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The 2019-2024 World Outlook for Unitary Air Conditioners Excluding Air Source Heat Pumps

The 2019-2024 World Outlook for Unitary Air Conditioners Excluding Air Source Heat Pumps

  • January 2018
  • 290 pages
  • ID: 2002783

Summary

Table of Contents

This study covers the world outlook for unitary air conditioners excluding air source heat pumps across more than 190 countries. For each year reported, estimates are given for the latent demand, or potential industry earnings (P.I.E.), for the country in question (in millions of U.S. dollars), the percent share the country is of the region, and of the globe.

These comparative benchmarks allow the reader to quickly gauge a country vis-à-vis others. Using econometric models which project fundamental economic dynamics within each country and across countries, latent demand estimates are created.

This report does not discuss the specific players in the market serving the latent demand, nor specific details at the product level. The study also does not consider short-term cyclicalities that might affect realized sales.

The study, therefore, is strategic in nature, taking an aggregate and long-run view, irrespective of the players or products involved. This study does not report actual sales data (which are simply unavailable, in a comparable or consistent manner in virtually all of the countries of the world).

This study gives, however, my estimates for the worldwide latent demand, or the P.I.E., for unitary air conditioners excluding air source heat pumps. It also shows how the P.I.E. is divided across the world’s regional and national markets. For each country, I also show my estimates of how the P.I.E. grows over time (positive or negative growth). In order to make these estimates, a multi-stage methodology was employed that is often taught in courses on international strategic planning at graduate schools of business.

1.3 THE METHODOLOGY
In order to estimate the latent demand for unitary air conditioners excluding air source heat pumps on a worldwide basis, I used a multi-stage approach. Before applying the approach, one needs a basic theory from which such estimates are created.

In this case, I heavily rely on the use of certain basic economic assumptions. In particular, there is an assumption governing the shape and type of aggregate latent demand functions.

Latent demand functions relate the income of a country, city, state, household, or individual to realized consumption. Latent demand (often realized as consumption when an industry is efficient), at any level of the value chain, takes place if an equilibrium is realized.

For firms to serve a market, they must perceive a latent demand and be able to serve that demand at a minimal return. The single most important variable determining consumption, assuming latent demand exists, is income (or other financial resources at higher levels of the value chain). Other factors that can pivot or shape demand curves include external or exogenous shocks (i.e., business cycles), and or changes in utility for the product in question.

Ignoring, for the moment, exogenous shocks and variations in utility across countries, the aggregate relation between income and consumption has been a central theme in economics. The figure below concisely summarizes one aspect of problem.

In the 1930s, John Meynard Keynes conjectured that as incomes rise, the average propensity to consume would fall. The average propensity to consume is the level of consumption divided by the level of income, or the slope of the line from the origin to the consumption function.

He estimated this relationship empirically and found it to be true in the short-run (mostly based on cross-sectional data). The higher the income, the lower the average propensity to consume.

This type of consumption function is shown as "B" in the figure below (note the rather flat slope of the curve). In the 1940s, another macroeconomist, Simon Kuznets, estimated long-run consumption functions which indicated that the marginal propensity to consume was rather constant (using time series data across countries). This type of consumption function is show as "B" in the figure below (note the higher slope and zero-zero intercept).

The average propensity to consume is constant. For a general overview of this subject area, see Principles of Macroeconomics by N.

Gregory Mankiw, South-Western College Publishing; ISBN: 0030340594; 2nd edition (February 2002).

Is it declining or is it constant? A number of other economists, notably Franco Modigliani and Milton Friedman, in the 1950s (and Irving Fisher earlier), explained why the two functions were different using various assumptions on intertemporal budget constraints, savings, and wealth. The shorter the time horizon, the more consumption can depend on wealth (earned in previous years) and business cycles.

In the long-run, however, the propensity to consume is more constant. Similarly, in the long-run, households, industries, or countries with no income eventually have no consumption (wealth is depleted).

