CHAPTER 1 ABOUT THIS PROFILE 2
Executive summary 2
Quarterly news update 2
Company introduction 2
Company sales 2
Company financials 2
Key products and competitors 3
Appendix 3
Data sourcing 3
Sales data 3
Analyst consensus 3
CHAPTER 2 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 4
Key findings 4
Prescription pharmaceutical sales performance, 2001-13 5
Financial performance, 2001-13 6
Bayer AG: PharmaVitae forecasts at a glance 8
Strategic insight 9
Evolution towards a greater Rx pharma focus 9
1) 2001-04: Rx pharma performance collapses due to Baycol withdrawal and Ciprobay sales decline 10
Blockbuster Baycol is withdrawn from the market 10
Blockbuster Ciprobay suffers genericization 10
2) 2004-07: Corporate restructuring 11
2004: Divestment of Lanxess AG 11
2006-07: Acquisition of Schering AG 11
2007: Divestment of MaterialScience subsidiaries 12
3) 2007-13: Bayer portfolio drives forecast sales growth and cost savings are implemented 12
Cost cutting initiatives to increase operating profit 12
Bayer's Rx portfolio drives growth 13
A new era for Bayer Schering Pharma 14
SWOT analysis 16
Strengths 16
Weaknesses 17
Opportunities 19
Threats 21
CHAPTER 3 QUARTERLY NEWS UPDATE 25
Product developments 25
Deals and alliances 26
Product deals 26
Technology deals 26
M&A activity 27
Company announcements 28
Future product milestones 29
CHAPTER 4 COMPANY INTRODUCTION 30
Key findings 30
Company overview 31
Company history 31
Current corporate structure 32
Bayer HealthCare 33
Bayer MaterialScience 33
Bayer CropScience 33
M&A history 34
Acquisition of Roche Consumer Health AG (RCH) 34
Lanxess AG Spin-off 35
Divestment of US Plasma Products 35
Acquisition of Schering AG 36
Recent M&A promotes Bayer's healthcare focus 36
Divestment of Diagnostics Division 36
Divestment of HC Starck and Wolff Walsrode 37
Acquisition of Possis Medical and Sagmel Inc 37
M&A strategy 37
CHAPTER 5 COMPANY SALES ANALYSIS 39
Key findings 39
Prescription pharmaceutical sales and growth rate analysis, 2001-13 40
Product analysis 43
Product analysis, 2001-07 43
Product analysis, 2007-13 46
Therapy area analysis 50
Therapy area analysis, 2001-07 51
Therapy area analysis, 2007-13 54
Therapy area focus, 2001-13 57
Geographic analysis 59
Geographic analysis, 2001-07 60
Geographic analysis, 2007-13 62
Geographic focus, 2001-13 64
Launch/core/expiry analysis 66
Explanation of launch/core/expiry analysis 66
Launch analysis, 2007-13 67
Core analysis, 2007-13 69
Expiry analysis, 2007-13 71
Launch/core/expiry configuration, 2007-13 74
Molecule type analysis 76
Molecule type analysis, 2001-07 77
Molecule type analysis, 2007-13 79
Externalization analysis 82
Externalization analysis, 2001-07 83
Externalization analysis, 2007-13 85
CHAPTER 6 COMPANY FINANCIALS 88
Key findings 88
Reconciliation between PharmaVitae-formatted prescription pharma revenue and Bayer AG-reported total revenue, 2001-07 89
Financial statements, 2001-07 91
Profit and loss account, 2001-07 91
Balance sheet, 2001-07 94
Operating costs and profit analysis 96
Operating costs and profit analysis, 2001-07 97
Operating cost ratio and profit margin analysis, 2001-07 100
Operating cost ratio and profit margin analysis, 2007-13 102
Operating cost ratio and profit margin analysis, 2001-13 104
Operating costs and profit analysis, 2007-13 106
Return on capital employed analysis 108
Capital employed analysis, 2001-07 109
Return on capital employed (RoCE) analysis, 2001-07 111
Market capitalization analysis 115
Market capitalization analysis, 2001-07 115
Total shareholder returns (TSR) analysis, 2001-07 117
CHAPTER 7 KEY PRODUCTS AND COMPETITORS 119
Key findings 119
Overview 120
Hematology 121
Kogenate 121
Overview 121
Sales forecast 122
PEGylated formulation set to drive sales from 2011 122
Delivery device is key contributor to growth of Kogenate franchise 123
Growth of hemophilia market will continue to drive Kogenate sales growth 123
Key competitors 123
Patent challenge 124
Xarelto 125
Overview 125
Sales forecast 126
A replacement for Warfarin? 126
Pradaxa expected to take first-to-market advantage 127
Positive Phase III trial data buoys sales hopes 127
Urology and gender-specific health 128
Mirena 128
Overview 128
Sales forecast 129
An alternative to sterilization 129
