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Country Forecast Sweden July 2018 Updater

Country Forecast Sweden July 2018 Updater

  • July 2018
  • ID: 1697659
  • Format: PDF


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  • A coalition government comprising the Social Democratic Party (SAP) and the Green Party has been in office since 2014, replacing the four-party, centre-right Alliance for Sweden government, and The Economist Intelligence Unit expects it to last a full term, until September 2018.
  • After the election we expect a centre-right government, led by the Moderate Party, to take office, having received passive support from the far-right Sweden Democrats (SD) in order to form a government. This government will be weak and will struggle to last a full term.
  • The SD will play an important role in the government formation process, but will not exert any direct influence in policymaking in the short term. However, the integration of the SD in the government is a possibility at some point in the forecast period (2018-22).
  • Defence and security will be at the top of the political agenda ahead of the election. The campaign will focus on integration of immigrants, law and order, and gang crime, which has been growing over the past few months.
  • In 2016 the Riksbank (the central bank) cut its main policy rate to -0.5% and launched a quantitative easing programme that ran until end-2017. Until February 2019 the bank will also intervene, if necessary, in the foreign-exchange markets to offset appreciation pressures on the krona that would jeopardise its inflation target. We expect monetary policy to remain extremely accommodative, but forecast that the bank will increase interest rates in late 2018 for the first time since 2011. However, weak underlying inflationary pressures-measured by core inflation-pose a strong risk to this forecast.
  • After 2.5% growth in 2017, we expect economic growth to average 2.6% this year. Private consumption and investment will remain core drivers of growth, but will ease slightly, reflecting the housing market correction that took place in late 2017. In 2019-22 real GDP should grow by an average of 2.3%.

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