MarketVIEW: Enterovirus-71 vaccines

  • February 2012
  • -
  • VacZine Analytics Group Of Assay Advantage Ltd

Enterovirus-71 (EV-71), a small member of the picornaviridae virus family, is a major causative agent of “hand foot and mouth” HFMD disease in South East Asia. In some countries EV-71 related HFMD outbreaks appear to be increasing in magnitude and frequency and are responsible for significant childhood mortality (905 deaths in China 2010) (est CFR 0.03%). Like Japanese encephalitis (JEV), an inactivated EV-71 vaccine has high likelihood of region specific national adoption in the SE Asia. Four such vaccines appear to be in late stage clinical trials in China with the first launch expected 2014.

This MarketVIEW product is a comprehensive commercial opportunity assessment which forecasts the potential of EV-71 vaccines to 2030 in the SE Asia region. The product examines different scenarios of sucessive country based vaccine deployment in the <1 yrs and 1-5 yrs age groups. Detailed coverage of latest EV-71 epidemiology (outbreaks) is included, also a focus on development history/approaches to date and coverage of latest cost effectiveness issues. Expected revenues per competitor (public) sector are included for the late stage Phase III programs operated by Sinovac and China National Biotech Group (Beijing Vigoo Biological Co Ltd).

This product is an ideal starting point for any manufacturer wishing to assess this emerging market in the SE Asia region.

THIS PRODUCT IS A EXECUTIVE PRESENTATION + 2 MODELS

Table Of Contents

Contents - Executive presentation (MS PowerPoint based)

Author’s note
Executive summary
Commercial model - key outputs
EV-71 vaccine(s): scenario definitions
Total available global market to 2030: EV-71 vaccine(s)
EV-71 vaccine: available market (0-5 yrs) to 2030
EV-71 vaccine: total predicted volume (0-5 yrs) to 2030
EV-71 vaccine: available market (EV-71 vaccine: available market (1-5 yrs) to 2030
EV-71 vaccine: China market to 2030 (0-5 yrs) to 2030
Total available global market to 2030: EV-71 vaccine(s) (public/private)
SE Asia: cumulative first 5 year spend (public)
Revenues per competitor to 2030: EV-71 vaccine(s) 0-5 yrs (CHINA)
EV-71: epidemiology overview
EV-71: the pathogen
Comparing endemic diseases
EV-71: timeline
Epidemiology: latest outbreaks in Asia
Epidemiology: incidence rates by country
Epidemiology: China
HFMD incidence rate, by province, January-May 2011, China
HFMD incidence rate, by province, January-May 9, 2008, China
Distribution of HFMD cases by province, January-May 2011, China
Distribution of severe HFMD cases (A) and deaths (B) by province, January-May 2011, China
Epidemiology: Taiwan
Epidemiology: Thailand
Epidemiology: Vietnam
Epidemiology: Malaysia
Epidemiology: South Korea
Epidemiology: Japan
HFMD annual and weekly cases, sentinel-reports, Japan
Percentage of HFMD cases by age group, sentinel-reports, 2000-2011
Virus isolation/detection from aseptic meningitis cases, 2008-2012, Japan
Epidemiology: Singapore
Epidemiology: US
Epidemiology: Europe
Epidemiology: Other
EV-71: mortality
EV-71: morbidity
EV-71 vaccine: modeling commercial potential
EV-71 vaccine opportunity: ideal target product profile
Modeling strategy: country/region inclusion
EV-71 vaccine commercial model: countries included/scenarios
Modeling strategy: target populations (endemic)
EV-71 vaccine: estimated order of vaccine use in target age groups
Modeling strategy: launch sequence/roll-out (endemic)
SE Asian countries: estimated launch dates per segment
Other countries: estimated launch dates per segment
EV-71: vaccine stockpile in Western countries?
EV-71: vaccine: cost effectiveness analysis
EV-71: prices used in model
EV-71: vaccinology, summary of competitor programs
EV-71: vaccine: immunological aspects
EV-71: summary of vaccine approaches to date
EV-71: vaccine: need for cross protection
Evidence for the possibility of single genotype vaccine for EV-71
Evidence against the possibility of single genotype vaccine for EV-71
EV-71 vaccine: cross protection - other points to note
Other Coxsackieviruses and HFMD
Vaccine pipeline
Estimating market share (CHINA)
Opportunity for new treatments
Bibliography
Disclaimer
About VacZine Analytics

PAGES: ~90 MS PowerPoint slides, fully referenced/sourced. Available in .pdf form

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