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Country Forecast Turkey July 2018 Updater

Country Forecast Turkey July 2018 Updater

  • July 2018
  • ID: 1697602
  • Format: PDF
  • The Economist Intelligence Unit


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  • On June 24th Recep Tayyip Erdogan was re-elected as president for a second term in snap presidential and parliamentary elections. Mr Erdogan's conserva-tive Justice and Development Party (AKP) secured a coalition majority in parliament with the right-wing, Nationalist Action Party (MHP).
  • The Economist Intelligence Unit expects Mr Erdogan and the AKP to remain in power throughout the forecast period (2018-22), and possibly beyond.
  • Following the June elections an executive presidency now replaces the former parliamentary system of government. The new system will provide few checks on the president's powers, raising the risk of discretionary policymaking.
  • Since the failed coup in 2016 there has been a marked deterioration in Turkey's relations with its Western allies. We expect a complete rupture to be avoided, but tensions will remain high.
  • Turkey's relationship with the US will deteriorate in 2018-22, owing to bilateral tensions that appear hard to resolve. The possible US imposition of sanctions on Turkish banks for evading US Iran-related sanctions is a risk.
  • Turkey's relationship with the EU will become increasingly transactional. Turkey will not make progress with accession talks and is unlikely to manage to renegotiate the terms of its customs union with the EU.
  • Uncertainty about the direction of Turkey's economic policy continues to cloud the country's medium-term economic outlook. The government's focus on domestic power struggles and foreign-policy challenges has blocked the economic reforms needed to improve the business and investment climate.
  • We forecast a slowdown in real GDP growth from 7.3% in 2017 to about 4% per year in 2018-22, reflecting higher taxes, higher interest rates, a gradual tightening of global liquidity and more moderate export growth.
  • The lira will depreciate in nominal terms against the US dollar throughout our forecast period, to almost TL5:US$1 at end-2022, as a result of negative foreign investors' sentiment, high inflation and a large current-account deficit.
  • We expect the current-account deficit to widen in 2018, to 6.7% of GDP, before contracting to a still large 4.8% per year on average in 2019-22. Turkey will struggle to meet its high external financing needs throughout our forecast period.

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