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Country Report Ukraine September 2017

Country Report Ukraine September 2017

  • September 2017
  • ID: 2379044
  • Format: PDF
  • The Economist Intelligence Unit


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Outlook for 2017-21

  • The Economist Intelligence Unit expects the government to serve out its term to 2019, although political instability remains high.
  • The diplomatic, propaganda, economic and military conflict with Russia over the Donbas region looks set to endure throughout the forecast period (2017-21). The Minsk II agreement will not end the conflict in eastern Ukraine.
  • Ukraine is gradually turning towards the West, as shown by free-trade agreements with the EU and Canada coming into force this year.
  • Economic recovery is palpable but the path to economic stabilisation remains bumpy. The release of new tranches of the IMF loan looks unlikely before 2018 owing to delays in implementing reforms, such as raising energy tariffs.
  • We forecast that real GDP growth will decelerate to 1.7% in 2017. In 2018 a managed slowdown in China and lower international steel prices will result in growth of 1.3%. In 2019-21 we forecast real GDP growth will average 2%.
  • We expect the hryvnya to depreciate slightly against the US dollar in 2017. A drop in steel prices will cause further currency depreciation in 2018. Inflation will stay high in 2017 before starting to recede in 2018.


  • On September 1st an association agreement between Ukraine and the EU came into force. This long-awaited agreement is a symbolic milestone-it is what led to the 2013-14 Maidan revolution and change of government.
  • On August 17th the prime minister, Volodymyr Groysman, said that the government would not raise energy prices in the 2017-18 winter period.
  • On August 1st a free-trade agreement between Ukraine and Canada came into force. This agreement exemplifies Ukraine's turn towards the West.
  • On July 31st Centrenergo, the Ukrainian state energy company, announced that it would import 700,000 tonnes of anthracite coal per year from Xcoal Energy, a US company, with a first shipment planned for September.
  • On July 24th the State Property Fund of Ukraine announced the privatisation of eight companies. The sales amount to HRN4.4bn (US$171m).
  • In the second quarter real GDP grew by 2.4% year on year, according to preliminary data from the State Statistics Service.
  • In July year-on-year inflation reached 15.9%-its highest rate since March 2016.
  • Industrial production contracted by 2.6% year on year in July, compared with 3.9% year-on-year growth in June. This takes the decline of industrial production for the first seven months of 2017 to 0.5%.

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