MarketVIEW: Dengue vaccines

  • March 2013
  • -
  • VacZine Analytics Group Of Assay Advantage Ltd

Dengue fever (DF) is a mosquito-borne disease (Aedes) which can affect two fifths of the world's population. DF infection has a wide spectrum of symptoms that range from a mild febrile illness to severe outcomes, even death as observed in dengue haemorrhagic fever (DHF) and dengue shock syndrome (DSS). Importantly, of the 22,000 estimated deaths per year, the large majority are in children (< 15yrs) where no specific treatment is available.

This MarketVIEW product forecasts the potential commercial value of dengue fever vaccine(s) across endemic and travelers markets to 2030. The model(s) contain value ($ m) and volume (mio doses) predictions for endemic countries in all age segments in both the public and private sector. LO and HI forecast scenarios which include expected demand from country selected catch-up campaigns are also detailed along with discussion of development considerations of the ideal dengue vaccine(s) in light of current pipeline candidates and new Sanofi CYD data.

Table Of Contents

Contents - Executive presentation 1 (MS PowerPoint based)

Contents
Authors note
Executive summary
Commercial model: key outputs
Dengue vaccine: available market ($ 000s) per age range
Dengue vaccine: predicted volume (doses 000s) per age range
Dengue vaccine: available market ($ 000s) per region
Dengue vaccine: available market ($ 000s) per funding type
Dengue vaccine: public funding required per country/region
Dengue vaccine: predicted cumulative vaccine coverage/region
Dengue vaccine: country wide versus partial vaccination ($ 000s)
Dengue vaccine: revenues per major competitor ($000s)
Dengue vaccine: potential travelers market
Dengue: background and epidemiology
Dengue: disease background
Manifestations of dengue infection
The global problem of dengue
Distribution of dengue, Western Hemisphere
Distribution of dengue, Eastern Hemisphere
Change in distribution of dengue serotypes
Dengue serotypes and relationship to disease symptoms
Dengue serotypes: concurrent infection
Dengue: average annual number of cases 1955 - 2007
Dengue: total cases reported per WHO region 2000 - 2010
Dengue: cumulative cases/deaths reported per WHO region 2000 - 201
Dengue endemic countries: rankings by cumulative reported cases
Dengue endemic countries: rankings by incidence
Top 10 dengue endemic countries: predominant serotypes
Dengue endemic countries: incidence / income grid
Factors contributing to the global increase of dengue
Major gaps in the knowledge of dengue disease burden
Dengue: economic burden
Dengue: The role and development of a preventative vaccine
Dengue infection: immunological aspects
Dengue vaccine opportunity: ideal target product profile
Notes on clinical development of dengue vaccine
Notes on clinical trial endpoints
Dengue vaccine: long term safety
Commercial model: Detailed assumptions per WHO region/country (endemic)
Broad market segments for a dengue vaccine
Modelling strategy: country/region inclusion
Modelling strategy: dengue disease burden
Modelling strategy: target populations (endemic)
Modelling strategy: launch sequence/roll-out (endemic)
Dengue vaccine: estimated launch sequence per country group
Dengue vaccine: estimated order of vaccine use in target age groups
PAHO region: estimated launch dates per segment
SEA region: estimated launch dates per segment
WPR region: estimated launch dates per segment
Modelling strategy: defining uptake rates (1 - 2 years), public
PAHO region: estimating uptake of dengue vaccine (1 - 2 yrs)
SEA region: estimating uptake of dengue vaccine (1 - 2 yrs)
WPR region: estimating uptake of dengue vaccine (1 - 2 yrs)
PAHO region: estimating catch-up implementation
SEA region: estimating catch-up implementation
WPR region: estimating catch-up implementation
Modelling strategy: estimating catch-up volume
Case study for potential dengue catch-up campaigns
Modelling strategy: estimating 15 - 49 yrs volume
PAHO region: estimating 15 - 49 yrs uptake
SEA region: estimating 15 - 49 yrs uptake
WPR region: estimating 15 - 49 yrs uptake
Modelling strategy: boosting/compliance
Pricing case studies for a dengue vaccine
Dengue vaccine: prices used in commercial model
Commercial model: Detailed assumptions - travelers
Dengue vaccine: schedule considerations for travelers segment
Commercial model assumptions: per region of traveler origin
Example penetration rates of travel vaccines
Benchmarking dengue vaccine travel market estimation
Limitation of dengue vaccine commercial model
Comparisons with other demand analyses
Dengue vaccines: competitive environment
Dengue vaccine candidates
Sanofi Pasteur dengue vaccine program: background
Sanofi Pasteur dengue vaccine: global clinical plan
Sanofi Pasteur: CYD - format/components
Sanofi Pasteur: CYD - Phase I studies
Sanofi Pasteur: CYD - Phase II studies
Sanofi Pasteur: CYD - Phase II data (Mexico)
Sanofi Pasteur: CYD - Efficacy, proof of concept/Phase III
ChimeriVaxTM dengue: strengths/weaknesses
Inviragen: DENVax
Dengue vaccines: other approaches
ChimeriVaxTM dengue: strengths/weaknesses
Appendix I: Source material
WHO: Global immunization profile (1980 - 2009)
Countries having introduced Hib vaccine in 1997 and 2009
Hepatitis B vaccine case study: global coverage 1989-2009
Bibliography
About VacZine Analytics
Disclaimer
Back page
PAGES: 106 MS PowerPoint slides, fully referenced/sourced. Available in .pdf form

