Keywords : power grid, high voltage, power generator, power generation
HVDC System Planning, Economic and Technology Issues, Market Drivers and Uncertainties, and Key Industry Players: Global Market Analysis and Forecasts Like much of the electricity grid, high-voltage transmission systems in service today rely on many of the same technologies that existed at their conception over 100 years ago. In the last 20 years, however, transmission technologies have benefited from a new stage of innovation. Toda...
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HVDC System Planning, Economic and Technology Issues, Market Drivers and Uncertainties, and Key Industry Players: Global Market Analysis and Forecasts
Like much of the electricity grid, high-voltage transmission systems in service today rely on many of the same technologies that existed at their conception over 100 years ago. In the last 20 years, however, transmission technologies have benefited from a new stage of innovation. Today over two-thirds of new large-scale transmission systems planned or under construction are high-voltage direct current (HVDC) systems. HVDC systems are an essential component of grid buildouts to meet the growth in demand for electricity. Around the world, HVDC is being relied upon to integrate large amounts of intermittent renewable energy capacity, as well as rapid capacity expansions of bulk power transmission to meet vibrant economic growth in the developing world.
HVDC systems are, by nature, very capital intensive and in many world regions they are driven by government programs. In other regions, planned HVDC systems are at the mercy of capital availability and balkanized regulatory frameworks. These factors, combined with the uncertainties of the global economy, lead Pike Research to the conclusion that there is likely to be a significant gap between the planned level of investment in HVDC systems and the investment level that will actually happen. Pike Research’s analysis indicates that while the planned cumulative investment in HVDC amounts to nearly $220 billion through 2020, there is an 80% probability that the actual range of investment during that period will only be between $110 and $120 billion.
This Pike Research report provides a comprehensive analysis of the global market opportunity for HVDC transmission systems. The study examines key market drivers and barriers by world region, policy and regulatory issues, economics of transmission system construction and operations, HVDC technology issues, profiles of key industry players, and a comprehensive database of HVDC systems planned and under construction. Market forecasts for HVDC systems and spending are provided through 2020, with segmentation by world region, including a probabilistic analysis of the likelihood of various investment levels during the forecast period.
Key Questions Addressed:
-What are the primary HVDC component and cable technologies and how are they being deployed?
-What are the key drivers influencing this market?
-What are the primary technology issues facing participants and how are they evolving?
-What is a realistic forecast of systems that are likely to actually be constructed and how much of an investment does this group represent?
Who needs this report?
-Power generation companies
-Transmission system operators
-Transmission equipment vendors
-Software developers
-Government agencies
-Investor community
Global Electric Power Energy Industry
Table of Contents
1. Executive Summary
1.1 High-Voltage Transmission Systems
1.1.1 High-Voltage Direct Current
1.2 HVDC Market Segments and Drivers
1.3 HVDC Market Challenges
1.4 HVDC Systems in Construction or Planned
1.5 HVDC System Market Forecasts
2. Market Issues
2.1 Electricity Transmission Markets
2.2 High-Voltage Transmission
2.2.1 Alternating Current and Direct Current Defined
2.2.2 HVDC
2.2.3 HVAC and HVDC Compared
2.2.3.1 Operational Differences
2.2.3.2 Economic Considerations
2.2.4 HVDC and UHVDC
2.2.5 HVDC Benefits Summary
2.3 Global Demand Drivers
2.3.1 Global HVDC Market Drivers
2.3.1.1 Electricity Demand
2.3.1.2 Energy Poverty
2.3.1.3 Technology Advancements
2.3.2 Regional HVDC Market Drivers
2.3.2.1 North America
