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The 2019-2024 World Outlook for Industrial Pumps Excluding Hydraulic Fluid Power Pumps

The 2019-2024 World Outlook for Industrial Pumps Excluding Hydraulic Fluid Power Pumps

  • January 2018
  • 289 pages
  • ID: 1992511

Summary

Table of Contents

This study covers the world outlook for industrial pumps excluding hydraulic fluid power pumps across more than 190 countries. For each year reported, estimates are given for the latent demand, or potential industry earnings (P.I.E.), for the country in question (in millions of U.S. dollars), the percent share the country is of the region, and of the globe.

These comparative benchmarks allow the reader to quickly gauge a country vis-à-vis others. Using econometric models which project fundamental economic dynamics within each country and across countries, latent demand estimates are created.

This report does not discuss the specific players in the market serving the latent demand, nor specific details at the product level. The study also does not consider short-term cyclicalities that might affect realized sales.

The study, therefore, is strategic in nature, taking an aggregate and long-run view, irrespective of the players or products involved. This study does not report actual sales data (which are simply unavailable, in a comparable or consistent manner in virtually all of the countries of the world).

This study gives, however, my estimates for the worldwide latent demand, or the P.I.E., for industrial pumps excluding hydraulic fluid power pumps. It also shows how the P.I.E. is divided across the world’s regional and national markets. For each country, I also show my estimates of how the P.I.E. grows over time (positive or negative growth). In order to make these estimates, a multi-stage methodology was employed that is often taught in courses on international strategic planning at graduate schools of business.

1.3 THE METHODOLOGY
In order to estimate the latent demand for industrial pumps excluding hydraulic fluid power pumps on a worldwide basis, I used a multi-stage approach. Before applying the approach, one needs a basic theory from which such estimates are created.

In this case, I heavily rely on the use of certain basic economic assumptions. In particular, there is an assumption governing the shape and type of aggregate latent demand functions.

Latent demand functions relate the income of a country, city, state, household, or individual to realized consumption. Latent demand (often realized as consumption when an industry is efficient), at any level of the value chain, takes place if an equilibrium is realized.

For firms to serve a market, they must perceive a latent demand and be able to serve that demand at a minimal return. The single most important variable determining consumption, assuming latent demand exists, is income (or other financial resources at higher levels of the value chain). Other factors that can pivot or shape demand curves include external or exogenous shocks (i.e., business cycles), and or changes in utility for the product in question.

Ignoring, for the moment, exogenous shocks and variations in utility across countries, the aggregate relation between income and consumption has been a central theme in economics. The figure below concisely summarizes one aspect of problem.

In the 1930s, John Meynard Keynes conjectured that as incomes rise, the average propensity to consume would fall. The average propensity to consume is the level of consumption divided by the level of income, or the slope of the line from the origin to the consumption function.

He estimated this relationship empirically and found it to be true in the short-run (mostly based on cross-sectional data). The higher the income, the lower the average propensity to consume.

This type of consumption function is shown as "B" in the figure below (note the rather flat slope of the curve). In the 1940s, another macroeconomist, Simon Kuznets, estimated long-run consumption functions which indicated that the marginal propensity to consume was rather constant (using time series data across countries). This type of consumption function is show as "B" in the figure below (note the higher slope and zero-zero intercept).

The average propensity to consume is constant. For a general overview of this subject area, see Principles of Macroeconomics by N. Gregory Mankiw, South-Western College Publishing; ISBN: 0030340594; 2nd edition (February 2002).

Is it declining or is it constant? A number of other economists, notably Franco Modigliani and Milton Friedman, in the 1950s (and Irving Fisher earlier), explained why the two functions were different using various assumptions on intertemporal budget constraints, savings, and wealth. The shorter the time horizon, the more consumption can depend on wealth (earned in previous years) and business cycles.

In the long-run, however, the propensity to consume is more constant. Similarly, in the long-run, households, industries, or countries with no income eventually have no consumption (wealth is depleted).

While the debate surrounding beliefs about how income and consumption are related and interesting, in this study a very particular school of thought is adopted. In particular, we are considering the latent demand for industrial pumps excluding hydraulic fluid power pumps across some 190 countries.

The smallest have fewer than 10,000 inhabitants. I assume that all of these counties fall along a "long-run" aggregate consumption function.

This long-run function applies despite some of these countries having wealth; current income dominates the latent demand for industrial pumps excluding hydraulic fluid power pumps. So, latent demand in the long-run has a zero intercept. However, I allow firms to have different propensities to consume (including being on consumption functions with differing slopes, which can account for differences in industrial organization, and end-user preferences).