Contents - Executive presentation 2 (MS PowerPoint based)

Executive summary: adult market
Revenues per competitor adult market to 2030 ($ 000s)
Sanofi: revenues per region, adult market to 2030 ($ 000s)
Sanofi: Revenues per scenario, adult market to 2030 ($ 000s)
Inviragen: Revenues per region, adult market to 2030 ($ 000s)
Inviragen: Revenues per scenario, adult market to 2030 ($ 000s)
Executive summary: childhood market
Revenues per competitor 1 - 15 yrs market (full) to 2030 ($ 000s)
Revenues per competitor 1 - 15 yrs market (part) to 2030 ($ 000s)
Points to note
Follow-on vaccines: market share analysis
About VacZine Analytics
Disclaimer
Back page

PAGES: 20 MS PowerPoint slides, fully referenced/sourced. Available in .pdf form

Contents - Vaccine demand model (MS Excel-based) - endemic markets (public/private)
****NOTE: 2 models and one summary worksheet are included with this product
Title sheet
CHARTS - VAL
CHARTS - VOL
GRAND SUMMARY
Available Value Summary
Available Volume Summary
Value Summaries
PAHO region (pub) - value
PAHO region (priv) - value
SEA region (pub) - value
SEA region (priv) - value
WPR region (pub) - value
WPR region (priv) - value
Global price summary
Volume Summaries
PAHO region (pub) - volume
PAHO region (priv) - volume
SEA region (pub) - volume
SEA region (priv) - volume
WPR region (pub) - volume
WPR region (priv) - volume
Endemic countries ==>
PAHO region
Brazil
Mexico
Columbia
Venezuela
Other PAHO High income (pub)
Other PAHO Upper Middle (pub)
Other PAHO Lower Middle (pub)
Other PAHO Lower Middle (priv)
SEA region
Thailand (pub)
Thailand (priv)
Indonesia (pub)
Indonesia (priv)
India (pub)
India (priv)
Bangladesh (pub)
Bangladesh (priv)
Other SEA Lower Middle (pub)
Other SEA Lower Middle (priv)
Other SEA Low income (pub)
Other SEA Low income (priv)
SEA region
Singapore
Australia
Malaysia
Vietnam (pub)
Vietnam (priv)
China (pub)
China (priv)
Philippines (pub)
Philippines (priv)
Other WPR High income
Other WPR Upper middle income
Other WPR Lower middle income (pub)
Other WPR Lower middle income (priv)
Other WPR Low income (pub)
Other WPR Low income (priv)
Epidemiology
Epi summary
CHARTS1 - Epi
CHARTS2 - Epi
Dengue endemic (PAHO)
Dengue endemic (SEA)
Dengue endemic (WPR)
Country ranking (cases)
Country ranking (incidence)
All ranking (incidence/income)
Popuation databases
Immunization coverage rates
At risk country analysis
India
China
Australia
Back page

WORKSHEETS: ~80

Contents - Vaccine demand model (MS Excel-based) - travelers market
Title sheet
CHARTS
CHARTS
Summary val/vol
US - travelers (all live)
M5EU - travelers (all live)
Scand - travelers (all live)
Japan - travelers (all live)
Travelers (total)
Travelers per region
Travel planning and duration
Travel market sizes
US - military data
UK - military data
Back page

WORKSHEETS: ~15

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