2.3.2.2 Europe
2.3.2.3 China and India
2.3.2.4 Rest of World
2.4 HVDC Market Challenges
2.4.1 Land Use
2.4.2 Capital
2.4.3 Regulatory Policies
2.4.3.1 United States
2.4.3.2 Europe
2.4.3.3 China
2.4.3.4 India
2.5 HVDC and the Smart Grid
2.5.1 Efficient Infrastructure
2.5.2 Intelligent Hardware and Controls
3. Technology Issues
3.1 HVDC Technology Overview
3.1.1 Primary Components of HVDC Systems
3.1.2 Converter Technology
3.1.2.1 Current Sourced Converter
3.1.2.2 Voltage-Sourced Converter
3.1.3 Cables and Conductors
3.1.3.1 Mass Impregnated Submarine and Underground Cables
3.1.3.2 Extruded Submarine Cables
3.1.3.3 Overhead Conductors
3.2 HVDC System Configurations and Operating Modes
3.3 Submarine Interconnections
3.3.1 Undersea National Grid Interconnections
3.3.2 Connecting Wind Farms and Offshore Power Generation
3.3.3 Power Supply to Offshore Facilities
3.4 Technology Development
3.4.1 Converter Technology
3.4.2 HVDC Breakers
3.4.3 Superconductors
3.5 Installed System Cost Metrics
3.5.1 Hypothetical HVDC Line
3.5.1.1 Cost Parameters
3.5.1.2 Financing Assumptions
3.5.2 Comparison with HVAC Alternatives
4. HVDC System Applications
4.1 Connecting HVAC Grids
4.2 Multi-Terminal Operations
4.3 National and International Grid Buildouts
4.3.1 North America
4.3.1.1 United States
4.3.1.2 Canada
4.3.2 Europe
4.3.3 China and India
4.3.3.1 China
4.3.3.2 India
4.3.4 Rest of World
4.4 Planned or Under Construction HVDC Lines: 2012-2020
4.4.1 North America
4.4.2 Europe
4.4.3 China and India
4.4.4 Rest of World
5. Key Industry Players
5.1 HVDC Electronic Components Suppliers
5.1.1 ABB
5.1.2 Alstom
5.1.3 AMSC
5.1.4 Schweitzer Engineering Laboratories
5.1.5 Siemens AG
5.2 Large Power Grid Operators
5.2.1 China Southern Power Grid (CSP)
5.2.2 Power Grid Corp. of India Ltd. (POWERGRID)
5.2.3 State Grid Corp. of China (SGCC)
5.2.4 Statnett
5.2.5 TenneT
5.2.6 Western Electricity Coordinating Council
5.3 Cable and Equipment Manufacturers
5.3.1 Borealis
5.3.2 General Cable Corp. (NSW)
5.3.3 LS Cable & System
5.3.4 Nexans
5.3.5 nkt cables
5.3.6 Prysmian
6. Market Forecasts
6.1 HVDC Systems Market Forecasts
6.2 Global HVDC Systems Market
6.2.1 Global HVDC Market by Region
6.2.2 Global HVDC Converter Station Market
6.2.2.1 Global Annual HVDC Converter Forecast
6.2.2.2 Global Cumulative HVDC Converter Stations Forecast
6.2.2.3 Global Cumulative HVDC Converter Station Market Forecast by Region
6.2.2.4 Global Cumulative HVDC Converter Station Forecast by Technology
6.3 HVDC Systems Market Forecast Reflecting Global Uncertainties
6.3.1 Global Uncertainties
6.3.1.1 Hypothetical Events – Political
6.3.1.2 Hypothetical Events – Economic
6.3.1.3 Hypothetical Events – Sociological
6.3.1.4 Hypothetical Events – Technological
6.3.2 HVDC Systems Global Market Probabilistic Forecast
6.3.2.1 HVDC Systems Regional Market Probabilistic Forecast
7. Company Directory
8. Acronym and Abbreviation List
9. Table of Contents
10. Table of Charts and Figures
11. Scope of Study, Sources and Methodology, Notes
List of Charts and Figures
Cumulative Spending, Planned HVDC Systems, World Markets: 2012-2020
Cumulative HVDC Systems Spending Probability Distribution, World Markets: 2012-2020
Economic Tradeoffs Quantified, HVAC and HVDC
Electricity Demand, World Markets: 2010-2020
Electricity Demand, North America and Europe vs. China and India: 2010-2020
Total Costs, Hypothetical HVDC System
Annual Spending, Planned HVDC Systems, World Markets: 2012-2020
Annual Spending, Planned HVDC Systems by Region, World Markets: 2012-2020
Cumulative Spending, Planned HVDC Systems by Region, World Markets: 2012-2020
Share of HVDC Converter Station Component Costs
HVDC Converter Station Costs by Capacity
Annual Spending, Planned HVDC Converter Stations, World Markets: 2012-2020
Cumulative Spending, Planned HVDC Converter Stations, World Markets: 2012-2020
Cumulative Spending, Planned HVDC Converter Stations by Region, World Markets: 2012-2020
Cumulative Spending, Planned HVDC Converter Stations by Technology, World Markets: 2012-2020
Cumulative HVDC Systems Spending by Probability, World Markets: 2012-2020
Cumulative HVDC Systems Spending by Probability, North America: 2012-2020
