1. Market Research
Country Report Ghana September 2017

Country Report Ghana September 2017

  • September 2017
  • ID: 2557272

Summary

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Outlook for 2017-21



  • Ghana's overall political stability is not in question, but the fiercely contested political landscape will cause significant tension between the ruling New Patriotic Party (NPP) and the opposition National Democratic Congress.
  • The NPP's ambitious industrialisation programme will proceed more slowly than planned, given a tight fiscal position and the need to preserve debt sustainability.
  • Real GDP growth will be boosted to an average of 6.4% a year in 2017-18 by new oil and gas production, and remain robust in 2019-21, averaging 5.4%, on the back of greater power reliability and an improving business environment.
  • Inflation will decline but remain in double digits into 2018 amid accommodative monetary policy and rising domestic demand. After an election-related uptick in 2020, inflation will ease in 2021.
  • The cedi will remain prone to periods of volatility, given a dependence on commodity exports for hard-currency earnings and changing trends in investor sentiment to emerging markets.
  • The current-account deficit will generally narrow as a proportion of GDP in 2017-21 as new oil output comes on stream. However, rising profit remittances and strengthening import demand will prevent a move into surplus.


Review



  • The government has claimed that construction of 51 factories will have started by the end of the year as part of its manifesto pledge to establish a factory in each of Ghana's 216 districts.
  • The finance minister, Ken Ofori-Atta, gave a mid-year budget review to parliament on July 31st. Revenue came in well below budget, but underspending meant the overall deficit target was met.
  • On August 30th the IMF agreed a year's extension of Ghana's extended credit facility. The delay was needed for Ghana to meet the programme targets after major slippages in recent years.
  • Ghana Commercial Bank (GCB) took over the operations and most assets and liabilities of UT Bank and Capital Bank on August 14th after the two small banks became insolvent.
  • The government has published plans to sell a majority stake in thermal generators owned by the state-owned power producer, the Volta River Authority, as it grapples with a state-dominated power sector beset by financial and management deficiencies.


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