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Commodity Price Forecasts

  • July 2017
  • 21 pages
  • Oxford Economics
Report ID: 1907493

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This month saw a significant surge in iron ore prices, while there were also double digit rallies in copper and oil. Every major commodity rose in July, as the US$ weakened and sentiment about China improved. But it is important to put this in context: iron ore and Brent are still down significantly so far this year. 

The signs were not good for oil heading into the latest OPEC gathering on 24 July. The cutback agreement monitoring committee met in Russia to assess current market conditions and progress. Ahead of this though, Ecuador had said it was pulling out of the arrangement and Libya and Nigeria had boosted output, which made life more difficult for other OPEC members. Saudi Arabia has pledged to cut its exports by 1mb/day y/y in August, but it was not clear what the implications would be for production or whether this cut would be extended beyond the summer. As a result, oil prices were only marginally higher after the meeting. We have maintained our bearish view on oil and the commodities complex. 



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