In-depth Analysis of China's Shipbuilding Industry 2008

In terms of the global shipbuilding market competition, in the first half of 2008 China contracted 455 new ships, down 48.30 per cent year-on-year; carrying capacity 29,004,700 DWT, down 44.97 per cent year-on-year. The new ship orders fell faster than the overall level, therefore, the total market share of China's shipbuilding industry in the global shipbuilding market has dropped from 42.96 per cent in the last year same period to 33.71 per cent in the first half of 2008, a decrease of 9.26 percentage points; the reason of decreasing market share of China’s shipbuilding industry is structural changes of new ships’ type, for instance, last year, bulk carrier dominated the market, but, in the first half of 2008 oil tanker, particular VLCC has rebounded quickly, but, China does not have advantages on the building up of VLCC and other high-tech ships.

In the first half of 2008, the total output of China's civil steel ship was 10,145,100 tons, up 42.53 per cent year-on-year; the growth rate is faster than 2007, which was 29.35 per cent. In the past five years, the average annual compound growth of China’s civil ship output was 24 per cent.

In the first five months of 2008, China's ship repair and ship-breaking industry achieved 24.237 billion yuan sales income, an increase of 76.19 per cent year-on-year, 24 percentage points faster than the same period last year and 4.9 24 percentage points higher than 2007; ship’s fitting achieved 12.348 billion yuan revenue, an increase of 76.65 per cent year-on-year, 31.6 percentage points faster than the same period last year and 27.8 percentage points higher than 2007.

China is a developing country, the economic growth has been maintained significantly for more than 10 years, the GDP growth of 2007 was 11.40 per cent, in terms of the stimulating domestic investment and consumption, the Chinese economy growth will still maintain around 10 per cent in the next two years, the GDP growth of 2008 and 2009 is expected to increase 10.20 per cent and 9.80 per cent respectively, also considering the growth of world economy and world trade in the next two years will still maintain a certain growth, therefore, after the shipbuilding industry experienced a boom peak in 2007, it will enter a stable growth period in 2008.

China's strong economic growth has promoted the demand of sea and river transportation from iron ore, coal, grain, construction materials and other bulk, in 2006 and 2007, the total increment of China imported iron ore was exceeded the total increment of global sea transportation; the total sea transportation volume of coal, iron ore, grain and construction materials reached 576 million tons. According to forecasts, by 2011 these types of dry bulk cargo transport volume will reach 850 million tons in China, accounting for one four of the global sea transport volume of dry bulk and 552 million tons coal will need 300 handy size bulk carriers with 4-5 million tons each.

Contents


1 Circumstance of global shipbuilding industry in the first half of 2008
1.1 The total 86 million tons new ship contracts
1.2 The rebound of oil tanker
1.3 The decreased market share of China's shipbuilding industry in the global market

2 The ship price in a short term will stay a high level
2.1 Price index has still rose slightly
2.2 The various rising prices of different type ships
2.3 The price in a short term will stay in a high level

3 The development of China's shipbuilding industry will maintain steadily
3.1 2007 was the relative boom peak of China’s shipbuilding industry
3.2 Performance of the first half of 2008
3.2.1 The continued rapid growth of output of shipbuilding industry
3.2.2 The continued rapid growth of revenue
3.2.3 Faster growth of profit
3.2.4 Faster growth of Ship repairing and ship equipments
3.3 The demand of shipbuilding market will reach dynamic equilibrium by 2010
3.3.1 2008 will enter a stable growth period
3.3.2 Bulk carrier will be the hot point in the coming years

4 Analysis the risk of appreciation of RMB
4.1 The great impact of appreciation of Japanese yen on the Japanese shipbuilding industry
4.2 The successful hedge of South Korean shipbuilding industry from the appreciation of South Korean Won
4.3 Analysis of the impact of the appreciation of Japan, China and South Korea currency on their shipbuilding industry

5 Key companies
5.1 China State Shipbuilding Corporation
5.1.1 Shipbuilding business
5.1.2 Ship repair- Chengxi shipyard and Wenchong Shipyard
5.1.3 Equipment- HHM and Zhongchuan Mitsui
5.2 Guangzhou Shipyard International Co., Ltd