Given this overriding philosophy, I will now describe the methodology used to create the latent demand estimates for industrial pumps excluding hydraulic fluid power pumps. Since ICON Group has asked me to apply this methodology to a large number of categories, the rather academic discussion below is general and can be applied to a wide variety of categories, not just industrial pumps excluding hydraulic fluid power pumps.

1.3.1 STEP 1. PRODUCT DEFINITION AND DATA COLLECTION
Any study of latent demand across countries requires that some standard be established to define "efficiently served". Having implemented various alternatives and matched these with market outcomes, I have found that the optimal approach is to assume that certain key countries are more likely to be at or near efficiency than others.

These countries are given greater weight than others in the estimation of latent demand compared to other countries for which no known data are available. Of the many alternatives, I have found the assumption that the world’s highest aggregate income and highest income-per-capita markets reflect the best standards for "efficiency".

High aggregate income alone is not sufficient (i.e., China has high aggregate income, but low income per capita and cannot be assumed to be efficient). Aggregate income can be operationalized in a number of ways, including gross domestic product (for industrial categories), or total disposable income (for household categories; population times average income per capita, or number of households times average household income per capita).

Brunei, Nauru, Kuwait, and Lichtenstein are examples of countries with high income per capita, but not assumed to be efficient, given low aggregate level of income (or gross domestic product); these countries have, however, high incomes per capita but may not benefit from the efficiencies derived from economies of scale associated with large economies. Only countries with high income per capita and large aggregate income are assumed efficient. This greatly restricts the pool of countries to those in the OECD (Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development), like the United States, or the United Kingdom (which were earlier than other large OECD economies to liberalize their markets).

The selection of countries is further reduced by the fact that not all countries in the OECD report have industry revenues at the category level. Countries that typically have ample data at the aggregate level that meet the efficiency criteria include the United States, the United Kingdom, and in some cases France and Germany.

Is it declining or is it constant? A number of other economists, notably Franco Modigliani and Milton Friedman, in the 1950s (and Irving Fisher earlier), explained why the two functions were different using various assumptions on intertemporal budget constraints, savings, and wealth. The shorter the time horizon, the more consumption can depend on wealth (earned in previous years) and business cycles.

In the long-run, however, the propensity to consume is more constant. Similarly, in the long-run, households, industries, or countries with no income eventually have no consumption (wealth is depleted).

While the debate surrounding beliefs about how income and consumption are related and interesting, in this study a very particular school of thought is adopted. In particular, we are considering the latent demand for industrial pumps excluding hydraulic fluid power pumps across some 190 countries.

The smallest have fewer than 10,000 inhabitants. I assume that all of these counties fall along a "long-run" aggregate consumption function.

This long-run function applies despite some of these countries having wealth; current income dominates the latent demand for industrial pumps excluding hydraulic fluid power pumps. So, latent demand in the long-run has a zero intercept. However, I allow firms to have different propensities to consume (including being on consumption functions with differing slopes, which can account for differences in industrial organization, and end-user preferences).

Given this overriding philosophy, I will now describe the methodology used to create the latent demand estimates for industrial pumps excluding hydraulic fluid power pumps. Since ICON Group has asked me to apply this methodology to a large number of categories, the rather academic discussion below is general and can be applied to a wide variety of categories, not just industrial pumps excluding hydraulic fluid power pumps.

1.3.1 STEP 1. PRODUCT DEFINITION AND DATA COLLECTION
Any study of latent demand across countries requires that some standard be established to define "efficiently served". Having implemented various alternatives and matched these with market outcomes, I have found that the optimal approach is to assume that certain key countries are more likely to be at or near efficiency than others.

These countries are given greater weight than others in the estimation of latent demand compared to other countries for which no known data are available. Of the many alternatives, I have found the assumption that the world’s highest aggregate income and highest income-per-capita markets reflect the best standards for "efficiency".

High aggregate income alone is not sufficient (i.e., China has high aggregate income, but low income per capita and cannot be assumed to be efficient). Aggregate income can be operationalized in a number of ways, including gross domestic product (for industrial categories), or total disposable income (for household categories; population times average income per capita, or number of households times average household income per capita).

