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Country Economic Forecasts > Cote d'Ivoire

Country Economic Forecasts > Cote d'Ivoire

  • January 2014
  • 4 pages
  • ID: 1972770
  • Format: PDF
  • By Oxford Economics

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The political and economic outlook has improved substantially since the end of the 2010-11 post-electoral conflict. We expect the recent healthy pace of economic growth to continue this year, with GDP forecast to increase 8.2% in 2014 after an estimated 8% last year. This robust growth reflects in part heavy public investment under the 2012-15 National Development Plan aimed at addressing major infrastructure deficiencies. Reduced infrastructure bottlenecks and the creation of a more business-friendly environment should see an increase in investment by the private sector. And the latest data are positive - business and consumer confidence are strong and the number of new business start-ups has increased.

Lower inflation, averaging under 3% last year, is providing some relief to households. And consumer spending should also be boosted by rising household incomes, as the government has implemented a number of 'pro-poor' policies, including reforms to the cocoa market that should lift the incomes of some 700,000 farmers.

We expect GDP growth to remain high over the medium term, averaging 7.8% in 2015-17, as private investment responds to the improved economic situation. A gradually strengthening global economy should also provide support to Ivorian exports, while a number of reforms in the agricultural sector will encourage increased farming activity.

However, the risks to the forecast are probably on the downside. If the current momentum behind reforms is not maintained, private investment will not pick up noticeably, despite the significant increases in public sector investment. In addition, further progress towards resolving the country's political problems ahead of next year's presidential elections may be required, otherwise renewed political tensions could again harm growth prospects.

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