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Zambia Pharmaceuticals and Healthcare Report Q4 2016

  • October 2016
  • -
  • Business Monitor International
  • -
  • 52 pages

Includes 3 FREE quarterly updates

BMI View:

Zambia's pharmaceutical and healthcare sector growth story will remain relatively constructive over the next few quarters on the back of improving economic and fiscal indicators. In fact, compared to 2015 and most of 2016, we anticipate Zambia's improved fiscal position in the coming years owing to recovering copper prices and reduced imports of food and power as El Niño-induced droughts abate, which will feed through improved levels of government spending on healthcare and higher private consumption in the sector.
Headline Expenditure Forecast

- Pharmaceuticals: ZMW1.67bn (USD194mn) in 2015 to ZMW1.80bn (USD174mn) in 2016; +7.8% in local currency terms and -10.0% in US dollar terms. Forecast revised upwards in US dollar terms compared to the previous quarter.

- Healthcare: ZMW9.46bn (USD1.10bn) in 2015 to ZMW10.72bn (USD1.04bn) in 2016; +13.3% in local currency terms and -5.4% in US dollar terms. Forecast revised upwards in US dollar terms compared to the previous quarter. In Q416, we have revised upwards Zambia's Risk/Reward Index score to 29.9 from 26.3 previously (out of 100). The score revision was mainly driven by higher sector value growth indices. Zambia has shifted up three ranking positions to 26th in terms of market attractiveness to pharmaceutical investors out of 32 countries monitored in the Middle East and Africa (MEA) region. Zambia score is driven by high population growth and sustained healthcare sector development but is dragged down by the small market size and low spending per capita on medicine.

Table Of Contents

Zambia Pharmaceuticals and Healthcare Report Q4 2016
BMI Industry View 5
Table: Headline Pharmaceuticals and Healthcare Forecasts (Zambia 2014-2020) 5
SWOT 7
Industry Forecast 9
Pharmaceutical Market Forecast 9
Table: Pharmaceutical Sales, Historical Data And Forecasts (Zambia 2012-2020) 12
Healthcare Market Forecast 13
Table: Healthcare Expenditure Trends, Historical Data And Forecasts (Zambia 2012-2020) 16
Table: Government Healthcare Expenditure Trends, Historical Data And Forecasts (Zambia 2012-2020) 16
Table: Private Healthcare Expenditure Trends, Historical Data And Forecasts (Zambia 2012-2020) 16
Industry Risk Reward Index 17
Middle East And Africa Risk/Reward Index - Q4 2016 17
Zambia Risk/Reward Index 25
Rewards 25
Risks 25
Regulatory Review 27
Market Overview 32
Healthcare Sector 35
Epidemiology 38
Demographic Forecast 41
Table: Population Headline Indicators (Zambia 1990-2025) 42
Table: Key Population Ratios (Zambia 1990-2025) 42
Table: Urban/Rural Population and Life Expectancy (Zambia 1990-2025) 43
Table: Population By Age Group (Zambia 1990-2025) 43
Table: Population By Age Group % (Zambia 1990-2025) 44
Glossary 46
Methodology 48
Pharmaceutical Expenditure Forecast Model 48
Healthcare Expenditure Forecast Model 48
Notes On Methodology 49
Risk/Reward Index Methodology 50
Index Overview 51
Table: Pharmaceutical Risk/Reward Index Indicators 51
Indicator Weightings 52

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