Brunei, Nauru, Kuwait, and Lichtenstein are examples of countries with high income per capita, but not assumed to be efficient, given low aggregate level of income (or gross domestic product); these countries have, however, high incomes per capita but may not benefit from the efficiencies derived from economies of scale associated with large economies. Only countries with high income per capita and large aggregate income are assumed efficient. This greatly restricts the pool of countries to those in the OECD (Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development), like the United States, or the United Kingdom (which were earlier than other large OECD economies to liberalize their markets).

The selection of countries is further reduced by the fact that not all countries in the OECD report have industry revenues at the category level. Countries that typically have ample data at the aggregate level that meet the efficiency criteria include the United States, the United Kingdom, and in some cases France and Germany.

Latent demand is therefore estimated using data collected for relatively efficient markets from independent data sources (e.g. Euromonitor, Mintel, Thomson Financial Services, the U.S. Industrial Outlook, the World Resources Institute, the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development, various agencies from the United Nations, industry trade associations, the International Monetary Fund, and the World Bank).

Depending on original data sources used, the definition of industrial pumps excluding hydraulic fluid power pumps is established. In the case of this report, the data were reported at the aggregate level, with no further breakdown or definition.

In other words, any potential products and/or services that might be incorporated within industrial pumps excluding hydraulic fluid power pumps fall under this category. Public sources rarely report data at the disaggregated level in order to protect private information from individual firms that might dominate a specific product-market.

These sources will therefore aggregate across components of a category and report only the aggregate to the public. While private data are certainly available, this report only relies on public data at the aggregate level without reliance on the summation of various category components.

In other words, this report does not aggregate a number of components to arrive at the "whole". Rather, it starts with the "whole", and estimates the whole for all countries and the world at large (without needing to know the specific parts that went into the whole in the first place).

Given this caveat, this study covers industrial pumps excluding hydraulic fluid power pumps as defined by the North American Industrial Classification system or NAICS (pronounced "nakes").

The NAICS code for industrial pumps excluding hydraulic fluid power pumps is 3339111. It is for this definition that aggregate latent demand estimates are derived.

Industrial pumps excluding hydraulic fluid power pumps is specifically defined as follows:
3339111 Industrial pumps, except hydraulic fluid power pumps
33391111 Domestic water systems (pumps for farm and home use), excluding irrigation pumps
3339111110 Domestic water systems (pumps for farm and home use), excluding irrigation pumps
3339111167 Domestic water systems (including drivers), nonsubmersible pump systems (jet and nonjet)
3339111172 Domestic water systems (including drivers), submersible pump systems, up to 1 hp
3339111175 Domestic water systems (including drivers), submersible pump systems, over 1 hp to 3 hp
3339111178 Domestic water systems (including drivers), submersible pump systems, over 3 hp to 5 hp
3339111190 Domestic hand and windmill pumps, pump jacks, and cylinders, sold separately (including drivers)
33391112 Domestic sump pumps (1 hp or less) (including the value of the driver if shipped as a complete unit)
3339111220 Domestic sump pumps (1 hp or less) (including the value of the driver if shipped as a complete unit)
3339111235 Domestic sump pumps (including drivers), 1 hp or less, pedestal
3339111238 Domestic sump pumps (including drivers), 1 hp and under, submersible, 1/ 3 hp or less
3339111239 Domestic sump pumps (including drivers), 1 hp and under, submersible, over 1/3 hp
33391113 Oil-well and oil-field pumps, except boiler feed (including the value of the driver if shipped as a complete unit)
3339111330 Oil-well and oil-field pumps, except boiler feed (including the value of the driver if shipped as a complete unit)
3339111335 Value of drivers (motors, engines, etc.) sold with oil well and oil field pumps (except boiler feed)
3339111341 Oil-well and oil-field pumps, subsurface type for oil well pumping
3339111352 Oil-well and oil-field pumps, mud type (slush pumps)
3339111363 Other oil-well and oil-field pumps
33391114 Industrial pumps, except hydraulic fluid power pumps, automotive circulating pumps, and measuring and dispensing pumps
3339111401 Value of drivers (motors, engines, hydrostatic transmissions, etc.) sold with industrial pumps
3339111411 Centrifugal pumps, sewage type (non-submersible), vertical or horizontal with nonclog impeller, 12 in. and under
3339111412 Centrifugal pumps, sewage type (non-submersible), vertical or horizontal with nonclog impeller, more than 12 in.
3339111424 Centrifugal pumps, submersible effluent type (less than 1 in. solids handling capacity), less than 1 hp
3339111425 Centrifugal pumps, submersible effluent type (less than 1 in.