While the debate surrounding beliefs about how income and consumption are related and interesting, in this study a very particular school of thought is adopted. In particular, we are considering the latent demand for unitary air conditioners excluding air source heat pumps across some 190 countries.

The smallest have fewer than 10,000 inhabitants. I assume that all of these counties fall along a "long-run" aggregate consumption function.

This long-run function applies despite some of these countries having wealth; current income dominates the latent demand for unitary air conditioners excluding air source heat pumps. So, latent demand in the long-run has a zero intercept. However, I allow firms to have different propensities to consume (including being on consumption functions with differing slopes, which can account for differences in industrial organization, and end-user preferences).

Given this overriding philosophy, I will now describe the methodology used to create the latent demand estimates for unitary air conditioners excluding air source heat pumps. Since ICON Group has asked me to apply this methodology to a large number of categories, the rather academic discussion below is general and can be applied to a wide variety of categories, not just unitary air conditioners excluding air source heat pumps.

1.3.1 STEP 1. PRODUCT DEFINITION AND DATA COLLECTION
Any study of latent demand across countries requires that some standard be established to define "efficiently served". Having implemented various alternatives and matched these with market outcomes, I have found that the optimal approach is to assume that certain key countries are more likely to be at or near efficiency than others.

These countries are given greater weight than others in the estimation of latent demand compared to other countries for which no known data are available. Of the many alternatives, I have found the assumption that the world’s highest aggregate income and highest income-per-capita markets reflect the best standards for "efficiency".

High aggregate income alone is not sufficient (i.e., China has high aggregate income, but low income per capita and cannot be assumed to be efficient). Aggregate income can be operationalized in a number of ways, including gross domestic product (for industrial categories), or total disposable income (for household categories; population times average income per capita, or number of households times average household income per capita).

Brunei, Nauru, Kuwait, and Lichtenstein are examples of countries with high income per capita, but not assumed to be efficient, given low aggregate level of income (or gross domestic product); these countries have, however, high incomes per capita but may not benefit from the efficiencies derived from economies of scale associated with large economies.

Only countries with high income per capita and large aggregate income are assumed efficient. This greatly restricts the pool of countries to those in the OECD (Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development), like the United States, or the United Kingdom (which were earlier than other large OECD economies to liberalize their markets).

The selection of countries is further reduced by the fact that not all countries in the OECD report have industry revenues at the category level. Countries that typically have ample data at the aggregate level that meet the efficiency criteria include the United States, the United Kingdom, and in some cases France and Germany.

Is it declining or is it constant? A number of other economists, notably Franco Modigliani and Milton Friedman, in the 1950s (and Irving Fisher earlier), explained why the two functions were different using various assumptions on intertemporal budget constraints, savings, and wealth. The shorter the time horizon, the more consumption can depend on wealth (earned in previous years) and business cycles.

In the long-run, however, the propensity to consume is more constant. Similarly, in the long-run, households, industries, or countries with no income eventually have no consumption (wealth is depleted).

While the debate surrounding beliefs about how income and consumption are related and interesting, in this study a very particular school of thought is adopted. In particular, we are considering the latent demand for unitary air conditioners excluding air source heat pumps across some 190 countries.

The smallest have fewer than 10,000 inhabitants. I assume that all of these counties fall along a "long-run" aggregate consumption function.

This long-run function applies despite some of these countries having wealth; current income dominates the latent demand for unitary air conditioners excluding air source heat pumps. So, latent demand in the long-run has a zero intercept. However, I allow firms to have different propensities to consume (including being on consumption functions with differing slopes, which can account for differences in industrial organization, and end-user preferences).

Given this overriding philosophy, I will now describe the methodology used to create the latent demand estimates for unitary air conditioners excluding air source heat pumps. Since ICON Group has asked me to apply this methodology to a large number of categories, the rather academic discussion below is general and can be applied to a wide variety of categories, not just unitary air conditioners excluding air source heat pumps.

