Top Insights for Oil Markets:
Decrease in fuel consumption due to COVID-19 caused reduction in crude oil throughput. In addition,
global crude oil supply increased significantly due to a geopolitically driven crude oil price war.
According to the International Energy Agency, by the end of the third quarter of 2020, oil
consumption will rise steeply, due to the expected recovery of the economy and the end
of lockdown measures.
Wholesale propane supply prices were lower primarily due to the increase in propane
inventory levels in the U.S. compared to the prior year quarter, driven by decreased
propane exports out of North America and the impact from lower average West Texas
Intermediate ("WTI") crude oil prices compared to the prior year quarter.
Overview per country:
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- US: For all of 2020, EIA forecasts that U.S. motor gasoline consumption will average
8.3 million b/d, a decrease of 11% compared with 2019, while jet fuel and distillate
fuel oil consumption will fall by 25% and 10%, respectively, during the same period.
EIA forecasts U.S. crude oil production will average 11.7 million b/d in 2020,
down 0.5 million b/d from 2019.
- China: In addition to a forecast by the Chinese National Petroleum Company of a 2%
year-over- year increase in oil imports this year they also project Chinese apparent
crude oil consumption will increase by 1% to 2% this year.
- Norway: Norwegian gas production and exports will reduce somewhat due to oil production
cuts (as part of the April 2020 OPEC+ agreement) and low prices will also delay new developments.