Figure Index
The global turnover of new ship in the first half of 2008
The proportion of the turnover in the first half of the year against the whole year
The global turnover of oil tanker
The turnover of new VLCC
The price index of new ship yearly
The price index of new ship monthly
The price index of oil tankers, bulk carriers and container ships yearly
The growth of new ship turnover and contract price 1997-2007
The changes of the confirmed contracts 2003-2007
The price of steel March 19, 2008 -July 7, 2008
The three major index of China's shipbuilding industry 2002-2007
The three major index of the global shipbuilding industry 2003-2007
The movement of the global shipbuilding industry
The profits of China's shipbuilding industry and CSSC
The output of China's civil steel ship
The revenue growth of metal shipping manufacturing
The profit growth of metal shipping manufacturing
The gross profit of China's metal shipping manufacturing
The expense rate of China's metal shipping manufacturing
The growth of income of shipbuilding industry’s sub-sector
The growth of profit of shipbuilding industry sub-sector
The gross profit of ship repair and ship-breaking industry
The gross profit of Shipping corollary equipment manufacturing
The WTI crude oil price July 7, 2007- July 7, 2008
The WTI crude oil prices Jan 1978-July 2008
The turnover and knocked down price of global new ships 1980-2007
Forecast and changes of the world economy, world trade and China's economy2004-2009
The product life circle of China, Japan and South Korea’s shipbuilding industry
The contract time of ship of the past years
The marine volume of the World dry bulk cargo 2000-2007
The volume of China imported iron ore 1996-2007
The growth of bulk cargo volume of global and China 2003-2007
The completion of the World bulk carrier 2003-2007
The global new orders of bulk carrier2003-2007
The in-hand orders of the world bulk carrier 203-2007
BDI index Jan 7,1999-July 2, 2008
BDI index Jan 1, 2007-July 2, 2008
The completion of China bulk carrier 2003-2007
The turnover of China new bulk carrier 2003-2007
The confirmed orders of China bulk carrier 2003-2007
Comparison of the price of 170,000 dwt bulk carriers
The balance of supply and demand of the world dry bulk carrying capacity
The category of the world new orders of bulk carrier Jan-May 2008
The exchange rate between Japanese yen and U.S dollar 1970-1990
The turnover of global new ships 1970-1990
The turnover of Japanese new ships and confirmed orders 1973-1990
The profit ratio of the Japanese top ten shipbuilding manufacturers
1973-1980
The exchange rate between South Korean won and U.S dollar 1980-2007
The reduction of the South Korean ship’s orders during the won appreciation 1983-1990
The general loss of South Korean shipbuilding industry during won appreciation 1983-1990
The steady growth of South Korean ship orders during won appreciation 2001-2007
The soared profitability of South Korean shipbuilding industry during won appreciation 2001-2007
The major subordinate enterprises of China State Shipbuilding Corporation and its equity proportion
The completion of Waigaoqiao shipyard 2007
The delivery volume and contract amount of Waigaoqiao Shipyard 2008-2011
The delivery volume and contract amount of Jiangnan Changxing shipyard 2008-2012
The delivery volume and contract amount of Chengxi shipyard 2008-2011
Comparison of the global ship numbers and needed repair ship numbers
proportion of oil tankers and bulk carriers
Total amount of oil tankers and bulk carriers
The proportion of single-hull oil tankers and tonnage of the total oil tanker
Chengxi shipyard ranked the third position in China ship repair industry in 2007
The rising growth of ship repair revenue of Chengxi shipyard
The types of repair ship of Wenchong shipyard
Customers distribution of Wenchong shipyard
The gap between supply and demand of domestic high-power low-speed marine diesel
The production capacity of HHM
The forecast of the output of diesel engine of HHM and Zhongchuan Mitsui


Table Index


The new ship of contract by type in the first half of 2008
The new ship of contact by country in the first half of 2008
The prices for new ships
Comparison of the three shipbuilding index between China and global 2007
The operation data of China shipbuilding industry 2005-2007
China has driven the growth of the global maritime transport of iron ore
The volume of China's coastal dry bulk cargo and forecast
The new orders of the world bulk carrier Jan-May 2008
The bankrupt of the Japanese shipyards 1976-1978
RMB
The measures of Japan and South Korea shipbuilding deal with the currency appreciation
The measures of China's shipbuilding industry cope with the currency appreciation