1.3.1 STEP 1. PRODUCT DEFINITION AND DATA COLLECTION
Any study of latent demand across countries requires that some standard be established to define "efficiently served". Having implemented various alternatives and matched these with market outcomes, I have found that the optimal approach is to assume that certain key countries are more likely to be at or near efficiency than others.

These countries are given greater weight than others in the estimation of latent demand compared to other countries for which no known data are available. Of the many alternatives, I have found the assumption that the world’s highest aggregate income and highest income-per-capita markets reflect the best standards for "efficiency".

High aggregate income alone is not sufficient (i.e., China has high aggregate income, but low income per capita and cannot be assumed to be efficient). Aggregate income can be operationalized in a number of ways, including gross domestic product (for industrial categories), or total disposable income (for household categories; population times average income per capita, or number of households times average household income per capita).

Brunei, Nauru, Kuwait, and Lichtenstein are examples of countries with high income per capita, but not assumed to be efficient, given low aggregate level of income (or gross domestic product); these countries have, however, high incomes per capita but may not benefit from the efficiencies derived from economies of scale associated with large economies.

Only countries with high income per capita and large aggregate income are assumed efficient. This greatly restricts the pool of countries to those in the OECD (Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development), like the United States, or the United Kingdom (which were earlier than other large OECD economies to liberalize their markets).

The selection of countries is further reduced by the fact that not all countries in the OECD report have industry revenues at the category level. Countries that typically have ample data at the aggregate level that meet the efficiency criteria include the United States, the United Kingdom, and in some cases France and Germany.

Latent demand is therefore estimated using data collected for relatively efficient markets from independent data sources (e.g. Euromonitor, Mintel, Thomson Financial Services, the U.S. Industrial Outlook, the World Resources Institute, the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development, various agencies from the United Nations, industry trade associations, the International Monetary Fund, and the World Bank).

Depending on original data sources used, the definition of unitary air conditioners excluding air source heat pumps is established. In the case of this report, the data were reported at the aggregate level, with no further breakdown or definition. In other words, any potential products and/or services that might be incorporated within unitary air conditioners excluding air source heat pumps fall under this category.

Public sources rarely report data at the disaggregated level in order to protect private information from individual firms that might dominate a specific product-market. These sources will therefore aggregate across components of a category and report only the aggregate to the public. While private data are certainly available, this report only relies on public data at the aggregate level without reliance on the summation of various category components.

In other words, this report does not aggregate a number of components to arrive at the "whole". Rather, it starts with the "whole", and estimates the whole for all countries and the world at large (without needing to know the specific parts that went into the whole in the first place).

Given this caveat, this study covers unitary air conditioners excluding air source heat pumps as defined by the North American Industrial Classification system or NAICS (pronounced "nakes").

The NAICS code for unitary air conditioners excluding air source heat pumps is 333415E. It is for this definition that aggregate latent demand estimates are derived.

