Forecast Insight: Antihypertensives Key patent expiries prevent market growth

Forecast Insight: Antihypertensives Key patent expiries prevent market growth

Introduction

Datamonitor expects the antihypertensives market to reach $37 billion, across the seven major markets, by 2017. The growth will be driven by the uptake of Novartis's Tekturna, as well as increased use of ARBs, and their combinations. However, the expiries of some key patents, particularly Pfizer's Norvasc and Merck's Cozaar, will restrain market growth.

Scope

*Description of the competitive landscape in antihypertensives across seven major markets with market definition and overview.

*Definition of the unmet needs in the antihypertensives market.

*Event-driven updated sales forecasts for 2008-17 across the seven major markets: US, France, Germany, Italy, Spain, UK and Japan.

*Analysis of major events and brand dynamics affecting the hypertension market.

Highlights

The growth rate of the antihypertensive market is declining. The market is mature and does not present an attractive opportunity for R&D expenditure; consequently Big Pharma are shying away from the pursuit of novel mechanisms of action in favour of developing more efficacious combination therapies.

Cozaar's and Diovan's patent expiries in the US have the potential to alter the structure of the antihypertensive market dramatically. Threats of generic substitution and money-saving healthcare strategies which have plagued other markets, are now approaching the successful ARB class, and will have an impact on the whole antihypertensive market.

Novartis is set to strengthen its position in the antihypertensives arena; Tekturna is expected to achieve moderate sales and together with Exforge form a potential for market expansion. This however will be set back by the premature expiry of Pfizer's Norvasc patent.

Reasons to Purchase

*Quantify the future size of the antihypertensives market and identify opportunities for new products.

*Learn how recent changes related to product expiries will shape the antihypertensives market.

*Understand the barriers to uptake for novel antihypertensive agents, and the need for paradigm shift in clinical trial design.

