Johnson & Johnson: PharmaVitae Profile

Johnson & Johnson: PharmaVitae Profile

Introduction

This analysis examines the historical and forecast performance for J&J in the ethical pharmaceutical sector. The profile encompasses global company strategy, portfolio and pipeline analysis and assessment of financial performance, with 1-6 year sales forecasts for key drugs. An interactive forecasting and analysis tool provides continually updated quantitative and qualitative information.

Reasons to Purchase

*Benchmark Johnson & Johnson's performance against key rivals in the ethical pharmaceutical sector

*Analyze how J&J will implement life cycle management strategies across its portfolio as a means to combat patent expiries and generic competition

*Assess J&J's diverse healthcare offering and how this will act to maintain operating growth despite flat forecast revenue expansion for Rx pharma

CHAPTER 1 ABOUT THIS PROFILE 2
Executive summary 2
Quarterly news update 2
Company introduction 2
Company sales 2
Company financials 2
Key products and competitors 3
Appendix 3
Data sourcing 3
Sales data 3
Analyst consensus 3
CHAPTER 2 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 4
Key findings 4
Prescription pharmaceutical sales performance, 2001-13 5
Financial performance, 2001-13 6
J&J: PharmaVitae forecasts at a glance 7
Strategic insight 8
Managing the boom & bust of 'blockbuster' drugs 8
US small molecule drug sales increase generic exposure 8
Lifecycle management will minimize loss from key products 9
Despite challenges, J&J's outlook appears robust 10
Performance to 2013 will be clear by 2010 10
Diversified business balances risk 11
Wide range of strategic options to seek growth 12
SWOT analysis 15
Strengths 15
Weaknesses 16
Opportunities 17
Threats 18
CHAPTER 3 QUARTERLY NEWS UPDATE 23
Product developments 23
Deals and alliances 24
Product deals 24
Technology deals 25
M&A activity 25
Company announcements 25
Future product milestones 26
CHAPTER 4 COMPANY INTRODUCTION 28
Key findings 28
Company overview 29
Company history 29
Company structure 30
M&A history 31
M&A strategy 33
CHAPTER 5 COMPANY SALES 34
Key findings 34
Prescription pharmaceutical sales and growth rate analysis, 2001-13 35
Product analysis 37
Product analysis, 2001-07 37
Product analysis, 2007-13 40
Therapy area analysis 44
Therapy area analysis, 2001-07 45
Therapy area analysis, 2007-13 47
Therapy area focus, 2001-13 50
Geographic analysis 52
Geographic analysis, 2001-07 53
Geographic analysis, 2007-13 55
Geographic focus, 2001-13 57
Launch/core/expiry analysis 59
Explanation of launch/core/expiry analysis 59
Launch analysis, 2007-13 60
Core analysis, 2007-13 61
Expiry analysis, 2007-13 62
Launch/core/expiry configuration, 2007-13 64
Molecule type analysis 66
Molecule type analysis, 2001-07 67
Molecule type analysis, 2007-13 68
Externalization analysis 71
Externalization analysis, 2001-07 72
Externalization analysis, 2007-13 73
CHAPTER 6 COMPANY FINANCIALS 77
Key findings 77
Reconciliation between PharmaVitae-formatted prescription pharma sales and company-reported total sales, 2001-07 78
Financial statements, 2001-07 79
Profit and loss account, 2001-07 79
Balance sheet, 2001-07 82
Operating costs and profit analysis 84
Operating costs and profit analysis, 2001-07 86
Operating cost ratio and profit margin analysis, 2001-07 87
Operating cost ratio and profit margin analysis, 2007-13 89
Operating costs and profit analysis, 2007-13 92
Return on capital employed analysis 94