Unitary air conditioners excluding air source heat pumps is specifically defined as follows:
333415E Unitary air conditioners, except air source heat pumps
333415E0 Unitary air~conditioners, except air source heat pumps
333415E000 Unitary air~conditioners, except air source heat pumps
333415E005 Unitary air~conditioners, recreational vehicle air~conditioner
333415E007 Unitary air~conditioners, single package air~conditioners, with or without evaporator fans (including refrigeration chassis and remote~condenser type), horizontal, under 27,000 Btu per hour
333415E009 Unitary air~conditioners, single package air~conditioners, with or without evaporator fans (including refrigeration chassis and remote~condenser type), horizontal, 27,000 to 32,999 Btu per hour
333415E011 Unitary air~conditioners, single package air~conditioners, with or without evaporator fans (including refrigeration chassis and remote~condenser type), horizontal, 33,000 to 53,999 Btu per hour
333415E013 Unitary air~conditioners, single package air~conditioners, with or without evaporator fans (including refrigeration chassis and remote~condenser type), horizontal, 54,000 to 64,999 Btu per hour
333415E015 Unitary air~conditioners, single package air~conditioners, with or without evaporator fans (including refrigeration chassis and remote~condenser type), horizontal, 65,000 to 96,999 Btu per hour
333415E017 Unitary air~conditioners, single package air~conditioners, with or without evaporator fans (including refrigeration chassis and remote~condenser type), horizontal, 97,000 to 134,999 Btu per hour
333415E019 Unitary air~conditioners, single package air~conditioners, with or without evaporator fans (including refrigeration chassis and remote~condenser type), horizontal, 135,000 to 184,999 Btu per hour
333415E021 Unitary air~conditioners, single package air~conditioners, with or without evaporator fans (including refrigeration chassis and remote~condenser type), horizontal, 185,000 to 249,999 Btu per hour
333415E023 Unitary air~conditioners, single package air~conditioners, with or without evaporator fans (including refrigeration chassis and remote~condenser type), horizontal, 250,000 to 319,999 Btu per hour
333415E035 Unitary air~conditioners, single package air~conditioners, with or without evaporator fans (including refrigeration chassis and remote~condenser type), horizontal, 320,000 to 379,999 Btu per hour
333415E041 Unitary air~conditioners, single package air~conditioners, with or without evaporator fans (including refrigeration chassis and remote~condenser type), horizontal, 380,000 Btu per hour and over
333415E043 Unitary air~conditioners, single package air~conditioners, with or without evaporator fans (including refrigeration chassis and remote~condenser type), other than horizontal, under 54,000 Btu per hour
333415E045 Unitary air~conditioners, single package air~conditioners, with or without evaporator fans (incl. refrigeration chassis and remote~condenser type), other than horizontal, 54,000 to 64,999 Btu per hour
333415E047 Unitary air~conditioners, single package air~conditioners, with or without evaporator fans (including refrigeration chassis and remote~condenser type), other than horizontal, 65,000 to 96,999 Btu hour
333415E049 Unitary air~conditioners, single package air~conditioners, with or without evaporator fans (incl refrigeration chassis and remote~condenser type), other than horizontal, 97,000 to 134,999 Btu hour
333415E051 Unitary air~conditioners, single package air~conditioners, with or without evaporator fans (incl refrigeration chassis and remote~condenser type), other than horizontal, 135,000 to 184,999 Btu per hr
333415E053 Unitary air conditioners, single package air~ conditioners, with or without evaporator fans (incl refrigeration chassis and remote~condenser type), other than horizontal, 185,000 Btu per hour and over
333415E055 Unitary air~conditioners, year~round air~conditioners, single package and remote~condenser type (except heat pumps), under 33,000 Btu per hour number . S MA333M
333415E057 Unitary air~conditioners, year~round air~conditioners, single package and remote~condenser type (except heat pumps), 33,000 to 38,999 Btu per hour
333415E059 Unitary air~conditioners, year~round air~conditioners, single package and remote~condenser type (except heat pumps), 39,000 to 43,999 Btu per hour
333415E061 Unitary air conditioners, year~round air~conditioners, single package and remote~condenser type (except heat pumps), 44,000 to 53,999 Btu per hour
333415E063 Unitary air~conditioners, year~round air~conditioners, single package and remote~condenser type (except heat pumps), 54,000 to 64,999 Btu per hour
333415E065 Unitary air~conditioners, year~round air~ conditioners, single package and remote~condenser type (except heat pumps), 65,000 to 134,999 Btu per hour
