1. Market Research
Country Forecast Indonesia July 2018 Updater

Country Forecast Indonesia July 2018 Updater

  • July 2018
  • ID: 1697692

Summary

Table of Contents

Search Inside



  • The president, Joko Widodo (known as Jokowi), will complete his full five-year term in office and will contest the 2019 election. He will be challenged by Prabowo Subianto, the leader of the opposition Great Indonesia Movement Party (Gerindra) in the House of Representatives (DPR, the legislature), who lost to Jokowi in the 2014 ballot. The Economist Intelligence Unit's central forecast is that Jokowi will prevail at the 2019 elections.
  • Ahead of the elections, fiscal policy will be focused on supporting the economy. This includes raising energy subsidies in order to cap domestic fuel and electricity prices, which would in turn control inflation and thereby support private consumption. This will make it difficult for the government to balance its budget in the early part of the forecast period. There will be a slight narrowing in the fiscal deficit in 2021-22, when the economy will recover of its own accord.
  • Bank Indonesia (BI, the central bank) will tighten monetary policy through-out 2018-19. A technical recession in the US in 2020, when we expect the Federal Reserve (the US central bank) to stop raising interest rates, will lead to a year of neutral monetary policy in Indonesia. Incremental tightening will resume in 2021-22 as inflationary pressures build up on the back of firmer oil prices.
  • The local currency, the rupiah, will face depreciatory pressures in the early part of the forecast period, owing to a narrowing in Indonesia's interest-rate differential with the US, as well as rising trade tensions between the US and China. However, the depreciation will be gradual in 2018-20 owing to intervention by BI. The currency will return to a modestly appreciating trend in 2021-22 as global economic fundamentals improve.
  • Economic growth will remain below potential, owing to the slow pace of structural reforms and subdued global demand growth for commodities, but the government's infrastructure drive should help to keep investment growth relatively stable. We forecast that real GDP growth will average 5.1% a year in 2018-22.
  • The current account will remain in the red owing to a large and widening primary income deficit. We expect external borrowing costs to increase in line with monetary policy tightening in the US. The merchandise trade account will stay in the black, but the surplus will remain too small to offset the deficits on the services and primary income accounts. We forecast that the current-account shortfall will be equivalent to 2.4% of GDP on average in 2018-22.


Get Industry Insights. Simply.

  • Latest reports & slideshows with insights from top research analysts
  • 150+ Million searchable statistics with tables, figures & datasets
  • More than 25,000 trusted sources
  • Single User License — provides access to the report by one individual.
  • Department License — allows you to share the report with up to 5 users
  • Site License — allows the report to be shared amongst all employees in a defined country
  • Corporate License — allows for complete access, globally.
Ahmad helps you find the right report:
Testimonials

The research specialist advised us on the best content for our needs and provided a great report and follow-up, thanks very much we shall look at ReportLinker in the future.

Kate Merrick

Global Marketing Manager at
Eurotherm by Schneider Electric

We were impressed with the support that ReportLinker’s research specialists’ team provided. The report we purchased was useful and provided exactly what we want.

Category Manager at
Ikea

ReportLinker gave access to reliable and useful data while avoiding dispersing resources and spending too much time on unnecessary research.

Executive Director at
PwC Advisory

The customer service was fast, responsive, and 100% professional in all my dealings (...) If we have more research needs, I'll certainly prioritize working with ReportLinker!

Scott Griffith

Vice President Marketing at
Maurice Sporting Goods

The research specialist provided prompt, helpful instructions for accessing ReportLinker's product. He also followed up to make sure everything went smoothly and to ensure an easy transition to the next stage of my research

Jessica P Huffman

Research Associate at
American Transportation Research Institute

Excellent customer service. Very responsive and fast.

Director, Corporate Strategy at
Ingredion

I reached out to ReportLinker for a detailed market study on the Air Treatment industry. The quality of the report, the research specialist’s willingness to solve my queries exceeded my expectations. I would definitely recommend ReportLinker for in-depth industry information.

Mariana Mendoza

Global Platform Senior Manager at
Whirlpool Corporation

Thanks! I like what you've provided and will certainly come back if I need to do further research works.

Bee Hin Png

CEO at
LDR Pte Ltd

The research specialist advised us on the best content for our needs and provided a great report and follow-up, thanks very much we shall look at ReportLinker in the future.

Kate Merrick

Global Marketing Manager at
Eurotherm by Schneider Electric

FAQ
  • How we can help
    • I am not sure if the report I am interested in will fulfill my needs. Can you help me?
    • Yes, of course. You can call us at +33(0) 4 37 65 17 03 or drop us an email at researchadvisor@reportlinker.com to let us know more about your requirements.
    • We buy reports often - can ReportLinker get me any benefits?
    • Yes. Set up a call with a Senior Research Advisor to learn more - researchadvisor@reportlinker.com or +33(0) 4 37 65 17 03.
    • I have had negative experiences with market research reports before. How can you avoid this from happening again?
    • We advise all clients to read the TOC and Summary and list your questions so that we can get more insight for you before you make any purchase decision. A research advisor will accompany you so that you can compare samples and reports from different sources, and choose the study that is right for you.

  • Report Delivery
    • How and when I will receive my Report?
    • Most reports are delivered right away in a pdf format, while others are accessed via a secure link and access codes. Do note that sometimes reports are sent within a 12 hour period, depending on the time zones. However, you can contact us to escalate this. Should you need a hard copy, you can check if this option is offered for the particular report, and pay the related fees.
  • Payment conditions
    • What payment methods do you accept?
      1. Credit card : VISA, American Express, Mastercard, or
      2. You can download an invoice to pay by wire transfer, check, or via a Purchase Order from your company, or
      3. You can pay via a Check made out in US Dollars, Euros, or British Pounds for the full amount made payable to ReportLinker
    • What are ReportLinker’s Payment Terms?
    • All payments must normally be submitted within 30 days. However, you can let us know if you need extended time.
    • Are Taxes and duties included?
    • All companies based in France must pay a 20% tax per report. The same applies to all individuals based in the EU. All EU companies must supply their VAT number when purchasing to avoid this charge.
    • I’m not satisfied. Can I be refunded?
    • No. Once your order has been processed and the publisher has received a notification to send you the report, we cannot issue any refund or cancel any order. As these are not ‘traditional’ products that can be returned, reports that are dispatched are considered to be ‘consumed’.
  • User license
    • The license that you should acquire depends on the number of persons that need to access the report. This can range from Single User (only one person will have the right to read or access the report), or Department License (up to 5 persons), to Site License (a group of persons based in the same company location), or Corporate License (the entire company personnel based worldwide). However, as publishers have different terms and conditions, we can look into this for you.

ref:plp2018

Reportlinker.com © Copyright 2018. All rights reserved.

ReportLinker simplifies how Analysts and Decision Makers get industry data for their business.

Make sure you don’t miss any news and follow us on