solids handling capacity), 1 hp and over
3339111428 Centrifugal pumps, submersible solids handling type (solids 1 in. to 2 in. inclusive), 1/2 hp or less
3339111429 Centrifugal pumps, submersible solids handling type (solids 1 in.

to 2 in. inclusive), more than 1/2 hp
333911142C Centrifugal pumps, submersible nonclog type (greater than 2 in. solids handling capacity), 3 in.

discharge and under
333911142E Centrifugal pumps, submersible nonclog type (greater than 2 in. solids handling capacity), discharge more than 3 in. but less than 7 in.
333911142G Centrifugal pumps, submersible nonclog type (greater than 2 in. solids handling capacity), 7 in.

and over discharge
333911142K Centrifugal pumps, submersible grinder type (incorporating a hardened stainless steel cutter mechanism to macerate the solids into a fine slurry), 2 hp and below
333911142M Centrifugal pumps, submersible grinder type (incorporating a hardened stainless steel cutter mechanism to macerate the solids into a fine slurry), more than 2 hp
3339111440 Industrial pumps, except hydraulic fluid power pumps, automotive circulating pumps, and measuring and dispensing pumps
3339111444 Centrifugal pumps, single and two stage, single and end suction, close coupled with driver, 1 in. discharge and under
3339111445 Centrifugal pumps, single and two stage, single and end suction, close coupled with driver, discharge more than 1 in., up to 2 in.
3339111447 Centrifugal pumps, single and two stage, single and end suction, close coupled with driver, over 2 in. discharge
3339111449 Centrifugal pumps, single and two stage, single suction, in-line, close coupled with driver, 2 in.

discharge and under
333911144A Centrifugal pumps, single and two stage, single suction, in-line, close coupled with driver, over 2 in. discharge
333911144C Centrifugal pumps, single stage, single suction, vertical, in-line frame, 2 in. discharge and under
333911144D Centrifugal pumps, single stage, single suction, vertical, in-line frame, over 2 in. discharge
333911144F Centrifugal pumps, single stage, single suction, frame or foot mounted, metallic pumps (built to National or International Standards ANSI B73.1 or ISO 2858), 2 in. discharge and under
333911144G Centrifugal pumps, single stage, single suction, frame or foot mounted, metallic pumps (built to National or International Standards ANSI B73.1 or ISO 2858), over 2 in. discharge
333911144J Centrifugal pumps, single stage, single suction, frame or foot mounted, nonmetallic pumps (built to National or International Standards ANSI B73.1 or ISO 2858), 2 in. discharge and under
333911144K Centrifugal pumps, single stage, single suction, frame or foot mounted, nonmetallic pumps (built to National or International Standards ANSI B73.1 or ISO 2858), over 2 in. discharge
333911144M Centrifugal pumps, single stage, single suction, frame or foot mounted, non-ANSI, non-ISO, with or without recessed impeller, 1 in. discharge and under
333911144N Centrifugal pumps, single stage, single suction, frame or foot mounted, non-ANSI, non-ISO, with or without recessed impeller; discharge more than 1 in., up to 2 in.
333911144R Centrifugal pumps, single stage, single suction, frame or foot mounted, non-ANSI, non-ISO, with or without recessed impeller, over 2 in. discharge
3339111451 Centrifugal pumps, single stage, single suction, replaceable elastomer lined or hard metal, frame or foot mounted, 1 in. discharge and under
3339111452 Centrifugal pumps, single stage, single suction, replaceable elastomer lined or hard metal, frame or foot mounted, discharge more than 1 in., up to 2 in.
3339111454 Centrifugal pumps, single stage, single suction, replaceable elastomer lined or hard metal, frame or foot mounted, over 2 in. discharge
3339111456 Centrifugal pumps, single stage, single suction, centerline mounted, 2 in.