333415E067 Unitary air~conditioners, year~round air~conditioners, single package and remote~condenser type (except heat pumps), 135,000 to 184,999 Btu per hour
333415E069 Unitary air~conditioners, year~round air~conditioners, single package and remote~condenser type (except heat pumps), 185,000 to 249,999 Btu per hour
333415E071 Unitary air~conditioners, year~round air~conditioners, single package and remote~condenser type (except heat pumps), 250,000 to 319,999 Btu per hour
333415E073 Unitary air~conditioners, year~round air~conditioners, single package and remote~condenser type (except heat pumps), 320,000 to 379,999 Btu per hour
333415E075 Unitary air~conditioners, year~round air~conditioners, single package and remote~condenser type (except heat pumps), 380,000 to 539,999 Btu per hour
333415E077 Unitary air~conditioners, year~round air~conditioners, single package and remote~condenser type (except heat pumps), 540,000 to 639,999 Btu per hour
333415E079 Unitary air~conditioners, year~round air~conditioners, single package and remote~condenser type (except heat pumps), 640,000 Btu per hour and over
333415E081 Unitary air~conditioners, water source heat pumps (except room air~ conditioners)
333415E082 Unitary air~conditioners, split system air~conditioning condensing units, under 22,000 Btu per hour
333415E083 Unitary air~conditioners, split system air~conditioning condensing units, 22,000 to 26,999 Btu per hour
333415E085 Unitary air~conditioners, split system air~conditioning condensing units, 27,000 to 32,999 Btu per hour
333415E087 Unitary air~conditioners, split system air~conditioning condensing units, 33,000 to 38,999 Btu per hour
333415E089 Unitary air~conditioners, split system air~conditioning condensing units, 39,000 to 43,999 Btu per ourh
333415E091 Unitary air~conditioners, split system air~conditioning condensing units, 44,000 to 53,999 Btu per hour
333415E093 Unitary air~conditioners, split system air~conditioning condensing units, 54,000 to 64,999 Btu per hour
333415E095 Unitary air~conditioners, split system air~conditioning condensing units, 65,000 to 96,999 Btu per hour
333415E097 Unitary air~conditioners, split system air~conditioning condensing units, 97,000 to 134,999 Btu per hour
333415E099 Unitary air~conditioners, split system air~conditioning condensing units, 135,000 to 184,999 Btu per hour
333415E09A Unitary air~conditioners, split system air~conditioning condensing units, 185,000 to 249,999 Btu per hour
333415E09C Unitary air~conditioners, split system air~conditioning condensing units, 250,000 to 319,999 Btu per hour
333415E09E Unitary air~conditioners, split system air~conditioning condensing units, 320,000 to 379,999 Btu per hour
333415E09G Unitary air~conditioners, split system air~conditioning condensing units, 380,000 to 539,999 Btu per hour
333415E09J Unitary air~conditioners, split system air~conditioning condensing units, 540,000 to 639,999 Btu per hour
333415E09L Unitary air~conditioners, split system air~conditioning condensing units, 640,000 Btu per hour and over
333415E09M Unitary air conditioners, split system air~conditioning coils with blower
333415E09P Unitary air conditioners, split system air~conditioning coils without blower
333415E1 Unitary air-conditioners, except air source heat pumps
333415E100 Unitary air-conditioners, except air source heat pumps
333415E105 Unitary air-conditioners, recreational vehicle
333415E107 Unitary air-conditioners, single package, with or without evaporator fan (including chassis and remote condenser type), horizontal, under 27,000 Btuh
333415E109 Unitary air-conditioners, single package, with or without evaporator fan (including chassis and remote condenser type), horizontal, 27,000 to 32,999 Btuh
333415E111 Unitary air-conditioners, single package, with or without evaporator fan (including chassis and remote condenser type), horizontal, 33,000 to 53,999 Btuh
333415E113 Unitary air-conditioners, single package, with or without evaporator fan (including chassis and remote condenser type), horizontal, 54,000 to 64,999 Btuh
333415E115 Unitary air-conditioners, single package, with or without evaporator fan (including chassis and remote condenser type), horizontal, 65,000 to 96,999 Btuh
333415E117 Unitary air-conditioners, single package, with or without evaporator fan (including chassis and remote condenser type), horizontal, 97,000 to 134,999 Btuh
333415E119 Unitary air-conditioners, single package, with or without evaporator fan (including chassis and remote condenser type), horizontal, 135,000 to 184,999 Btuh
333415E121 Unitary air-conditioners, single package, with or without evaporator fan (including chassis and remote condenser type), horizontal, 185,000 to 249,999 Btuh
333415E123 Unitary air-conditioners, single package, with or without evaporator fan (including chassis and remote condenser type), horizontal, 250,000 to 319,999 Btuh
