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  4. > Canada Power Report Q3 2016

Canada Power Report Q3 2016

  • July 2016
  • -
  • Business Monitor International
  • -
  • 64 pages

Includes 3 FREE quarterly updates

BMI View: Growth in the Canadian power sector will be driven by the implementation of a vast pipeline ofhydropower projects, as well as political commitment to increasing the role of renewables and natural gasin the electricity mix. Weak growth in power consumption - compounded by the slump in oil prices - willlimit renewables investment opportunities outside of public incentive schemes, but we see upside potentialfrom ambitious renewables plans in Alberta and Saskatchewan.Latest Updates And Structural Trends

- The government of Ontario is progressing in the partial privatisation process of public utility Hydro One.In April 2016, the government sold a second tranche of shares of the utility, bringing the total sold to30%. According to the operation's manager, the sale of 60% of the company (the government'sprivatisation target) should be completed before the next provincial elections in 2018. The IPO for thecompany had been launched in November 2015.

- Details on Ontario's climate change action plan were released in May. Ontario's government willreportedly spend CAD7bn between 2017 and 2021 in a number of initiatives intended to reduce CO2emissions in the province, with a focus on the transportation sector and buildings. A cap-and-trade systemis part of the plan, which aims to cut emissions to 15% below 1990 levels by 2020, 37% by 2030 and80% by 2050.

- As part of its strategy to phase-out coal power generation by 2030 and boost renewables in the province,the government of Alberta is expected to release the schedule for the retirement of coal-fired powerplants over the coming months. The Alberta Electric System Operator has submitted an implementationplan to the provincial government, and is planning to hold a first procurement auction before the end of2016. We are waiting for more clarity on the government's plan - particularly in terms of the coal plants'retirement schedule - before including it in our forecast for the Canadian thermal and renewables powersector.

- Investor interest in the renewables market of Alberta and Saskatchewan is growing. In June 2016,Siemens Canada's wind and renewables division said that they expect up to CAD50bn to be spent onrenewables in the two provinces over the next 14 years. Moreover, it was reported in April that Canadianenergy company Suncor Energy is planning to develop 240MW of solar projects in Alberta, dividedbetween three projects expected to come online in 2018.

Table Of Contents

Canada Power Report Q3 2016
BMI Industry View 7
Table: Headline Power Forecasts (Canada 2014-2020) 7
SWOT 9
Industry Forecast 11
Canada Snapshot 11
Table: Country Snapshot: Economic and Demographic Data (Canada 2015-2020) 11
Table: Country Snapshot: Economic and Demographic Data (Canada 2020-2025) 11
Table: Country Snapshot: Power Sector 11
Canada Power Forecast Scenario 12
Electricity Generation And Power Generating Capacity 12
Table: Planned And Proposed New Reactors 19
Table: Completed Or Scheduled Hydropower Capacity Additions 21
Table: Total Electricity Generation Data And Forecasts (Canada 2014-2019) 24
Table: Total Electricity Generation Data And Forecasts (Canada 2020-2025) 25
Table: Electricity Generating Capacity Data And Forecasts (Canada 2014-2019) 26
Table: Electricity Generating Capacity Data And Forecasts (Canada 2020-2025) 27
Electricity Consumption 27
Table: Total Electricity Consumption Data And Forecasts (Canada 2014-2019) 29
Table: Total Electricity Consumption Data And Forecasts (Canada 2020-2025) 29
Transmission and Distribution, Imports and Exports 29
Table: Electric Power TandD Losses Data And Forecasts (Canada 2014-2019) 30
Table: Electric Power TandD Losses Data And Forecasts (Canada 2020-2025) 31
Table: Trade Data And Forecasts (Canada 2014-2019) 31
Table: Trade Data And Forecasts (Canada 2020-2025) 31
Industry Risk/Reward Index 32
Canada Power Risk/Reward Index 32
Rewards 32
Risks 32
NAWE Power RRI: US Outperforms Tepid European Power Markets 33
Market Overview 38
Key Policies And Market Structure 38
Regulation And Competition 38
Table: Canadian Power Industry - Structural Models 38
Table: Canadian Power Industry - Regulation 39
Sustainable Energy Policies 40
Pricing 41
Canada Power Projects Database 43
Competitive Landscape 45
BC Hydro 45
EPCOR 45
Hydro One 46
Maritime Electric 47
Ontario Power 47
Newfoundland Power 47
Nova Scotia Power 48
SaskPower 48
Enmax 48
Energie NB Power 49
ATCO 49
Regional Overview 50
NAWE Power Key Themes 50
Glossary 58
Table: Glossary Of Terms 58
Methodology 59
Methodology And Sources 59
Industry Forecast Methodology 59
Sources 62
Risk/Reward Index Methodology 62
Table: Power Risk/Reward Index Indicators 63
Table: Weighting Of Indicators 64

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