discharge and under
3339111457 Centrifugal pumps, single stage, single suction, centerline mounted, over 2 in. discharge
3339111459 Centrifugal pumps, single stage, axially split, double suction, 4 in. discharge and under
333911145A Centrifugal pumps, single stage, axially split, double suction, discharge more than 4 in., up to 8 in.
333911145C Centrifugal pumps, single stage, axially split, double suction, over 8 in. discharge
333911145E Centrifugal pumps, single stage, radially split, double suction impeller pumps, API-610 compliant, 4 in. discharge and under
333911145F Centrifugal pumps, single stage, radially split, double suction impeller pumps, API-610 compliant, discharge more than 4 in., up to 8 in.
333911145H Centrifugal pumps, single stage, radially split, double suction impeller pumps, API-610 compliant, over 8 in. discharge
333911145K Centrifugal pumps, single stage, radially split, double suction impeller pumps, non-API compliant, 4 in. discharge and under
333911145L Centrifugal pumps, single stage, radially split, double suction impeller pumps, non-API compliant; discharge more than 4 in., up to 8 in.
333911145N Centrifugal pumps, single stage, radially split, double suction impeller pumps, non-API compliant, over 8 in. discharge
3339111461 Centrifugal pumps, multistage, single or double suction, diffuser design, radially split case, 4 in. discharge and under
3339111464 Centrifugal pumps, multistage, single or double suction, diffuser design, radially split case; discharge more than 4 in., up to 8 in.
3339111467 Centrifugal pumps, multistage, single or double suction, diffuser design, radially split case, over 8 in. discharge
333911146C Centrifugal pumps, multistage, single or double suction, volute or diffuser design, axially split case, 4 in. discharge and under
333911146E Centrifugal pumps, multistage, single or double suction, volute or diffuser design, axially split case, discharge more than 4 in., up to 8 in.
333911146H Centrifugal pumps, multistage, single or double suction, volute or diffuser design, axially split case, over 8 in. discharge
3339111471 Centrifugal pumps, sealless, magnetic drive, 1 in. discharge and under
3339111474 Centrifugal pumps, sealless, magnetic drive, discharge more than 1 in., up to 2 in.
3339111477 Centrifugal pumps, sealless, magnetic drive, over 2 in. discharge
333911147C Centrifugal pumps, sealless, canned motor, 1 in. discharge and under
333911147E Centrifugal pumps, sealless, canned motor, discharge more than 1 in., up to 2 in.
333911147H Centrifugal pumps, sealless, canned motor, over 2 in. discharge
3339111481 Centrifugal pumps, propeller and mixed flow, horizontal and vertical (including vertical turbine over 36 in.), 36 in. and under
3339111484 Centrifugal pumps, propeller and mixed flow, horizontal and vertical (including vertical turbine over 36 in.), over 36 in.
333911148K All other centrifugal pumps, 6 in. discharge and under
333911148M All other centrifugal pumps, over 6 in.

discharge
3339111493 Vertical turbine pumps, not exceeding 36 in. discharge (including deep- well), pump with submersible motor, bowl diameter 6 in. and under
3339111498 Vertical turbine pumps, not exceeding 36 in. discharge (including deep- well), pump with submersible motor, bowl diameter over 6 in.
333911149F Vertical turbine pumps, not exceeding 36 in. discharge (including deep- well), pump and bowl assemblies through 36 in.

(except can and pot type)
333911149N Vertical turbine pumps, not exceeding 36 in. discharge (including deep- well), can and pot type (pump and bowl assemblies, suction can and bowl type)
33391114C3 Reciprocating pumps, direct-acting steam-driven
33391114C7 Reciprocating pumps, driven by electric motor, engine, or steam turbine, reciprocating piston, plunger or diaphragm (not air operated) pumps
33391114D5 Diaphragm pumps (air operated)
33391114R1 Rotary pumps, 100 p.s.i. and under designed pressure; 10 g.p.m. and under designed capacity
33391114R3 Rotary pumps, 100 p.s.i. and under designed pressure; 11 to 99 g.p.m. designed capacity
33391114R5 Rotary pumps, 100 p.s.i. and under designed pressure; 100 to 299 g.p.m. designed capacity
33391114R7 Rotary pumps, 100 p.s.i. and under designed pressure; 300 g.p.m. and over designed capacity
33391114RA Rotary pumps, 101 to 249 p.s.i. designed pressure; 10 g.p.m. and under designed capacity
33391114RC Rotary pumps, 101 to 249 p.s.i. designed pressure; 11 to 99 g.p.m. designed capacity
33391114RE Rotary pumps, 101 to 249 p.s.i. designed pressure; 100 g.p.m., and over designed capacity
33391114RJ Rotary pumps, 250 to 500 p.s.i. designed pressure; 10 g.p.m. and under designed capacity
33391114RM Rotary pumps, 250 to 500 p.s.i. designed pressure; 11 g.p.m., and over designed capacity
33391114RR Rotary pumps, over 500 p.s.i. designed pressure
33391114T5 All other industrial pumps
33391115 Other pumps, except packaged pumps, hand pumps, automotive circulating pumps, locomotive pumps, hydraulic fluid power pumps, measuring and dispensing pumps, and industrial spraying equipment
3339111580 All other pumps (including drivers) (except automotive, hand, measuring and dispensing or service station, and hydraulic fluid power) (including oil burner and appliance, fire engine, etc.)
3339111590 Other pumps, except packaged pumps, hand pumps, automotive circulating pumps, locomotive pumps, hydraulic fluid power pumps, measuring and dispensing pumps, and industrial spraying equipment

