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Global bus demand to grow 5.4% per year through 2012
Worldwide demand for buses will advance 5.4 percent annually to 437,000 vehicles in 2012 on the strength of significant increases in the price of fuel worldwide. Demand for buses traditionally tends to be cyclical and dependent on region-specific trends, such as demographics, income levels, relative spending levels on mass transit systems, per-capita passenger vehicle density, and others. However, with the dramatic rise in fuel prices experienced in 2007 and 2008, the market has achieved a new footing, as commuters in even vehicle-saturated markets such as the United States increasingly choose mass transit over driving themselves. Buses represent one of the most cost-effective methods for transporting passengers, and with ridership rising as much as 30 percent year-on-year in some bus transit systems, demand will increase as transit authorities, motor coach lines and other bus operators place orders to augment their current fleets.
Other forces that will support bus demand include rising congestion levels in major metropolitan centers worldwide, the establishment of dedicated bus rapid transit systems and “bus ways” in key cities in Latin America and the Asia/ Pacific region, and the general economic expansions taking place in emerging markets that require workers to travel further to reach jobs. Bus travel is becoming more of a necessity for urban travelers worldwide as governments enforce limits on the use of personal vehicles (both cars and motorcycles) to reduce pollution and congestion levels.
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- INTRODUCTION
- I. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
- II. MARKET ENVIRONMENT
- General
- World Economic Overview
- Recent Historical Trends
- Macroeconomic Outlook
- World Demographic Outlook
- Personal Income & Expenditure Trends
- World Light Vehicle Overview
- World Light Vehicle Sales
- Environmental & Regulatory Factors
- Pricing Trends
- III. WORLD OVERVIEW
- Global Bus Demand
- Demand by Region
- Bus Demand Dynamics
- Demand by Product Type
- Transit Buses
- Motor Coaches
- Other Bus Demand
- Production by Region
- Bus Park by Region
- Alternate Fuel Bus Demand
- Busways & Bus Rapid Transit Systems
- Foreign Trade in Buses
- IV. NORTH AMERICA
- General
- Bus Demand by Type
- United States
- Canada
- Mexico
- V. WESTERN EUROPE
- General
- Bus Demand by Type
- France
- Germany
- United Kingdom
- Italy
- Spain
- Belgium
- Sweden
- Other Western Europe
- VI. ASIA/PACIFIC
- General
- Bus Demand by Type
- China
- India
- Japan
- Indonesia
- South Korea
- Australia
- Taiwan
- Other Asia/Pacific
- VII. OTHER REGIONS
- General
- Bus Demand by Type
- Latin America
- Brazil
- Other Latin America
- Eastern Europe
- Russia
- Other Eastern Europe
- Africa/Mideast
- VIII. INDUSTRY STRUCTURE
- General
- Industry Composition & Market Share
- Research & Product Development
- Manufacturing
- Marketing
- Distribution
- Financial Issues & Requirements
- Mergers, Acquisitions & Industry Restructuring
- Cooperative Agreements
- Company Profiles
- Alexander Dennis Limited
- Allison Transmission Incorporated
- Altra SpA, see Fiat
- Anhui Ankai Automobile Company Limited
- Ashok Leyland Limited
- Blue Bird Corporation
- Champion Bus Incorporated, see Thor Industries
- Consorcio G Grupo Dina SA de CV
- Daimler AG
- Dandong Huanghai Automobile Company Limited, see Liaoning Shuguang Automotive Group
- Detroit Diesel Corporation, see Daimler
- ElDorado National California Incorporated, see Thor Industries