Capital employed analysis, 2001-07 95
Return on capital employed (RoCE) analysis, 2001-07 97
Market capitalization analysis 101
Market capitalization analysis, 2001-07 101
Total shareholder returns (TSR) analysis, 2001-07 104
CHAPTER 7 KEY PRODUCTS AND COMPETITORS 106
Key findings 106
Overview 107
Product profiles 108
Risperdal franchise 108
Overview 108
Sales forecast 109
Success driven by first to market and favorable side effect profile 109
US generics hit Risperdal sales from H2 2008 111
Additional products aimed at retaining patients within JNJ's portfolio 111
Invega franchise 113
Overview 113
Sales forecast 114
Switching before launch of generic Risperdal is critical 114
Paliperidone palmitate will build upon Risperdal Consta's success 116
Remicade 117
Overview 117
Sales forecast 118
J&J markets Remicade in the US only 118
Humira has slowed growth of Remicade sales 118
New launches will maintain the growth of J&J's I&I franchise 119
Procrit/ Eprex 121
Overview 121
Sales forecast 122
Decline as market share lost to Aranesp from 2002 122
Safety concerns have hit the wider ESA market 122
Further competition limited to ex-US markets for now 123
Topamax 124
Overview 124
Sales forecast 125
Generics set to erode key US market across 2008-09 125
Sales growth has been supported by use in further indications 125
Rivaroxaban 127
Overview 127
Sales forecast 128
US launch forecast in 2009 128
Set to revolutionize anticoagulant management 128
Attractive product profile ensures market success 129
Velcade 130
Overview 130
Sales forecast 131
Growth driven by label expansion 131
Takeda prevented J&J from acquiring Millennium 132
Prezista 133
Overview 133
Sales forecast 134
Growth strengthened by earlier use 134
Close fit with additional HIV products 135
CHAPTER 8 APPENDIX 136
R&D pipeline 136
References 137
Abbreviations 137
Historical growth rate analysis 138
List of Tables
Table 1: J&J - PharmaVitae forecasts at a glance 7
Table 2: Key events set to shape J&J's outlook to 2013 11
Table 3: J&J key product developments, Q1 2008 23
Table 4: J&J product deals and alliances, Q1 2008 24
Table 5: J&J technology deals and alliances, Q1 2008 25
Table 6: J&J M&A activity, Q1 2008 25
Table 7: J&J company announcements,Q1 2008 25
Table 8: J&J future product milestones 2008-2010 26
Table 9: J&J product portfolio overview, sales ($m), 2001-07 37
Table 10: J&J product portfolio overview, sales ($m), 2007-13 40
Table 11: J&J therapy portfolio overview, sales ($m), 2001-07 45
Table 12: J&J therapy portfolio overview, sales ($m), 2007-13 47
Table 13: J&J portfolio overview by geographic region, sales ($m), 2001-07 53
Table 14: J&J portfolio overview by geographic region, sales ($m), 2007-13 55
Table 15: J&J launch portfolio overview ($m), 2007-13 60
Table 16: J&J core portfolio overview ($m), 2007-13 61
Table 17: J&J expiry portfolio overview ($m), 2007-13 62
Table 18: J&J portfolio overview by molecule type ($m), 2001-07 67
Table 19: J&J product portfolio overview by molecule type ($m), 2007-13 68
Table 20: J&J product portfolio overview by source ($m), 2001-07 72
Table 21: J&J product portfolio overview by source ($m), 2007-13 73
Table 22: Total J&J sales by business unit ($m), 2001-07 78
Table 23: J&J profit and loss account ($m), 2001-07 79
Table 24: J&J balance sheet ($m), 2001-07 82
Table 25: J&J operating revenue/cost analysis ($m), 2001-07 86
Table 26: J&J operating cost ratio analysis (% of total revenue), 2001-07 87
Table 27: J&J operating profit analysis by segment (% of segment sales), 2001-07 88