This report was prepared from a variety of sources including excerpts from documents and official reports or databases published by the World Bank, the U.S. Department of Commerce, the U.S. State Department, various national agencies, the International Monetary Fund, the Central Intelligence Agency, various agencies from the United Nations (e.g. ILO, ITU, UNDP, etc.), and non-governmental sources, including ICON Group Ltd., Euromonitor, the World Resources Institute, Mintel, the U.S. Industrial Outlook, and various public sources cited in the trade press.

1.3.2 STEP 2. FILTERING AND SMOOTHING
Based on the aggregate view of industrial pumps excluding hydraulic fluid power pumps as defined above, data were then collected for as many similar countries as possible for that same definition, at the same level of the value chain. This generates a convenience sample of countries from which comparable figures are available.

If the series in question do not reflect the same accounting period, then adjustments are made. In order to eliminate short-term effects of business cycles, the series are smoothed using a 2-year moving average weighting scheme (longer weighting schemes do not substantially change the results).

If data are available for a country, but these reflect short-run aberrations due to exogenous shocks (such as would be the case of beef sales in a country stricken with foot and mouth disease), these observations were dropped or "filtered" from the analysis.

1.3.3 STEP 3. FILLING IN MISSING VALUES
In some cases, data are available for countries on a sporadic basis. In other cases, data from a country may be available for only one year.

From a Bayesian perspective, these observations should be given the greatest weight in estimating missing years. Assuming that other factors are held constant, the missing years are extrapolated using changes and growth in aggregate national income.

Based on the overriding philosophy of a long-run consumption function (defined earlier), countries which have missing data for any given year are estimated based on historical dynamics of aggregate income for that country.

1.3.4 STEP 4. VARYING PARAMETER, NON-LINEAR ESTIMATION
Given the data available from the first three steps, the latent demand in additional countries is estimated using a "varying-parameter cross-sectionally pooled time series model".

The interested reader can find longer discussions of this type of modeling in Studies in Global Econometrics (Advanced Studies in Theoretical and Applied Econometrics V. 30), by Henri Theil, et al., Kluwer Academic Publishers; ISBN: 0792336607; (June 1996), and in Principles of Econometrics, by Henri Theil John Wiley & Sons; ISBN: 0471858455; (December 1971), and in Econometric Models and Economic Forecasts by Robert S. Pindyck, Daniel L.

Rubinfeld McGraw Hill Text; ISBN: 0070500983; 3rd edition (December 1991). Simply stated, the effect of income on latent demand is assumed to be constant across countries unless there is empirical evidence to suggest that this effect varies (i.e., the slope of the income effect is not necessarily the same for all countries).

This assumption applies across countries along the aggregate consumption function, but also over time (i.e., not all countries are perceived to have the same income growth prospects over time and this effect can vary from country to country as well). Another way of looking at this is to say that latent demand for industrial pumps excluding hydraulic fluid power pumps is more likely to be similar across countries that have similar characteristics in terms of economic development (i.e., African countries will have similar latent demand structures controlling for the income variation across the pool of African countries). This approach is useful across countries for which some notion of non-linearity exists in the aggregate cross-country consumption function.

For some categories, however, the reader must realize that the numbers will reflect a country’s contribution to global latent demand and may never be realized in the form of local sales. For certain country-category combinations this will result in what at first glance will be odd results. For example, the latent demand for the category "space vehicles" will exist for Togo even though they have no space program.

The assumption is that if the economies in these countries did not exist, the world aggregate for these categories would be lower. The share attributed to these countries is based on a proportion of their income (however small) being used to consume the category in question (i.e., perhaps via resellers).

1.3.5 STEP 5. FIXED-PARAMETER LINEAR ESTIMATION
Nonlinearities are assumed in cases where filtered data exist along the aggregate consumption function. Because the world consists of more than 200 countries, there will always be those countries, especially toward the bottom of the consumption function, where non-linear estimation is simply not possible.


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