MarketVIEW: Quadrivalent influenza vaccines

  • June 2012
  • -
  • VacZine Analytics Group Of Assay Advantage Ltd
  • -
  • 72 pages

Annual seasonal influenza epidemics typically affect 5-15% of the population with mainly upper respiratory tract infections. On a global basis around 3-5 million cases of severe illness are estimated each year with an associated 250,000 - 500,000 deaths (WHO figures). Annual influenza vaccination is the most effective method for preventing influenza virus infection and its complications. Recommended groups for influenza vaccination are usually those most vulnerable and include the elderly, very young and those with underlying chronic diseases. In the US, influenza vaccination recommendations now include every person >6 mos. Influenza vaccines are predominantly of the trivalent inactivated format (TIV) although latest advances include the addition of another B virus strain to form quadrivalent (QIV) vaccines . 

This MarketVIEW product is a comprehensive MS Excel-based model + summary presentation which forecasts the potential commercial value of Quadrivalent influenza (QIV) vaccines across major Western and 20 emerging markets to 2030. The model contains value ($ m) and volume (mio doses) predictions along with launch timeframe, pricing and penetration estimates. 3 possible uptake scenarios for QIVs are included based upon the level of populations targeted. Estimated potential revenues for the main competitors are also included along with a review of their development status to date. 

THIS PRODUCT IS A SUMMARY PRESENTATION + MODEL 

Table Of Contents

Executive summary
Quadrivalent influenza vaccines: key model outputs
Seasonal influenza vaccine(s): predicted market to 2030 (GLOBAL)
Seasonal influenza vaccine(s): predicted volume to 2030 (GLOBAL)
Seasonal influenza vaccine(s): predicted market by country to 2030 (WEST)
Seasonal influenza vaccine(s): predicted market by country to 2030 (ROW)
QIV vaccines: possible uptake scenarios (doses 000s)
QIV vaccines: competitor revenues per uptake scenario (2020)
Quadrivalent influenza vaccines: background/rationale for development
Brief background to seasonal influenza
Influenza virus types
Antigenic evolution of influenza viruses
Focus on the influenza B virus
Influenza B virus lineages
Influenza B virus prevalence
Influenza B virus prevalence (US), 2001 - 2011
Influenza B virus prevalence (EU), 2001 - 2011
Influenza B virus disease
Influenza B virus and vaccination
Influenza season and B lineage (US), 2001 - 2011
Influenza B Strains recommended for inclusion in recent years
Influenza season and B lineage (EU), 2001 - 2011
The need for a quadrivalent (QIV) influenza vaccine
Questions raised by QIV vaccines
QIV vaccines: manufacturing issues
QIV formats previously under consideration
Quadrivalent influenza vaccines: summary of competitor activity to date
AZ/MedImmune: QIV vaccine development
MedImmune: Overview of QIV studies
MedImmune: chronology of QIV regulatory review
MedImmune: Phase II/III data 18-49 yrs
MedImmune: Phase III data 2-17 yrs
MedImmune: further studies
Sanofi Pasteur: QIV vaccine development
Sanofi Pasteur: Phase II data - adults
Sanofi Pasteur: Phase II data > 65 yrs
Sanofi Pasteur: Phase III studies/notes
GSK: QIV vaccine development
Novartis Vaccines: QIV vaccine development
Quadrivalent influenza vaccines: modelling potential demand/commercial value
Countries included in analysis
Populations modelled to 2030
Modelling strategy: segments/countries
ROW Countries modelled: summary of schedule/volumes
West Countries modelled: summary of schedule/volumes
Coverage assumptions per country/target group (West)
Coverage assumptions per country/target group (ROW)
Private sector growth rates applied: LO
Private sector growth rates applied: HI
Modelling strategy: TIV pricing
Modelling strategy: QIV pricing
QIV vaccines: estimated launch dates
QIV vaccines: possible uptake scenarios
QIV vaccines: possible uptake scenarios/market share
QIVs: competitor market share estimates: uptake scenarios 1 and 2
QIVs: competitor market share estimates: uptake scenarios 3
Commercial model: caveats
References/bibliography
About VacZine Analytics
Disclaimer
PAGES: 72 MS PowerPoint slides, fully referenced/sourced. Available in .pdf form
Contents - Vaccine demand model (MS Excel-based)
Title sheet
QIV analysis =>
CHARTS QIV competitors
CHARTS QIV VOL scenarios
SCENARIO 1
SCENARIO 2
SCENARIO 3
Demand analyses
CHARTS ALL VAL VOL
CHARTS WEST VAL
CHARTS ROW VOL
Grand value ROW (pub and priv)
Grand value WEST (pub and priv)
TIV pricing summary
Grand volume ROW (pub and priv)
Grand volume WEST (pub and priv)
Total volume sum (private ROW)
Total volume sum (private West)
Total volume sum (public ROW)
Total volume sum (public West)
Volume summary (infant risk)
Volume summary (2-19 yrs risk)
Volume summary (19-65 yrs risk)
Volume summary (> 65 yrs)
Private sector growth rates
Country worksheets (all segments)
USA
Canada
United Kingdom
France
Germany
Italy
Argentina
Australia
Brazil
China
Hong Kong
India
Indonesia
Japan
Macau
Malaysia
Mexico
Mongolia
Nepal
Pakistan
Philippines
Russia
South Korea
Taiwan
Thailand
Vietnam
Resources =>>
Country actual volume data (West)
Country actual volume data (ROW)
Schedules influenza
Population databases
% private
Back page
Worksheets = >120 interconnected

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