ABOUT DATAMONITOR HEALTHCARE 2
About the cardiovascular pharmaceutical analysis team 2
CHAPTER 1 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 3
Strategic scoping and focus 3
Datamonitor insight into the disease market 3
Related reports 5
CHAPTER 2 MARKET DEFINITION AND OVERVIEW 7
Definition of drug classes 7
Current seven major market assessment 7
The antihypertensives market segmented by class 7
The antihypertensives market segmented by country 10
Antihypertensive market landscape 13
Historical influences on the market 14
Strategic scope 16
Consideration of market unmet needs 16
Conflicting evidence from clinical trials and guideline alterations 16
Paradigm shift in antihypertensive R&D 17
Defining the unmet need in the antihypertensives market 17
Beyond blood pressure reduction 17
Improved diagnosis 18
Improved blood pressure management 19
Increased uptake of fixed-dose combination therapies 20
Targeting global cardiovascular risk and organ damage 21
Patient and primary care physician education 22
Rest of World snapshot 24
Current market assessment 24
Future seven major market assessment 28
Overview 28
Market drivers and market restraints 31
Key factors driving growth of the antihypertensives market 31
Factors restraining growth of the antihypertensives market 32
Forecast summary 33
Key events summary 36
CHAPTER 3 BRAND DYNAMICS 37
Overview of the competitive landscape 37
Angiotensin receptor blockers 38
Class level events 42
Blopress/Atacand (candesartan) 45
Diovan/Co-Diovan (valsartan/valsartan + HCTZ) 48
Exforge (valsartan+ amlodipine) 51
Cozaar (losartan)/Hyzaar (losartan + HTCZ) 52
Micardis (telmisartan) 55
Benicar (olmesartan) 58
Angiotensin converting enzyme inhibitors 61
Lotrel (amlodipine + benazepril) 64
Beta blockers 65
Betaloc (metoprolol) 69
Kredex (carvedilol) 71
Calcium channel blockers 72
Norvasc (amlodipine) 74
Diuretics 76
Renin inhibitors 77
Tekturna/Rasilez (aliskiren) 78
BIBLIOGRAPHY 82
Journal papers 82
Websites 85
Datamonitor reports 85
APPENDIX A: MARKET ASSUMPTIONS 86
New product launches 86
Patent expiries 87
Data definitions, limitations and assumptions 88
Standard units 88
Japanese market data 88
Derivation of sales forecasts and pricing trends 88
Forecast methodology 89
APPENDIX B 90
Contributing experts 90
Report methodology 90
About Datamonitor 90
About Datamonitor Healthcare 91
About the Disease analysis team 92
Disclaimer 93
List of Tables
Table 1: Antihypertensive sales in the seven major markets by class, 2006-07 8
Table 2: Sales of antihypertensives across the seven major markets by country, 2007 10
Table 3: Sales of the leading branded drugs for hypertension in the seven major markets, 2007 14
Table 4: Leading branded drug sales for hypertension in the seven major markets and Rest of World, 2007 27
Table 5: Forecast sales growth of hypertension drugs by class in the seven major markets, 2007-17 31
Table 6: Forecast sales of antihypertensives in the seven major markets, 2007-2017 33
Table 7: Leading angiotensin receptor blockers sales ($m) for hypertension in the seven major markets, 2007-2017 41
Table 8: Leading angiotensin receptor blockers single pill combinations sales ($m) for hypertension in the seven major markets, 2007-2017 42
Table 9: Blopress/Atacand: key facts 45
Table 10: Sales forecast ($m) for Blopress for hypertension in the seven major markets, 2007-2017 46
Table 11: Sales forecast ($m) for Atacand for hypertension in the seven major markets, 2007-2017 46
Table 12: Diovan: key facts 48
Table 13: Sales forecast ($m) for Diovan for hypertension in the seven major markets, 2007-2017 49
Table 14: Sales forecast ($m) for Co-Diovan for hypertension in the seven major markets, 2007-17 50
Table 15: Key facts: Cozaar 52
Table 16: Sales forecast ($m) for Cozaar for hypertension in the seven major markets, 2007-2017 53
Table 17: Sales forecast ($m) for Hyzaar for hypertension in the seven major markets, 2007-2017 54
Table 18: Micardis: key facts 55
Table 19: Sales forecast ($m) for Micardis for hypertension in the seven major markets, 2007-2017 57
Table 20: Benicar: key facts 58
Table 21: Sales forecast ($m) for Benicar for hypertension in the seven major markets, 2007-2017 60
Table 22: Leading angiotensin converting enzyme inhibitors sales ($m) for hypertension in the 7MMseven major markets, 2007-2017 63
Table 23: Leading beta-blockers sales ($m) for hypertension in the seven major markets, 2007-2017 68
Table 24: Betaloc/Toprol-XL: key facts 69
Table 25: Sales forecast ($m) for Betaloc for hypertension in the seven major markets, 2007-2017 69
Table 26: Kredex/Coreg: key facts 71
Table 27: Leading calcium-channel blockers sales ($m) for hypertension in the seven major markets, 2007-2017 74
Table 28: Norvasc: key facts 74
Table 29: Datamonitor's launch dates for hypertension products in the 5EU and US, 2008-2017 86
Table 30: Patent expiry dates used in forecasting antihypertensive sales in the seven major markets, 2007-2017 87
List of Figures
Figure 1: Antihypertensive market share by class in the seven major markets, 2004-07 9
Figure 2: Growth in the antihypertensives market by country, 2004-07 11
Figure 3: Antihypertensive sales in the US, 5EU and Japan, 2004-07 12
Figure 4: Overall antihypertensive sales by country, 2006-07 13
Figure 5: Key events impacting the hypertension market, 2004-08 16
Figure 6: Sales of antihypertensives by market type, 2007 25
Figure 7: Global hypertension sales growth by market segment, 2004-07 26
Figure 8: Comparison of leading branded drug growth for hypertension in the seven major markets and Rest of World*, 2006-07 27
Figure 9: Forecast sales of antihypertensive drugs by class and value in the seven major markets ($ bn), 2007-2017 29
Figure 10: Forecast sales of antihypertensive drugs by class and volume in the seven major markets, 2007-2017 30
Figure 11: Market share of antihypertensives by class, 2007 and 2017 35
Figure 12: Impact of key events on the antihypertensive market, 2007-2017 36
Figure 13: Market share of leading brands, 2007 and 2017 38
Figure 14: Forecast sales of angiotensin receptor blockers, 2007-2017 40
Figure 15: Hypertension-specific sales ($m) forecast for Blopress in the seven major markets, 2007-2017 47
Figure 16: Hypertension-specific sales ($m) forecast for Diovan in the seven major markets, 2007-2017 51
Figure 17: Hypertension-specific sales ($m) forecast for Cozaar in the seven major markets, 2007-17 55
Figure 18: Hypertension-specific sales ($m) forecast for Micardis in the seven major markets, 2007-2017 58
Figure 19: Hypertension-specific sales ($m) forecast for Benicar in the seven major markets, 2007-2017 61
Figure 20: Forecast sales of angiotensin converting enzyme inhibitors, 2007-17 64
Figure 21: Hypertension-specific sales ($m) forecast for Lotrel in the seven major markets, 2007-2017 65
Figure 22: Forecast sales of beta blockers, 2007-17 67
Figure 23: Hypertension-specific sales ($m) forecast for BETALOC in the seven major markets, 2007-2017 70
Figure 24: Hypertension-specific sales ($m) forecast for Kredex in the seven major markets, 2007-2017 72
Figure 25: Forecast sales of calcium channel blockers in the seven major markets, 2007-2017 73
Figure 26: Hypertension -specific sales ($m) forecast for Norvasc in the US only, 2007-2017 76