Launch in the Japanese market 129
Key competitors 130
Levitra 132
Overview 132
Sales forecast 133
Key competitors 133
PDE-5 safety concerns 134
Levitra licensing agreements 134
Yasmin 135
Overview 135
Sales forecast 136
Yasmin: a historical growth driver 136
Yasmin patent invalidated following challenge from Barr Pharmaceuticals 136
The impact of generics 137
Key competitors 138
Yaz 140
Overview 140
Sales forecast 141
The Impact of Yasmin's invalidated patent protection 141
New market launches 142
Key competitors 142
The switch from Yasmin to Yaz 143
Oncology 144
Nexavar 144
Overview 144
Sales forecast 145
Nexavar encounters strong competition in the RCC market 145
HCC market to offer better sales potential 146
Further indication broadening will boost sales growth 146
Leukine 148
Overview 148
Sales forecast 149
Ongoing development to expand Leukine's range of indications 149
Leukine sales limited to the competitive US market 149
Safety concerns 150
Central nervous system 151
Betaferon 151
Overview 151
Sales forecast 152
Betaferon: a success story despite initial challenges 152
Novartis agreement 153
Key competitors 153
The Tysabri withdrawal 154
Infectious disease 156
Avelox 156
Overview 156
Sales forecast 157
Antibiotics market encounters growing patient resistance 157
Key competitors 158
Avelox in a good position despite increasing genericization 158
Avelox patent challenge: generic moxifloxacin not expected by 2013 159
Ciprobay 160
Overview 160
Sales forecast 161
Rapid genericization in forecast period 161
A key historical growth driver 161
The problem of resistance 162
Life cycle management 162
Cardiovascular 163
Adalat 163
Overview 163
Sales forecast 164
Extended release formulation rejuvenates brand 164
The impact of genericization 165
Rise of the ARB class 165
Endocrinology and other metabolic disorders 167
Glucobay 167
Overview 167
Sales forecast 168
The poor performance of the AGI class 168
Key competitors 169
CHAPTER 8 APPENDIX 171
R&D pipeline 171
New molecular entity pipeline 171
Indication broadening pipeline 172
References 173
Abbreviations 173
Exchange rates 174
List of Tables
Table 1: Bayer AG- PharmaVitae forecasts at a glance 8
Table 2: Bayer Schering Pharma AG key product developments, Q1 2008 25
Table 3: Bayer Schering Pharma AG product deals and alliances, Q1 2008 26
Table 4: Bayer Schering Pharma AG technology deals and alliances, Q1 2008 26
Table 5: Bayer HealthCare M&A activity, Q1 2008 27
Table 6: Bayer AG company announcements, Q1 2008 28
Table 7: Bayer Schering Pharma future product milestones, Q2 2008-Q1 2010 29
Table 8: Bayer Schering Pharma product portfolio overview, sales ($m), 2001-07 43
Table 9: Bayer Schering Pharma product portfolio overview, global sales ($m), 2007-13 46
Table 10: Bayer Schering Pharma therapy portfolio overview, sales ($m), 2001-07 51
Table 11: Bayer Schering Pharma therapy portfolio overview, sales ($m), 2007-13 54
Table 12: Bayer Schering Pharma portfolio overview by geographic region, sales ($m), 2001-07 60
Table 13: Bayer Schering Pharma portfolio overview by geographic region, sales ($m), 2007-13 62
Table 14: Bayer Schering Pharma launch portfolio overview ($m), 2007-13 67
Table 15: Bayer Schering Pharma core portfolio overview ($m), 2007-13 69
Table 16: Bayer Schering Pharma expiry portfolio overview ($m), 2007-13 71
Table 17: Bayer Schering Pharma portfolio overview by molecule type ($m), 2001-07 77
Table 18: Bayer Schering Pharma product portfolio overview by molecule type ($m), 2007-13 79
Table 19: Bayer Schering Pharma product portfolio overview by source ($m), 2001-07 83
Table 20: Bayer Schering Pharma AG product portfolio overview by source ($m), 2007-13 85
Table 21: Total Bayer AG revenue by business unit ($m), 2001-07 89
Table 22: Bayer AG profit and loss account ($m), 2001-07 91
Table 23: Bayer AG balance sheet ($m), 2001-07 94
Table 24: Bayer AG operating revenue/cost analysis ($m), 2001-07 97
Table 25: Bayer AG operating cost ratio analysis (% of total revenue), 2001-07 100
Table 26: Bayer AG operating cost ratio analysis (% of total revenue), 2007-13 102
Table 27: Bayer AG operating revenue/cost analysis ($m), 2007-13 106
Table 28: Bayer AG capital employed ($m), 2001-07 109