333415E135 Unitary air-conditioners, single package, with or without evaporator fan (including chassis and remote condenser type), horizontal, 320,000 to 379,999 Btuh
333415E141 Unitary air-conditioners, single package, with or without evaporator fan (including chassis and remote condenser type), horizontal, 380,000 Btuh and over
333415E143 Unitary air-conditioners, single package, with or without evaporator fan (including chassis and remote condenser type), other (except horizontal), under 54,000 Btuh
333415E145 Unitary air-conditioners, single package, with or without evaporator fan (including chassis and remote condenser type), other (except horizontal), 54,000 to 64,999 Btuh
333415E147 Unitary air-conditioners, single package, with or without evaporator fan (including chassis and remote condenser type), other (except horizontal), 65,000 to 96,999 Btuh
333415E149 Unitary air-conditioners, single package, with or without evaporator fan (including chassis and remote condenser type), other (except horizontal), 97,000 to 134,999 Btuh
333415E151 Unitary air-conditioners, single package, with or without evaporator fan (including chassis and remote condenser type), other (except horizontal), 135,000 to 184,999 Btuh
333415E153 Unitary air-conditioners, single package, with or without evaporator fan (including chassis and remote condenser type), other (except horizontal), 185,000 Btuh and over
333415E155 Unitary air-conditioners, year-round, single package and remote condenser type (except heat pumps), under 33,000 Btuh
333415E157 Unitary air-conditioners, year-round, single package and remote condenser type (except heat pumps), 33,000 to 38,999 Btuh
333415E159 Unitary air-conditioners, year-round, single package and remote condenser type (except heat pumps), 39,000 to 43,999 Btuh
333415E161 Unitary air-conditioners, year-round, single package and remote condenser type (except heat pumps), 44,000 to 53,999 Btuh
333415E163 Unitary air-conditioners, year-round, single package and remote condenser type (except heat pumps), 54,000 to 64,999 Btuh
333415E165 Unitary air-conditioners, year-round, single package and remote condenser type (except heat pumps), 65,000 to 134,999 Btuh
333415E167 Unitary air-conditioners, year-round, single package and remote condenser type (except heat pumps), 135,000 to 184,999 Btuh
333415E169 Unitary air-conditioners, year-round, single package and remote condenser type (except heat pumps), 185,000 to 249,999 Btuh
333415E171 Unitary air-conditioners, year-round, single package and remote condenser type (except heat pumps), 250,000 to 319,999 Btuh
333415E173 Unitary air-conditioners, year-round, single package and remote condenser type (except heat pumps), 320,000 to 379,999 Btuh
333415E175 Unitary air-conditioners, year-round, single package and remote condenser type (except heat pumps), 380,000 to 539,999 Btuh
333415E177 Unitary air-conditioners, year-round, single package and remote condenser type (except heat pumps), 540,000 to 639,999 Btuh
333415E179 Unitary air-conditioners, year-round, single package and remote condenser type (except heat pumps), 640,000 Btuh and over
333415E181 Water source heat pumps (except room air-conditioners)
333415E182 Unitary air-conditioners, split system condensing units, under 22,000 Btuh
333415E183 Unitary air-conditioners, split system condensing units, 22,000 to 26,999 Btuh
333415E185 Unitary air-conditioners, split system condensing units, 27,000 to 32,999 Btuh
333415E187 Unitary air-conditioners, split system condensing units, 33,000 to 38,999 Btuh
333415E189 Unitary air-conditioners, split system condensing units, 39,000 to 43,999 Btuh
333415E191 Unitary air-conditioners, split system condensing units, 44,000 to 53,999 Btuh
333415E193 Unitary air-conditioners, split system condensing units, 54,000 to 64,999 Btuh
333415E195 Unitary air-conditioners, split system condensing units, 65,000 to 96,999 Btuh
333415E197 Unitary air-conditioners, split system condensing units, 97,000 to 134,999 Btuh
333415E199 Unitary air-conditioners, split system condensing units, 135,000 to 184,999 Btuh
333415E19A Unitary air-conditioners, split system condensing units, 185,000 to 249,999 Btuh
333415E19C Unitary air-conditioners, split system condensing units, 250,000 to 319,999 Btuh
333415E19E Unitary air-conditioners, split system condensing units, 320,000 to 379,999 Btuh
333415E19G Unitary air-conditioners, split system condensing units, 380,000 to 539,999 Btuh
333415E19J Unitary air-conditioners, split system condensing units, 540,000 to 639,999 Btuh
333415E19L Unitary air-conditioners, split system condensing units, 640,000 Btuh and over
333415E19M Unitary air-conditioners, split system coils, with blower
333415E19P Unitary air-conditioners, split system coils, without blower