Table 28: J&J operating cost ratio analysis (% of total revenue), 2007-13 89
Table 29: J&J operating revenue/cost analysis ($m), 2007-13 92
Table 30: J&J capital employed ($m), 2001-07 95
Table 31: J&J EBIT return on capital employed ($m), 2001-07 97
Table 32: J&J EBIT pre-tax return/Capital employed driver analysis ($m), 2001-07 98
Table 33: J&J market capitalization ($ billion), 2001-07 101
Table 34: J&J total shareholder returns (annual %), 2001-07 104
Table 35: Key products overview, 2007-13 107
Table 36: Risperdal: overview 108
Table 37: Risperdal franchise: sales forecast ($m), 2007-13 109
Table 38: Invega: overview 113
Table 39: Invega franchise: sales forecast ($m), 2007-13 114
Table 40: Remicade: overview 117
Table 41: Remicade: sales forecast ($m), 2007-13 118
Table 42: Procrit: overview 121
Table 43: Procrit: sales forecast ($m), 2007-13 122
Table 44: Topamax: overview 124
Table 45: Topamax: sales forecast ($m), 2007-13 125
Table 46: Rivaroxaban: overview 127
Table 47: Rivaroxaban: sales forecast ($m), 2007-13 128
Table 48: Velcade: overview 130
Table 49: Velcade: sales forecast ($m), 2007-13 131
Table 50: Prezista: overview 133
Table 51: Prezista: sales forecast ($m), 2007-13 134
Table 52: J&J's late-stage R&D pipeline 136
Table 53: J&J contributions to year-on-year growth (%), 2001-07 138
List of Figures
Figure 1: J&J prescription pharmaceutical performance, sales ($m) and growth rate (%), 2001-13 5
Figure 2: J&J financial performance ($m), 2001-13 6
Figure 3: Lifecycle management strategies boost key J&J franchises, 2001-13 ($m) 9
Figure 4: J&J's strategic options for growth 13
Figure 5: SWOT analysis of J&J 15
Figure 6: J&J company structure 30
Figure 7: Recent & major M&A/ divestment activity, J&J 31
Figure 8: Johnson & Johnson prescription pharmaceutical performance, sales ($m) and growth rate (%), 2001-13 35
Figure 9: J&J key sales growth driver & resistors ($m), 2001-07 38
Figure 10: J&J key sales growth drivers & resistors ($m), 2007-13 41
Figure 11: J&J prescription pharmaceutical sales by therapy area ($m), 2001-13 44
Figure 12: J&J prescription pharma sales by therapy area, (% of total), 2001-13 50
Figure 13: J&J prescription pharmaceutical sales by geographic region ($m), 2001-13 52
Figure 14: J&J drivers and resistors by geographic region, sales ($m), 2001-07 53
Figure 15: J&J drivers and resistors by geographic region, sales ($m), 2007-13 55
Figure 16: J&J prescription pharmaceutical sales by geographic region (% of total), 2001-13 57
Figure 17: J&J launch/core/expiry configuration ($m), 2007-13 64
Figure 18: J&J prescription pharmaceutical sales by molecule type ($m), 2001-13 66
Figure 19: J&J growth drivers & resistors by molecule type ($m), 2007-13 69
Figure 20: J&J prescription pharmaceutical sales by source ($m), 2001-13 71
Figure 21: J&J growth drivers & resistors by source ($m), 2001-07 72
Figure 22: J&J growth drivers & resistors by source ($m), 2007-13 75
Figure 23: J&J operating revenue/cost analysis ($m), 2001-13 84
Figure 24: J&J operating cost ratio analysis (% of total revenue), 2001-13 91
Figure 25: J&J return on capital employed, EBIT margin and capital turnover, 2001-07 94
Figure 26: Return on capital employed formula 99
Figure 27: J&J market capitalization ($ billion), 2001-07 102
Figure 28: J&J total shareholder returns (annual %), 2001-07 105
Figure 29: US atypical antipsychotic market share by USD, 2003-07 110
Figure 30: J&J's antipsychotic franchise, global sales ($m), 2003-13 115