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World Biofuels Market, Freedonia

  • September 2014
  • 385 pages
  • Freedonia
Report ID: 2355853

Summary

Table of Contents

World demand to be driven by government policies

World biofuel demand will continue to rise through 2018, supported by government policies designed to promote energy independence, support domestic agriculture, and reduce the emission of global warming gases. Healthy growth will be experienced in all regions with the exception of North America, where conflicting government regulations and waning public support in the United States -- the world’s largest market for biofuels -- will limit advances. Increases in biodiesel demand will outpace those of bioethanol, reflecting greater global growth in distillate fuel consumption. However, next generation advanced biofuels such as biobutanol, renewable diesel, and biocrude-derived diesel and gasoline will see the fastest growth.

European countries to post strong demand growth

Long term policy goals targeted at ensuring energy security and reducing greenhouse gas emissions will continue to be the primary driver of biofuel demand growth going forward. Strong growth in Western Europe and the European Union (EU) member countries of Eastern Europe will reflect EU efforts to source 20 percent of their energy needs from renewable resources by 2020. However, to fully meet this goal, EU member countries may be forced to relax their position on minimizing the use of biofuels associated with indirect land use change. Healthy growth will also occur in the Asia/Pacific and Central and South America regions where a number of countries will rely on biofuels to help meet rising motor vehicle fuel demand. Similar policy goals will drive gains in the Africa/Mideast region, albeit from a very small base.

North America to show limited biofuel gains

Contrasting the growth throughout much of the world will be the limited gains in North America. The biggest impact will come from the situation in the United States where conflicting regulations on bioethanol use in gasoline, as well as declining political and public support for the biofuel mandate, will contribute to a practical cap on US bioethanol consumption over the forecast period. Biodiesel demand will also appear to suffer due to comparison with a particularly strong 2013 base year. While demand for other, more advanced biofuels will climb rapidly, it will not be sufficient to offset the weakness in bioethanol and biodiesel demand. Outside of the US, a lack of new policy targets in Canada will limit growth there, while demand in Mexico will be held back by a lack of domestic production capacity, and biofuels’ higher cost.

Bioethanol, biodiesel to remain dominant biofuels

Bioethanol and biodiesel will continue to be the two dominant types of biofuel going forward, reflecting their well established technologies and integration into the global fuel supply system. However, growing concern about the use of food crops to produce these biofuels (maize and wheat for bioethanol, vegetable oils for biodiesel), as well as concerns about the destruction -- directly or indirectly -- of rainforests for biofuel production, have resulted in policies and regulations that will favor the greater use of advanced biofuels with better environmental profiles. Cellulosic ethanol, as well as biomass-derived diesel and gasoline, will benefit, as will biobutanol and renewable diesel. The latter two will also experience strong demand due to their compatibility with existing fuel transport and blending operations.

Study coverage

This upcoming industry study, World Biofuels, presents historical demand and production data (2003, 2008, 2013) as well as forecasts for 2018 and 2023 by product, world region, and for 28 countries. The study also considers market environment factors, reviews technology, evaluates company market share and profiles 32 global industry participants.

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