1. Market Research
Country Report Mexico September 2017

Country Report Mexico September 2017

  • September 2017
  • ID: 2557465
  • Format: PDF
  • The Economist Intelligence Unit


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Outlook for 2017-21

  • Preparations for the July 2018 elections will dominate politics. The president, Enrique Peña Nieto, will be weakened during the remainder of his term owing to public discontent with institutional defects, corruption and crime.
  • Anti--establishment sentiment will keep Andrés Manuel López Obrador of the leftist Movimiento Regeneración Nacional (Morena) in the lead in the presidential race, and The Economist Intelligence Unit expects him to win.
  • Despite a tight monetary stance and fears over US trade policy, GDP will grow by 2.4% in 2017, before easing as election concerns rise. Growth will slow notably in 2020 when the US dips into recession, before picking up thereafter.
  • The government will keep fiscal policy tight amid continuing weak oil prices and to avoid any negative effects of global volatility. But deficits will persist, contributing to a rising debt stock, which will reach 59% of GDP in 2021.
  • Average consumer price inflation will exceed the 2-4% target in 2017 before gradually easing thereafter as the effect of petrol price increases at the start of this year fades.
  • After strengthening thus far in 2017, the peso will weaken amid uncertainty over the 2018 elections and trade talks with the US, and as US interest rates rise. It will strengthen in 2021, but the risk of volatility will persist.
  • After narrowing in 2017 the current-account deficit will increase to a peak of 2.7% of GDP in 2020, before shrinking thereafter. It will remain manageable and will be financed by foreign direct investment and portfolio inflows.


  • Two opposition parties, the Partido Acción Nacional and the Partido de la Revolución Democrática, formed an alliance in September to field a joint presidential candidate in 2018. The selection process has not yet been decided.
  • The economy grew by 1.8% year on year in the second quarter, down from 2.8% in the first. But the slowdown was due to seasonal factors; in seasonally adjusted terms, growth was faster in the second quarter than in the first.
  • Crude oil production continued to slide in July, dipping to below the 2m barrels/day mark for the first time in 22 years. Falling output from older fields, notably Cantarell, has not been offset by rising output elsewhere.
  • Annual inflation hit 6.7% in August, the highest rate since February 2001. Despite this, the Banco de México (the central bank), kept its policy rate on hold at 7% in August, after a prolonged tightening cycle.
  • The current-account deficit shrank to a seven-year low in the second quarter, to just US$321m. On an annualised basis, the central bank estimates this to be just over 0.1% of GDP.

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