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Weekly Economic Briefings > Eurozone Weekly Economic Briefing > Eurozone

  • July 2017
  • 9 pages
  • Oxford Economics
Report ID: 2013254

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Recent indicators continue to point to a very robust performance in Q2, with GDP likely to have expanded by as much as 0.8% q/q. But there are growing signs that the survey responses have begun to turn, which suggests we have seen this cycle's high in the activity indicators. This is probably the result of euro appreciation and reflects an economy transitioning to a more mature point in the cycle where profitability may have already peaked.

We therefore expect the pace of growth to moderate in H2 this year and that this will be reflected in next week's crop of business surveys. For the ECB, there continues to be a strong desire not to do anything that could prompt a further upward move in either bond yields or the exchange rate. We therefore expect it to tread water over the summer before announcing changes to its asset purchase programme in the autumn.

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