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Country Report Mozambique August 2017

Country Report Mozambique August 2017

  • August 2017
  • ID: 1697998
  • Format: PDF
  • The Economist Intelligence Unit


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Outlook for 2017-21

  • The ruling party, Frelimo, is forecast to remain in power, under the leadership of Filipe Nyusi. We expect it to secure re-election in the 2019 polls, but a power struggle between rival factions of Frelimo will stoke political volatility.
  • Tensions between Frelimo and Renamo (an elected party and an armed rebel movement) will further weaken stability, amid protracted talks over political decentralisation and military reform.
  • A liquidity crisis, triggered by an unmanageable debt burden and widespread aid freezes, will continue to destabilise the economy. We expect external debt to be restructured (eventually), but capital inflows will be slow to recover.
  • Fiscal policy will in the near term focus on cushioning the impact of the economic crisis on Mozambicans' livelihoods. However, with this strategy proving unsustainable, we expect tighter policy to be pursued from 2018.
  • Real GDP growth will remain weak (by historical standards) in 2017-18, owing to fragile domestic demand and low investment. A more robust economic recovery is forecast thereafter, driven by the development of the gas industry.
  • We forecast that the current-account deficit will contract, to 18.1% of GDP in 2018, as financing constraints slow import growth and higher coal output lifts exports. The deficit will widen thereafter as import demand strengthens.


  • A deal between Mr Nyusi and Renamo's leader, Afonso Dhlakama, set June 30th as the deadline for troops' withdrawal from Gorongosa, Renamo's de facto headquarters. But there is uncertainty over whether this was honoured.
  • The government has come under pressure from bondholders and local civil society to repudiate a stock of illegally contracted public liabilities. This would trigger an international legal battle.
  • An IMF staff team visited Mozambique in mid-July, but chose not to initiate discussions on relaunching a programme. Instead, the Fund called on the government to tighten its fiscal policy and to address the information gaps that remain following an audit into the country's stock of illegal debt.
  • The Banco de Moçambique (BDM, the central bank) transferred an 80% stake in Moza Banco (a failed private bank) to Kahanha (the BDM's pension fund), attracting criticism from civil society that this generated a conflict of interest.
  • Production began at Ancuabe graphite mine and processing plant in late June, with the project beginning its ramp-up to annual production capacity of 9,000 tonnes. All output is destined for the German market.
  • Mozal aluminium smelter recorded record-high production of 271,ooo tonnes in the year to June, up by 2% year on year.

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