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Country Economic Forecasts > Iraq

  • August 2017
  • 8 pages
  • Oxford Economics
Report ID: 1907577

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Iraqi oil output remained close to 4.5m b/d in July, giving average production of just under 4.5m b/d for January-July, up 1% from the 2016 level. Under the oil producers' deal to try to support world oil prices agreed last November (and recently extended into Q1 2018), Iraq agreed to cut output by 210,000 b/d but its level of compliance to the target was just 34% in July. We remain sceptical about the chances of these cuts lasting, and still expect a small rise in Iraqi oil output this year. But with non-oil activity hampered by the impact of low oil prices on government spending and investment, together with ongoing political uncertainty, we now forecast GDP growth of about 3% in 2017-18, down a little from an estimated 4% in 2016, before a rise to just over 4% by 2020.

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