Table 29: Bayer AG EBIT return on capital employed ($m), 2001-07 111
Table 30: Bayer AG EBIT pre-tax return/Capital employed driver analysis ($m), 2001-07 112
Table 31: Bayer AG market capitalization ($ billion), 2001-07 115
Table 32: Bayer AG total shareholder returns, 2001-07 (annual %) 117
Table 33: Bayer Schering Pharma: Key products overview 120
Table 34: Kogenate: overview 121
Table 35: Kogenate: sales forecast ($m), 2007-13 122
Table 36: Xarelto: overview 125
Table 37: Xarelto: sales forecast ($m), 2007-13 126
Table 38: Mirena: overview 128
Table 39: Mirena: sales forecast ($m), 2007-13 129
Table 40: Key players in the oral contraceptives market, 2001-13 130
Table 41: Levitra: overview 132
Table 42: Levitra: sales forecast ($m), 2007-13 133
Table 43: Yasmin: overview 135
Table 44: Yasmin: sales forecast ($m), 2007-13 136
Table 45: Key players in the oral contraceptives market, 2007-13 138
Table 46: Yaz: overview 140
Table 47: Yaz: sales forecast ($m), 2007-13 141
Table 48: Nexavar: overview 144
Table 49: Nexavar: sales forecast ($m), 2007-13 145
Table 50: Leukine: overview 148
Table 51: Leukine: sales forecast ($m), 2007-13 149
Table 52: Betaferon: overview 151
Table 53: Betaferon: sales forecast ($m), 2007-13 152
Table 54: Avelox: overview 156
Table 55: Avelox: sales forecast ($m), 2007-13 157
Table 56: Key players in the antibiotics market, 2007 158
Table 57: Ciprobay: overview 160
Table 58: Ciprobay: sales forecast ($m), 2007-13 161
Table 59: Adalat: overview 163
Table 60: Adalat: sales forecast ($m), 2007-13 164
Table 61: Glucobay: overview 167
Table 62: Glucobay: sales forecast ($m), 2007-13 168
Table 63: Bayer Schering Pharma AG's NME pipeline (Phase I-registration) 171
Table 64: Bayer Schering Pharma AG's indication broadening pipeline (Phase I-registration) 172
Table 65: Exchange rates, 2007 174
List of Figures
Figure 1: Bayer AG prescription pharmaceutical performance, sales ($m) and growth rate (%), 2001-13 5
Figure 2: Bayer AG financial performance ($m), 2001-13 7
Figure 3: Bayer AG corporate development, 2001-13 9
Figure 4: Bayer Schering Pharma prescription pharmaceutical sales by source ($m), 2007-13 13
Figure 5: Bayer Schering Pharma prescription pharmaceutical sales by therapy area ($m), 2001-13 14
Figure 6: Bayer Schering Pharma SWOT analysis 16
Figure 7: Current corporate structure 32
Figure 8: M&A/divestment history Bayer AG 34
Figure 9: Bayer Schering Pharma prescription pharmaceutical performance, sales ($m) and growth rate (%), 2001-13 40
Figure 10: Bayer Schering Pharma key sales growth drivers and resistors ($m), 2001-07 44
Figure 11: Bayer Schering Pharma key sales growth drivers and resistors ($m), 2007-13 47
Figure 12: Bayer Schering Pharma prescription pharmaceutical sales by therapy area ($m), 2001-13 50
Figure 13: Bayer Schering Pharma prescription pharma sales by therapy area, (% of total), 2001-13 57
Figure 14: Bayer Schering Pharma prescription pharmaceutical sales by geographic region ($m), 2001-13 59
Figure 15: Bayer Schering Pharma drivers and resistors by geographic region, sales ($m), 2001-07 60
Figure 16: Bayer Schering Pharma drivers and resistors by geographic region, sales ($m), 2007-13 62
Figure 17: Bayer Schering Pharma prescription pharmaceutical sales by geographic region (% of total), 2001-13 64
Figure 18: Bayer Schering Pharma launch/core/expiry configuration ($m), 2007-13 74
Figure 19: Bayer Schering Pharma prescription pharmaceutical sales by molecule type ($m), 2001-13 76
Figure 20: Bayer Schering Pharma growth drivers & resistors by molecule type ($m), 2007-13 80
Figure 21: Bayer Schering Pharma prescription pharmaceutical sales by source ($m), 2001-13 82
Figure 22: Bayer Schering Pharma growth drivers & resistors by source ($m), 2001-07 83
Figure 23: Bayer Schering Pharma growth drivers & resistors by source ($m), 2007-13 86
Figure 24: Bayer AG operating revenue/cost analysis ($m), 2001-13 96
Figure 25: Bayer AG operating cost ratio analysis (% of total revenue), 2001-13 104
Figure 26: Bayer AG return on capital employed, EBIT margin and capital turnover, 2001-07 108
Figure 27: Return on capital employed formula 113
Figure 28: Bayer AG market capitalization ($ billion), 2001-07 116
Figure 29: Bayer AG total shareholder returns (annual %), 2001-07 117
