The Future of Solar Power: Key technologies and drivers for a solar future

The Future of Solar Power: Key technologies and drivers for a solar future

This report analyses the future of solar power generation- It looks at the key technologies, and examines the efficiency and economics of the different solar power generation systems. It looks specifically at a range off issues affecting the costs, efficiency and take up of solar photovoltaic power generation and solar thermal power generation as well as a brief consideration of other and emerging solar generation technologies. Drawing on over 30 separate sources, the report analyses the most current thinking on solar power generation. It gives the most comprehensive view on the drivers and resistors of solar power capacity growth and its impact on the power generation landscape.

Table of Contents
The Future of Solar Power
Executive summary 10
Introduction 10
The solar resource 10
Solar photovoltaic power generation 11
Solar thermal power generation 12
Other approaches to solar power generation 12
The economics of solar power generation 13
The prospects for solar power 13
Chapter 1 An introduction to solar power 16
Introduction 16
The report 18
Chapter 2 The solar resource 22
Introduction 22
Solar potential 24
Solar resource sites 25
Chapter 3 Solar photovoltaic power generation 28
Introduction 28
Solar cell basics 29
Energy levels and absorption 31
Types of solar cell 34
Different cell structures 36
Flat plate and concentrating cells 38
Solar photovoltaic systems 39
Building integrated photovoltaics 40
Energy storage 41
Photovoltaic environmental considerations 41
Solar photovoltaic production 44
Key manufacturers 48
Solar cell country markets 49
Utility photovoltaic systems 52
Costs 53
Chapter 4 Solar thermal power generation 58
Introduction 58
Solar thermal basics 59
Parabolic troughs 60
The SEGS parabolic trough plants 62
Modern parabolic trough power stations 63
Parabolic trough with direct steam generation 65
Hybrid parabolic trough - fossil fuel power plants 65
Solar towers 67
Current solar tower developments 68
Other solar tower projects 70
Advanced solar tower developments 70
Solar dishes 71
Solar dish projects 74
Solar dish developments 75
Solar thermal environmental considerations 75
Solar thermal costs 77
Chapter 5 Other approaches to solar power generation 82
Introduction 82
Solar ponds 82
Solar pond projects 83
Solar chimneys 84
Photoelectrolysis 86
Chapter 6 The economics of solar power generation 88
Introduction 88
Solar thermal power plant economics 88
Solar photovoltaic power plant economics 92
Comparative costs of utility plants 95
Chapter 7 The prospects for solar power 102
Introduction 102
Comparative costs of solar generation 102
Solar thermal markets 108
Solar photovoltaic markets 112
Conclusions 113
List of Figures
Figure 3.1: Semiconductor band gaps at 300ºK (27ºC) 32
Figure 3.2: Market share among thin film technologies, 2007 36
Figure 3.3: Energy payback for solar cells (years) 43
Figure 3.4: Annual solar cell production (MW) and cumulative global capacity (MW), 1999-2007 44
Figure 3.5: Solar cell production (MW) by country, 2006 46
Figure 3.6: Thin film solar cell production (MW) by country, 2006 47
Figure 3.7: Top ten solar cell manufacturers, 2006 48
Figure 3.8: Largest solar cell markets by country (Annual installation), 2006 51
Figure 3.9: Annual US photovoltaic module production costs ($/W), 1970-2006 54
Figure 4.10: Typical breakdown of investment in parabolic trough power plant (%) 62
Figure 4.11: Breakdown of costs for Solar Tres solar tower plant (%) 69
Figure 4.12: Breakdown of costs for a hypothetical 50MW solar dish power plant (%) 73
Figure 4.13: Land area for solar thermal power plants (Capacity v ha/MW) 76
Figure 4.14: Capital costs for solar thermal power plants (€/kW) 78
Figure 6.15: EU cost estimates for 50MW reference solar thermal power plants (€/kW), (€/MWh) 90
Figure 6.16: Solar thermal installed cost projections ($/kW), 2006-2010 91
Figure 6.17: Benchmark (2005) and projected solar photovoltaic installed cost ($/kW), 2005-2020 93
Figure 6.18: Solar plant levelized electricity costs ($/MWh), 2007 98
Figure 7.19: Instant installed costs for power generation technologies in California ($/kW), 2007 104
Figure 7.20: Levelized cost of electricity from new generation plants in California ($/MWh) 105
Figure 7.21: US DoE Solar Program cost targets ($/MWh), 2011 and 2020 107
Figure 7.22: Projections for peak demand growth in southwestern US states (MW), 2006 to 2015 110
List of Tables
Table 3.1: Semiconductor band gaps at 300ºK (27ºC) 32
Table 3.2: Market share among thin film technologies, 2007 35
Table 3.3: Energy payback for solar cells (years) 43
Table 3.4: Annual solar cell production (MW) and cumulative global capacity (MW), 1999-2007 44
Table 3.5: Solar cell production (MW) by country, 2006 45
Table 3.6: Thin film solar cell production (MW) by country, 2006 46
Table 3.7: Top ten solar cell manufacturers, 2006 48
Table 3.8: Largest solar cell markets by country (Annual installation (MW)), 2006 50
Table 3.9: Annual US photovoltaic module production costs ($/W), 1970-2006 53
Table 4.10: Typical breakdown of investment in parabolic trough power plant (%) 61
Table 4.11: Breakdown of costs for Solar Tres solar tower plant (%) 69
Table 4.12: Breakdown of costs for a hypothetical 50MW solar dish power plant (%) 73
Table 4.13: Land area for solar thermal power plants (Capacity v ha/MW) 76
Table 4.14: Capital costs for solar thermal power plants (€/kW) 77
Table 6.15: EU cost estimates for 50MW reference solar thermal power plants (€/kW), (€/MWh) 89
Table 6.16: Solar thermal installed cost projections ($/kW), 2006-2010 91
Table 6.17: Benchmark (2005) and projected solar photovoltaic installed cost ($/kW), 2005-2020 93
Table 6.18: Benchmark (2005) and projected solar photovoltaic electricity costs ($/MWh), 2005- 2020 94
Table 6.19: Solar plant installation costs ($/kW), 2007 96
Table 6.20: Solar plant operation and maintenance costs ($/kW), 2007 97
Table 6.21: Solar plant levelized electricity costs ($/MWh), 2007 98
Table 7.22: Instant installed costs for power generation technologies in California ($/kW), 2007 103
Table 7.23: Levelized cost of electricity from new generation plants in California ($/MWh) 105
Table 7.24: US DoE Solar Program cost targets ($/MWh), 2011 and 2020 107
Table 7.25: Projections for peak demand growth in southwestern US states (MW), 2006 to 2015 109