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Country Report Turkey September 2017

Country Report Turkey September 2017

  • September 2017
  • ID: 2358790
  • Format: PDF
  • By The Economist Intelligence Unit

Summary

Table of Contents

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Outlook for 2017-21



  • Despite a narrow victory and allegations of vote fraud in the presidential reform referendum on April 16th, the president, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, will move ahead with his plan to install a presidential system of government.
  • The Economist Intelligence Unit's baseline forecast is that Mr Erdogan and his ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP) will win the next presidential and parliamentary elections. These are due in late 2019 but could be called earlier.
  • Given the allegations of vote fraud and the close election outcome, we expect political instability risk to remain high. This is likely to delay economic reform efforts and hamper the country's economic recovery.
  • We expect the government to continue loosening fiscal policy to boost economic growth, widening the budget deficit from 1.1% of GDP in 2016 to a still moderate 1.7% of GDP per year on average in 2017-21.
  • We forecast that real GDP growth will average 5.5% in 2017 and 4.5% per year in 2018-21, assuming that domestic political conditions do not deteriorate sharply in the next few years and foreign investor confidence in Turkey holds up.
  • The Central Bank of Turkey is likely to keep monetary policy tight to ease infla-tionary pressures and prevent another sharp depreciation of the lira.
  • We expect smaller current-account deficits in the forecast period (2017-21) than in 2010-14, but they will still be large enough to make it difficult for Turkey to meet its external financing needs as global liquidity conditions tighten.


Review



  • On September 7th the chairman of the Sovereign Wealth Fund was dismissed. The official explanation was a failure to meet targets. On September 8th Mr Erdogan called for the fund's reorganisation.
  • On August 22nd the Ministry of Defence announced that seven generals and admirals had resigned. The resignations reflect the simmering tensions within the military following last year's failed coup.
  • On August 18th Mr Erdogan urged Turks in Germany not to back any main-stream parties at the German federal election on September 24th. His remarks were the latest in a war of words between Turkey and the EU.
  • In the second quarter of 2017 real GDP expanded by 5.1% year on year, according to unadjusted national accounts data from the Turkish Statistical Institute (Turkstat).
  • In August consumer prices rose by 0.5% month on month (unadjusted), according to Turkstat. As a result, the year-on-year rate of inflation rebounded to 10.6%, from 9.8% in July.


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