This report was prepared from a variety of sources including excerpts from documents and official reports or databases published by the World Bank, the U.S. Department of Commerce, the U.S. State Department, various national agencies, the International Monetary Fund, the Central Intelligence Agency, various agencies from the United Nations (e.g. ILO, ITU, UNDP, etc.), and non-governmental sources, including ICON Group Ltd., Euromonitor, the World Resources Institute, Mintel, the U.S. Industrial Outlook, and various public sources cited in the trade press.

1.3.2 STEP 2. FILTERING AND SMOOTHING
Based on the aggregate view of unitary air conditioners excluding air source heat pumps as defined above, data were then collected for as many similar countries as possible for that same definition, at the same level of the value chain. This generates a convenience sample of countries from which comparable figures are available.

If the series in question do not reflect the same accounting period, then adjustments are made. In order to eliminate short-term effects of business cycles, the series are smoothed using a 2-year moving average weighting scheme (longer weighting schemes do not substantially change the results).

If data are available for a country, but these reflect short-run aberrations due to exogenous shocks (such as would be the case of beef sales in a country stricken with foot and mouth disease), these observations were dropped or "filtered" from the analysis.

1.3.3 STEP 3. FILLING IN MISSING VALUES
In some cases, data are available for countries on a sporadic basis. In other cases, data from a country may be available for only one year.

From a Bayesian perspective, these observations should be given the greatest weight in estimating missing years. Assuming that other factors are held constant, the missing years are extrapolated using changes and growth in aggregate national income.

Based on the overriding philosophy of a long-run consumption function (defined earlier), countries which have missing data for any given year are estimated based on historical dynamics of aggregate income for that country.

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Purchase Reports From Reputable Market Research Publishers
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Indonesia Air Conditioners Market By Product Type (Light Commercial, Chillers, VRF, etc), By End Use Sector (Residential & Commercial/Industrial), By Distribution Channel, By Season, By Price Segment, ...

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India Passenger Car Air Conditioners Market - Competition Forecast & Opportunities, 2023

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India Passenger Car Air Conditioners Market By Vehicle Type (Hatchback, MUV, Sedan & CUV), By Technology (Automatic & Manual/Semi-Automatic), By Compressor Type (Variable Displacement & Fixed Displacement), ...

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Affected by the “subsidy fraud” scandals and the shrinking subsidies for battery electric and hybrid buses, new energy bus sales have fallen in China. In 2017, China produced a total of 105,214 new ...


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