Cumulative HVDC Systems Spending Probability Distribution, North America: 2012-2020
Cumulative HVDC Systems Spending by Probability, Europe: 2012-2020
Cumulative HVDC Systems Spending Probability Distribution, Europe: 2012-2020
Cumulative HVDC Systems Spending Probability, China and India: 2012-2020
Cumulative HVDC Systems Spending Probability Distribution, China and India: 2012-2020
Cumulative HVDC Systems Spending by Probability, Rest of World: 2012-2020
Cumulative HVDC Systems Spending Probability Distribution, Rest of World: 2012-2020
HVDC Systems Planned for Commissioning by Region, World Markets: 2012-2020
Capacity Improvements, HVDC Classic Converter Technology: 1970-2010
HVAC and HVDC System Layouts, Midwest United States
Maximum Real Power Transfer, Subsea Cables
HVDC Overall Losses
Right-of-Way Benefits of HVDC Transmission
Economic Tradeoffs, HVAC and HVDC
Distribution of People Living Without Electricity
U.S. Electricity Reliability Councils
Regional Transmission Operators
EU 2050 Goals, Renewable Generation
Projected Share of Global Indicators, China
Simplified Synchrophasor Data System Schematic
Generic Converter Station Layout
Evolution of Converter Technology Capacity: 1970-2011
Chuxiong Converter Station
Shoreham HVDC Converter Station
Mass Impregnated Submarine Cables
HVDC XLPE Submarine and Underground Cables
HVDC System Configurations
2030 Offshore Grid Vision of European Wind Energy Association
Wind Turbine Cable Installation Schematic, Horns
Beatrice Offshore Wind Farm and Oil Platform
VSC Technology Advances
Multi-Terminal Operation with and without Circuit Breakers
Superconductor Wire Components
Superconductor Cables
TresAmigas Hub
PowerPipelines System, United States
Quebec-New England HVDC Interconnection
ANOVA Concept – U.S. National HVDC Backbone
Proposed Canadian Interconnections
EU Transmission Requirements: 2050
Friends of the Supergrid Concept
Medgrid Proposal
DESERTEC
The Mediterranean Ultra-Grid
Transmission Line Paths and Construction Plans in China
Indian HVDC Planned Corridors
Political, Economic, Sociological, and Technological Uncertainties
List of Tables
HVDC Systems Planned for Commissioning by Region, World Markets: 2012-2020
Economic Tradeoffs Quantified, HVAC and HVDC
Electricity Demand by Region, World Markets: 2010-2035
Current Converter Technology Capacity Limits by Vendor
Hypothetical HVDC Line Cost Elements
Project Financing Assumptions
Summary, Pro Forma Financial Statement
Costs per Unit Capacity and Energy: HVDC and HVAC Systems, 3,000 MW
Total Costs, Hypothetical HVDC System by Component
HVDC Lines, Planned or Under Construction, North America: 2012-2020
HVDC Lines, Planned or Under Construction, Europe: 2012-2020
HVDC Lines, Planned or Under Construction, China and India: 2012-2020
HVDC Lines, Planned or Under Construction, Rest of World: 2012-2020
Annual Spending, Planned HVDC Systems, World Markets: 2012-2020
Cumulative Spending, Planned HVDC Systems, World Markets: 2012-2020
Annual Spending, Planned HVDC Systems by Region, World Markets: 2012-2020
Cumulative Spending, Planned HVDC Systems by Region, World Markets: 2012-2020
Annual Spending, Planned HVDC Systems by Detailed Region, World Markets: 2012-2020
Share of HVDC Converter Station Component Costs
HVDC Converter Station Costs by Capacity
Annual Spending, Planned HVDC Converters, World Markets: 2012-2020
Cumulative Spending, Planned HVDC Converters, World Markets: 2012-2020
Cumulative Spending, Planned HVDC Converters by Region, World Markets: 2012-2020
Cumulative Spending, Planned HVDC Converters by Technology, World Markets: 2012-2020
Cumulative HVDC Systems by Probability, World Markets: 2012-2020
Cumulative HVDC Systems Distribution, World Markets: 2010-2020
Cumulative HVDC Systems by Probability, North America: 2012-2020
Cumulative HVDC Systems Distribution, North America: 2010-2020
Cumulative HVDC Systems by Probability, Europe: 2012-2020
Cumulative HVDC Systems Distribution, Europe: 2010-2020
Cumulative HVDC Systems by Probability, China and India: 2012-2020
Cumulative HVDC Systems Distribution, China and India: 2010-2020
Cumulative HVDC Systems by Probability, Rest of World: 2012-2020
Cumulative HVDC Systems Distribution, Rest of World: 2010-2020
