The Forecast and Analysis of China Retail Industry of 2008

The Forecast and Analysis of China Retail Industry of 2008

The absolute retail sales of China consumer goods was over 1 trillion yuan in 2007; the contribution of consumption to GDP growth have surpassed the investment contributes to GDP growth for the first time in seven years. In 2007, the GDP growth was 11.4 per cent, consumption growth ratio was 4.4 Per cent, higher than investment growth ratio 0.1 per cent; this is a significant point that China's economic growth has transformed from investment into consumption. In 2006, China's per capita GDP was over 2,000 U.S. dollars.

In 2007, China's total retail sales of consumer goods was 8.921 trillion yuan, an increase of 16.8%, in December was 901.5 billion yuan, an increase of 20.2%. In terms of the structure of the market, there was a 17.2%year-on-year rising in urban and a 15.8% year-on-year rising in rural, the gap of retail sales between urban and rural has narrowed. In terms of the section that wholesale and retail sention has increased 16.7 per cent and the accommodation and catering section has increased 19.4 per cent in 2007. The cumulative monthly growth ratio has taken a speed of wholesales and retail, such as, petroleum products, automobile, construction and decoration materials, furniture, home appliances and audio-video equipment, clothing, footwear, textile, cosmetics, and sports entertainment supplies were up 20 per cent.

According to China Commerce association’s data that the total profits of the leading 497 retail companies has increased sharply, particular, supermarkets, department stores. The wholesale and retail business prospect index and trader confidence index also has risen continually, in March of 2008, the two figure reached 153.2 and 147.2 respectively, in a high level.

China has become the world's third largest luxury consumption country. In 2006, China's consumption of luxury goods have reached 8.6 billion U.S. dollars, an increase of more than 30 per cent, is the highest rising market in the world, it is about 12% of the global sales of the top brands. In the next 10 years, China's sales of luxury goods market is expected to reach 26 billion U.S. dollars, accounting for 29% of the global market.

The CPI has hit a high record in January and February of 2008, which were
7.1 percent and 8.7 percent growth year-on-year; meanwhile, the growth ratio of the total retail sales of social consumer goods was 21.2 per cent and 20.2 per cent growth year-on-year, and wholesale and retail trade was 21.2% and 20% increase year-on-year. In 2008, in terms of the growth of per capital income, consumption demand policy and Beijing Olympics, which will stimulate domestic consumption, therefore, consumption will be the main contributor for the economic growth in 2008.

Since the beginning of 2008, mergers have become a highlight for the China retail industry to promote the industrial competitions. In terms of the lower level of concentration of retail industry, mergers and acquisitions will continue to integrate, and in such mergers, the leading companies will play an important role.

1. The state of China's retail industry
1.1 Analysis of retail industry performance of 2007
1.2 The development of retail industry of 2007
1.2.1 The growth of the total retail sales in 2007
1.2.2 The growth of per capital income in 2007
1.2.3 The increasing of consumption prices
1.2.4 The contribution of consumption to the GDP
1.2.5 The decreasing of export will affect the export-firms
1.3 Analysis of retail industry in the first quarter of 2008

2. Analysis of China's luxury market
2.1 Analysis of luxury market
2.2 Catalogue of luxury goods
2.3 The prospects of luxury market

3. The impact of retail industry
3.1 Inflation
3.2 Consumption become a key element of economic growth
3.3 The upgrade of consumption drives the sales of high-end products
3.4 The impact of policy

4. The change of Retail business model
4.1 The model of chain
4.2 The change of business structure

5. Mergers
5.1 The mergers of leading retail companies
5.2 The foreign investment

6. The forecast and analysis of retail industry of 2008
6.1 Government policies
6.2. The development of listed companies
6.3. The expansion and finance
6.4 Profits benefit from moderate inflation
6.5 The upgrade of consumption
6.6 Non-food consumption will be increased rapidly
6.7 The increasing awareness of well-know brand
6.8 The change of profit model
6.9 The growth of retail industry


Charts
Figure: The total retail sales of social consumer goods and growth ratio of 2001-Feb 2008
Figure: The monthly total retail sales of social consumer goods and growth ratio of 2007
Figure: The total profit growth of larger-scale retail companies of 2007
Figure: China GDP of per capital
Figure: The growth of urban disposable income per capita, spendable income growth of rural and GDP growth between 2000 and 2007
Figure: The consumer confident index between Jan of 2007 and Mar of 2008
Figure: The world well-know brands’ expansion plans of China market in 2008
Figure: The increasing of jewels market
Figure: The sales growth of furniture market
Figure: The component of domestic luxury market
Figure: The increasing traders of luxury goods
Figure: The moderation inflation has pushed the growth of sales since 2007
Figure: The decrease of export and increase of import since 2008
Figure: The sales of jewels in Jan and Feb of 2008
Figure: Figure of main consumers
Figure: Analysis of chain
Figure: The data of sales and profits of Baishen group of 2006
Figure: The mergers of retail companies since Dec of 2007
Table: The new department stores in Shanghai between 2006 and 2007
Figure: Comparison The domestic and overseas market
Table: Policies of retail industry since 2008
Figure: The growth of non-food goods consumption
Figure: The growth sales ratio of department store and forecast
Figure: The scales and profits of China leading retail groups.