- EvoBus GmbH, see Daimler
- Fiat SpA
- GAZ OAO
- General Motors Corporation
- Goshen Coach Incorporated, see Thor Industries
- Haci Omer Sabanci Holding AS
- Hino Motors Limited, see Toyota Motor
- Hyundai Motor Company
- IC Corporation, see Navistar International
- Irizar S Coopertiva, see Mondragon
- IRIZAR-TVS Limited, see Ashok Leyland and Mondragon
- Liaoning Shuguang Automotive Group Company Limited
- Mahindra International, see Navistar International
- MAN AG
- Marcopolo SA
- Millennium Transit Services LLC
- Minsky Avtomobilny Zavod
- Mitsubishi Fuso Truck and Bus Corporation, see Daimler
- Mondragon Corporacion Cooperativa
- Motor Coach Industries Incorporated
- Navistar International Corporation
- NEOPLAN Bus GmbH, see MAN
- New Flyer Industries Incorporated
- Nissan Diesel Motor Company Limited, see Volvo
- North American Bus Industries Incorporated
- Nova Bus Corporation, see Volvo
- Optare Holdings Limited
- PAZ, see GAZ
- Plaxton Holdings Limited, see Alexander Dennis
- Polomex SA de CV, see Daimler and Marcopolo
- Prevost Car Incorporated, see Volvo
- Scania AB
- Solaris Bus & Coach SA
- Superpolo SA, see Marcopolo
- Tata Marcopolo Motors Limited, see Marcopolo and Tata Motors
- Tata Motors Limited
- Temsa Sanayi ve Ticaret AS, see Haci Omer Sabanci
- Thomas Built Buses Incorporated, see Daimler
- Thor Industries Incorporated
- Toyota Motor Corporation
- Van Hool NV
- VDL Groep BV
- Volgren Australia Pty Limited
- Volvo AB
- Wright Group Limited
- Xiamen King Long Motor Company Limited
- Yangzhou Yaxing Motor Coach Company Limited
- ZF Friedrichshafen AG
- Zhengzhou Yutong Bus Company Limited
- Zhongtong Bus Holding Company Limited
- Other Companies Mentioned in Study
- LIST OF TABLES
- SECTION I -- EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
- Summary Table
- SECTION II -- MARKET ENVIRONMENT
- 1 World Gross Domestic Product by Region
- 2 World Population by Region
- 3 World Urban Population by Region
- 4 Per Capita GDP by Region
- 5 World Light Vehicle Production
- 6 World Light Vehicle Sales
- SECTION III -- WORLD OVERVIEW
- 1 World Bus Demand by Region
- 2 World Bus Demand by Type
- 3 Transit Bus Demand by Region
- 4 Motor Coach Demand by Region
- 5 Other Bus Demand by Region
- 6 World Bus Production by Region
- 7 World Bus Park by Region
- 8 World Bus Demand by Fuel Type
- 9 World Bus Balance of Trade
- SECTION IV -- NORTH AMERICA
- 1 North America Bus Supply, Park & Demand
- 2 North America Bus Demand by Type
- 3 United States Bus Supply, Park & Demand
- 4 United States Bus Demand by Type
- 5 Canada Bus Supply, Park & Demand
- 6 Canada Bus Demand by Type
- 7 Mexico Bus Supply, Park & Demand
- 8 Mexico Bus Demand by Type
- SECTION V -- WESTERN EUROPE
- 1 Western Europe Bus Supply, Park & Demand
- 2 Western Europe Bus Demand by Type
- 3 France Bus Supply, Park & Demand
- 4 France Bus Demand by Type
- 5 Germany Bus Supply, Park & Demand
- 6 Germany Bus Demand by Type
- 7 United Kingdom Bus Supply, Park & Demand
- 8 United Kingdom Bus Demand by Type
- 9 Italy Bus Supply, Park & Demand
- 10 Italy Bus Demand by Type
- 11 Spain Supply, Park & Demand
- 12 Spain Bus Demand by Type
- 13 Belgium Bus Supply, Park & Demand
- 14 Belgium Bus Demand by Type
- 15 Sweden Bus Supply, Park & Demand
- 16 Sweden Bus Demand by Type
- 17 Other Western Europe Bus Supply, Park & Demand
- 18 Other Western Europe Bus Demand by Type
- SECTION VI -- ASIA/PACIFIC
- 1 Asia/Pacific Bus Supply, Park & Demand
- 2 Asia/Pacific Bus Demand by Type
- 3 China Bus Supply, Park & Demand
- 4 China Bus Demand by Type
- 5 India Bus Supply, Park & Demand
