006- February 2008
the prices of wire and deformed steel bar
the price of Hot-rolled plate, cold rolled plate and mid-thick plate
International steel prices in regional index
the average price of iron powder in domestic and import market
the price of coke in domestic market
comparison the profits, price and rising coat /pt
the growth of Chinese mineral production
the import of iron ore volume between 2001 and 2007
the stock of steel sheet
the stock of steel bar