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  5. > South West Africa Agribusiness Report Q3 2016

South West Africa Agribusiness Report Q3 2016

  • July 2016
  • -
  • Business Monitor International
  • -
  • 72 pages

Includes 3 FREE quarterly updates

BMI View: Rising incomes and populations will see South West Africa enjoy long-term growth in cornproduction. While there will be significant bumps along the way, with the 2015/16 forecast especially poorfor Botswana and Namibia, the region will see output growth outpace consumption growth through to theend of our forecast period in 2019/20. Meanwhile, in the sugar sector we see production in the key marketof Angola beginning to slow over the forecast period as cheap imports from Brazil and China compete withlocal production.

Key BMI Forecasts

- Angolan corn production from 2015/16 to 2019/20: 5.1% to 1.97mn tonnes. After a bumper crop in2015/16, we expected production levels to slow through the duration of our forecast period.

- Botswana corn production from 2015/16 to 2019/20: 350.0% to 18,000 tonnes. Insufficient rainsduring the cropping season caused widespread crop failure and caused a large-scale slump in output in2015/16. We are forecasting production to jump in 2016/17 with an increase in the crop coming from alow base, and we expect this positive sentiment to continue through to the end of our forecast period.

- Angola sugar production growth from 2015/16 to 2019/20: 170.4% to 135,200 tonnes. Over the longterm, we believe Angolan sugar output has strong potential following years of flat production growththrough to 2015/16. The increased presence of the private sector has improved production methods andencouraged the use of fertilisers.

Table Of Contents

South West Africa Agribusiness Report Q3 2016
BMI Industry View 7
SWOT 9
Agribusiness 9
Industry Forecast 11
Grains Outlook 11
Latest Updates 11
Table: Angola, Botswana And Namibia - Corn Production and Consumption Outlook 12
Table: Risk To Outlook 12
Structural Trends 13
Table: Angola, Botswana And Namibia Corn Production and Consumption ('000 tonnes) 14
Sugar Outlook 15
Latest Updates 15
Table: Angola - Sugar Production and Consumption Outlook 15
Table: Risks To Outlook 15
Structural Trends 16
Table: Angola Sugar Production and Consumption, 2014-2020 17
Commodity Price Analysis 18
Global - Global Commodities Strategy 18
Table: Select Commodities - Performance And Bmi Forecasts 18
Upstream Analysis 20
Africa GM Outlook 20
Africa Machinery Outlook 27
Table: How Africa Compares With Other Regions 27
Africa Fertiliser Outlook 33
Downstream Analysis 40
Food 40
Latest Updates 40
Structural Trends 41
Table: Food Sales (Botswana 2013-2020) 41
Food 43
Latest Updates 43
Structural Trends 44
Table: Food Sales (Namibia 2013-2020) 44
Food 46
Latest Updates 46
Structural Trends 47
Table: Food Sales (Angola 2013-2020) 48
Regional Overview 50
Middle East and Africa Regional Overview 50
Demographic Forecast 56
Demographic Outlook 56
Table: Population Headline Indicators (Angola 1990-2025) 57
Table: Key Population Ratios (Angola 1990-2025) 57
Table: Urban/Rural Population and Life Expectancy (Angola 1990-2025) 58
Table: Population By Age Group (Angola 1990-2025) 58
Table: Population By Age Group % (Angola 1990-2025) 59
Demographic Outlook 61
Table: Population Headline Indicators (Botswana 1990-2025) 62
Table: Key Population Ratios (Botswana 1990-2025) 62
Table: Urban/Rural Population and Life Expectancy (Botswana 1990-2025) 63
Table: Population By Age Group (Botswana 1990-2025) 63
Table: Population By Age Group % (Botswana 1990-2025) 64
Demographic Outlook 66
Table: Population Headline Indicators (Namibia 1990-2025) 67
Table: Key Population Ratios (Namibia 1990-2025) 67
Table: Urban/Rural Population and Life Expectancy (Namibia 1990-2025) 68
Table: Population By Age Group (Namibia 1990-2025) 68
Table: Population By Age Group % (Namibia 1990-2025) 69
Methodology 71
Industry Forecast Methodology 71
Sector-Specific Methodology 72

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