- 6 India Bus Demand by Type
- 7 Japan Bus Supply, Park & Demand
- 8 Japan Bus Demand by Type
- 9 Indonesia Bus Supply, Park & Demand
- 10 Indonesia Bus Demand by Type
- 11 South Korea Bus Supply, Park & Demand
- 12 South Korea Bus Demand by Type
- 13 Australia Bus Supply, Park & Demand
- 14 Australia Bus Demand by Type
- 15 Taiwan Bus Supply, Park & Demand
- 16 Taiwan Bus Demand by Type
- 17 Other Asia/Pacific Bus Supply, Park & Demand
- 18 Other Asia/Pacific Bus Demand by Type
- SECTION VII -- OTHER REGIONS
- 1 Other Regions Bus Supply, Park & Demand
- 2 Other Regions Bus Demand by Type
- 3 Latin America Supply, Park & Demand
- 4 Latin America Bus Demand by Type
- 5 Brazil Supply, Park & Demand
- 6 Brazil Bus Demand by Type
- 7 Other Latin America Supply, Park & Demand
- 8 Other Latin America Bus Demand by Type
- 9 Eastern Europe Supply, Park & Demand
- 10 Eastern Europe Bus Demand by Type
- 11 Russia Supply, Park & Demand
- 12 Russia Bus Demand by Type
- 13 Other Eastern Europe Supply, Park & Demand
- 14 Other Eastern Europe Bus Demand by Type
- 15 Africa/Mideast Supply, Park & Demand
- 16 Africa/Mideast Bus Demand by Type
- SECTION VIII -- INDUSTRY STRUCTURE
- 1 Sales of Selected Bus Producers, 2007
- 2 Selected Acquisitions & Divestitures
- 3 Selected Cooperative Agreements
- LIST OF CHARTS
- SECTION III -- WORLD OVERVIEW
- 1 World Bus Demand by Region, 2007
- 2 Population Correlation to Bus Demand, 2007
- 3 World Bus Demand by Type, 2007
- SECTION VIII -- INDUSTRY STRUCTURE
- 1 World OEM Bus Market Share by Company, 2007
More Details
China to remain leader in sales and production
Worldwide, China is both the largest market for and producer of buses, as well as the nation most responsible for supporting the forward momentum expected for bus demand. The country has become a regional hub for bus production, although Chinese bus manufacturers currently lack the global brand strength of leading producers in western countries. Nonetheless, the cost advantages of Chinese buses, while shrinking, would appear to point toward an increased emphasis on exports.
The bus market in North America tends to be atypical among developed nations in a number of ways. The United States and Canada, for example, have thriving markets for specially designed school buses, which are not common in Europe or Japan. The US also lacks the dynamic passenger train, tram and subway (metro) systems so common in Europe and Japan, making bus travel the primary mass transit option in most US cities. Furthermore, the large distances between cities and states provides a strong stimulus for sales of motor coaches, which are purpose-designed to move passengers long distances in comfort. For the first time in decades, high fuel prices have caused Americans to reduce their miles traveled, with many opting for bus and rail alternatives.
Despite its negative demographics, Western Europe will also see heightened demand as fuel prices rapidly increase in many countries, and more cities limit or tax car use. Japan, on the other hand, will experience a decline in bus demand due to an aging population and the prevalence of other mass transit options such as light rail.
Study coverage
This new Freedonia industry study, World Buses, is available for $5600. It presents historical demand data (1997, 2002, 2007) plus forecasts (2012 and 2017) for supply and demand, as well as demand by type, in six regions and 21 countries. The study also assesses market environment factors, evaluates market shares and profiles 38 industry players worldwide.
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